This week Howard Dean announced
"Dean's Dozen," a dozen (actually 14) candidates that had garnered the official support of his organization, Democracy for America:
Our new organization - Democracy for America - is dedicated to using its resources to support those candidates in their fight to take our country back from the right-wing conservatives who dominate our government. Today, Democracy for America announces the Dean Dozen - twelve diverse candidates that represent the spirit of grassroots democracy. These will be tough races, and not all of the Dean Dozen may win. However, they will all spread the message that to change America progressives must compete.
Well, his dozen is a peculiar list. It's very difficult to discern what strategic considerations Dean and his staff put into their choices, except possibly that these folks are being rewarded for their loyalty to Dean's candidacy. How else to explain Dean's decision to target the resources of his still significant fundraising and activist base to this collection of campaigns (election data can be found here by clicking a state, and then going to the Secretary of State to find the agency that administers elections):
· Four candidates for State Representative in districts which in 2002 were overwhelmingly Republican, so much so that some couldn't even attract a Democratic candidate.
· One candidate who already won her primary for an overwhelmingly Democratic seat in the California State Assembly.
· A candidate for a closely contested California State Assembly seat.
· A primary candidate for an overwhelmingly Democratic State Representative seat in Missouri.
· Three candidates for down-ballot offices in Arizona who have yet to even qualify for the ballot.
· A candidate for county office in Florida.
· One of ten primary candidates for Dick Gephardt's open (and heavily Democratic) Congressional Seat.
· The Democratic candidate running against Tom DeLay, who is one of the least vulnerable members of Congress.
· Barack Obama, an incredibly exciting candidate almost certain to take back a Republican-held Senate seat.
On this list, there are only two candidates who have a high probability of seizing seats currently held by "the right-wing conservatives who dominate our government," but even one of those seats is in a legislative body (California Assembly) under the control of a solid Democratic majority. And even if every candidate on this list wins their race, they will not constitute a a critical mass of Dean support in any state or legislative body where they could band together or on which he could build for the future. All he will have done is help elect a handful of people scattered mostly in part-time legislatures.
Furthermore, highlighting so many candidates with such slight chances of winning is a real risk. If these candidates achieve the improbable and win in 65%+ Republican districts, Democracy for America looks like a powerhouse. If they lose, Democracy for America might be viewed as a group unable to effectively target its resources to help viable candidates win tough races, and the value of the group's endorsement and the credibility of its calls for reform could vanish.
Howard Dean has hundreds of thousands of supporters who revere him, and are likely to act on any recommendation he makes. With all the potential inherent in Democracy for America, you would hope they would direct that energy with a little more strategic caluculation and shrewdness.