A little background: As I said, Frank Luntz is a GOP pollster and the first one to predict the GOP take-over in 1994. He also had fairly accurate predictions in 2002, if I recall.
Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher is one of the law firms that represented George W. Bush in Bush v. Gore. It has sent numerous partners to the Bush administration, including Solicitor General Ted Olsen and Customs Commissioner Bob Bonner, among others. Among the partners at Gibson are Eugene Scalia (who had a stint in the Bush Labor Department before returning to Gibson) and Miguel Estrada, nominee to the DC Circuit Court of Appeals before he withdrew his name.
Gibson is also my employer, since 2001. Read on.
Frank was at Gibson to tell us attorneys that language matters and perception matters. This is supposed to help us in our presentations to judges and juries, but the best part of his presentation is when he applied his principles to politics.
Among Frank Luntz's points:
- John Kerry's ads are working. As part of his work for MSNBC, Luntz field testing Kerry's ads among focus groups with dial testers. The dials range from 0-100; the individuals are split into Gore voters versus Bush voters, and set the dial according to how favorably they view the ad. Anything dialed above 50 is good. Luntz showed us 4 Kerry ads. Gore voters dialed between 60-80 consistently. But even better: Bush voters dialed in the upper 50s. Kerry beat the 50 mark even among Bush voters!
- By contrast, Bush's ads are NOT working. This is a quote from Luntz: if you gave money, ask for it back, because they're squandering it. Luntz showed us 3 Bush ads. Gore voters dialed in the 30s; Bush rarely broke the 50 mark even among Bush voters!! The most successful ad was the Kerry quote "I voted for it before I voted against it": Bush voters dialed 50, Gore voters in the mid-30s.
- Luntz said that the people running the campaign will not heed the advice of those saying that their ads suck and they need to change their tack. He said it's based on arrogance and the belief that "they did it once, they can do it again." He said that unless something changes in Bush's advertising, we will likely have 4 years of Kerry.
- Luntz asked for a showing of hands regarding who was voting for whom. As to be expected, there were more Bush supporters than Kerry supporters; but there were only two people (in a room of 50 or so) who were truly "undecided." One of them was one of Luntz's employees!! Luntz said to him: You're fired!
- The three words that will probably turn out to be Bush's downfall: "Bring It On." According to Luntz, all Kerry has to do is repeat that phrase over and over, and Bush's support among women has plummeted. It again shows Bush's arrogance and "Texas swagger," which was seen as inappropriate in the reality of wartime.
- In addition to the Latino/Hispanic vote being the most "in play" of the ethnic minorities, Jewish voters are showing signs of supporting Bush because of his toughness in the Middle East/support for Israel. This will effect Florida and perhaps Ohio the most.
- If Kerry were smart, he should pick either Bob Graham or Bill Nelson of Florida as his VP to take Florida out Bush's column. (Yay! I've been saying that all along.) Gephardt is no help at all - union voters are a shrinking demographic and cannot help win Missouri.