The Field Poll, which has the distinction of
never being wrong, confirms that California is solid (D) territory.
Field Poll (PDF). 5/18-24. MoE 4%. (February 2004).
Kerry 51
Bush 39
Nader 4
Undecided 6
Kerry 55 (53)
Bush 40 (41)
Undecided 5 (6)
Kerry's margin of victory comes from Latinos. While non-Hispanic whites give Kerry a narrow 46-45 lead, Latinos go for Kerry 64-24. "Other" minorities, which must include mostly Asian and African American, go for Kerry 57-23.
And yes, people are more motivated to vote against Bush than for Kerry:
Bush Voters
For Candidate: 71
Against Opponent: 25
Kerry Voters
For Candidate: 33
Against Opponent: 65
Whatever the motivation, it's clear that California is out of the running. California was never in the running. If Arnold and Bush want to waste their time in my neck of the woods, they are welcome to. But the real battles this election season will be fought elsewhere.