New York Times had a very interesting article regarding historical precedents on the reelections of Pres. Jimmy Carter and Harry Truman but I do not think you can apply that to Bush because he's immune to any precedents. These rules on precedents does not apply to him. Consider these: (1) 2002 mid term election, all contemporary precedents suggest that party in power always lose some seats in congress, and on the other hand the opposition always pick up seats in congress but what happen? The Democrats instead of gaining seats actually lost seats in the House and in the Senate. (2) All president that won the electoral college but lost in the popular vote were always defeated by the same opponent in their re-election but Al Gore beg off in this election that is why this historical precedent will not happen to Bush.
What I am saying is that we must not rely on previous precedents as if they are prophesy, but work hard for the election of John Kerry and John Edwards.
We are up against a person who is possess with an unnatural luck that is why we must unite all our power to defeat his menacing forces.