Several people have made comments about Iraq turning into another Vietnam.
That may yet happen but I think a more apt analogy is that Iraq will turn into another
Afghanistan circa 1986 (which, by the way, is much, much worse).
Iraq (2003-) is to the US as Afghanistan (1979-1989) was to the USSR.
Briefly...
The USSR invaded Afghanistan in December 1979 and fought an insurgent campaign for 10 years until,
bloodied and bankrupt, they withdrew in February 1989.
The mujahadeen (the "holy warriors" of the guerilla campaign) were sponsored in part with
more than $20 billion by the CIA. The CIA sponsorship and funding, as you may know,
contributed to the rise of the Taliban, bin Laden and Al Queda.
The war completely wrecked Afghanistan.
For the people of Afghanistan, the war was brutal:
1.5 million dead, 6 million refugees, complete destruction of the infrastructure...
towns, roads, bridges and the economy. The war also helped contribute to the fall of the Soviet Union
and contributed to the rise of global, Islamic terrorism.
Let's compare the two conflicts:
USSR in Afghanistan (10 years) |
US in Iraq (one year) |
Reasons for War |
Practical implementation of the new Brezhnev doctrine |
Practical implementation of the new Bush doctrine (see 2002 Nat'l Security Strategy Paper) |
Coming to the rescue of an impoverished ally (human rights, liberation, etc) |
Coming to the rescue of an oppressed population (human rights, liberation, etc) |
Pre-emptive war against Islamist terrorists |
Pre-emptive war against Islamist terrorists |
- maintain order amongst southern SSR satellite states (Tajikistan, Uzebekistan, etc.). Kabul gov't had been overthrown by communist party and tribal insurgency started to resist the communists.
- Buffer against the new Iranian Islamic state
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Costs of War |
$120 billion/10 years (2003 dollars) |
$120 billion/1 year (and counting) |
~22,000 Soviets dead 75,000 wounded |
800+ Americans dead ~4,000 wounded |
175,000 troops deployed (20% of the total Soviet front-line troops) |
135,000 troops deployed (I've read/heard is up to 60% of our active duty frontline strength but was unable to confirm with a linkable source) |
Results of War |
Rise of Bin Laden as a leader in Islamic world-wide terrorism |
Is Zaraqawi the next Bin Laden? |
Soviet Union bankrupt |
United States running huge deficits ($500 billion/year) |
Decrease of Soviet geopolitical influence |
Decrease of US geopolitical influence (got allies?) |
Destruction of the Soviet State (Berlin wall fell just 9 months later signaling the beginning of the end of the empire) |
we'll see... not looking good so far (hello Chalabi) |
Random Notes |
- The United States has spent as much in one year as the Soviets spent in 10.
- US has lost half as many soldiers (on a per year basis).
- US attacks are giving street cred to Zaraqawi amongst the Islamic jihadis and serving as recruiting aids to Al Queda and associated groups.
- Afghanistan had a population at the time of approximately 15 million. Iraqi population 25 million.
- Afghanistan has about 50% larger land mass than Iraq.
- The higher population and lower land area means the population of Iraq is more concentrated; that makes urban warfare more likely and more difficult.
- Afghanistan was a neighbor to the USSR which made it easier to supply. The US has to fly supplies
and reinforcements 10,000 miles.
- Afghanistan only shared a border with two other countries (Iraq shares borders with 6) which makes securing Iraqi borders much more difficult.
- The Iraqi insurgents don't have a superpower supplying them with $2 billion/year of aid although they apparently have access to Saddam's cash stashes and Bin Laden's bucks - not to mention possible Saudi and Iranian and Syrian aid.
- No comparison between the power and killing effectiveness of the US military today vs. USSR military in 1980. The US is much deadlier however...
- USSR did not wince at inflicting civilian casualties. USSR killed almost 15% of the Afghan male population and destroyed entire villages (similar to US tactics in Vietnam).
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