I averaged all the polls since the end of the REPUBLICAN NATIONAL CONVENTION, Bush probably has around a 3 point lead right now. The polls ending on September 9th are thrown off by the TIME POLL, which IS an outlier, without it Bush is +3 on the polls ending on that day too....
AVERAGE OF POLLS ENDING SEPTEMBER 10th
NEWSWEEK(1003 RV) 9/9-10 BUSH 50% KERRY 45%
RASMUSSEN(3000 LV) 9/8-10 BUSH 47% KERRY 46%
AVERAGE: BUSH 49 KERRY 46
BUSH +3
AVERAGE OF POLLS ENDING SEPTEMBER 9th
TIME(857 LV) 9/8-9 BUSH 52% KERRY 41%
ZOGBY(1018 LV) 9/8-9 BUSH 47% KERRY 45%
RASMUSSEN(3000 LV) 9/7-9 BUSH 48% KERRY 46%
AP/IPSOS(889 LV) 9/7-9 BUSH 51% KERRY 46%
DEM. CORPS(1004 LV) 9/6-9 BUSH 50% KERRY 47%
AVERAGE: BUSH 50% KERRY 45%
BUSH +5
AVERAGE OF POLLS ENDING SEPTEMBER 8th
RASMUSSEN(3000 LV) 9/6-8 BUSH 47% KERRY 47%
FOXNEWS(1000 LV) 9/7-8 BUSH 47% KERRY 45%
ABCNEWS(LV) 9/6-8 BUSH 52% KERRY 43%
CBSNEWS(909 RV): 9/6-8 BUSH 49% KERRY 42%
ECONOMIST/YOUGOV(2306 RV) 9/6-8 BUSH 46% KERRY 45%
AVERAGE: BUSH 48% KERRY 44%
BUSH +4
AVERAGE OF POLLS FROM SEPTEMBER 1st-5th
RASMUSSEN(3000 LV) 9/3-5 BUSH 48% KERRY 46%
NEWSWEEK(1008 RV) 9/2-3 BUSH 54% KERRY 43%
ICR(720 LV) 9/1-5 BUSH 48% KERRY 47%
CNN/USATODAY/GALLUP(778 LV) 9/3-5 BUSH 52% KERRY 45%
AVERAGE: BUSH 51% KERRY 45%
BUSH +6