In today's NYT, the week in review (
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/08/weekinreview/08PURD.html)has a mostly useless review of the balance of power in red and blue states (somehow didn't bother to talk about the actual politics in the various states).
However, buried in the body of the article was a great piece of information.
"Howard Dean's advisers confessed that his standing in Iowa dropped 10 points after the revelation that he had criticized the state's caucuses four years earlier on Canadian television. "
10 points due to Lehane's timely release of the Dr. belitting the Iowa caucuses from 4 years ago. The little sucker probably had this tape for a couple of months and waited until the last week to get it out. That is some dirty and effective campaigning.
Given that Kerry won with 38 to Dean's 18, this one factor could have put the state back into a tie (who knows, however, if all the 10 points went to Kerry or to Edwards). Regardless, it changed the landscape of Iowa and the election.