I want to go on record today, in the first minutes of January 27th, in making a wild-eyed prediction: The next Democratic Party Convention will be the first contested convention of my lifetime. We won't know who the Democratic nominee is until the last day of the convention... and it will be a good thing.
For the first time in decades the convention will mean something. There's gonna be persuasive speaches and horse trading and arm twisting and unscripted drama. It's going to be exciting and contentious and - if embraced by all involved - put the Democrats on track to decimate the Republicans nation-wide.
We're in a strange situation with four front-runners going neck-and-neck. I haven't looked over the numbers too carefully but it's obvious that in some states one candidate has a lead over others, but nobody's dominating the field. Edwards and Clark might have the upper-hand over Dean and Kerry in the south, but Dean will pull the younger liberal wired states (e.g. California?) and for some reason I expect Kerry to do well in the Great Lakes. I expect Edwards will sweep the Atlantic south and Clark will take Texas. Basically, with four strong regional/demographic candidates you can split the country into quarters and nobody has a "lock" on the nomination going in.
Some people will consider this the end of the Dems' chances in the general election, calling it proof that the party is divided. Others will celebrate the convention as American Democracy in action - a revival of the great nominating conventions of American history.
While the Republicans convene to crown their uncontested champion in three days of scripted fluff and State of the Union re-hashes, the Democrats will be staging the most closely watched reality show of the season.
Imagine a convention that actually matters.