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Polls for congressional races are few and far between. Independent polls are even rarer. And independent polls for second- or third-tier races are nearly non-existent.

But we lucked out in Ben Konop's race in Ohio 4, where a local newspaper polled a bunch of local issues.

Lima News. 9/15. MoE 5%. (No trend lines.)

Oxley (R) 45.3
Konop (D) 39.4
And want more good news from the poll? Check this out:
Bush 48.6
Kerry 38.1
Sounds like weak numbers, until you learn that Bush won the district with 67 percent in 2000, and Dole with 55 percent in 1996.
[Former Allen County Democratic Party chairman] Angel wondered if Kerry wasn't riding the coat tails of Democratic congressional candidate Ben Konop.

"Kerry is well above the Mondale line," Angel said. "Mondale received 27 percent in Allen County. Konop is doing well, and that's not surprising, with the campaigning he's doing. I think Konop may be carrying Kerry a bit."
   
Brendon Cull, Ohio Democratic Campaign spokesman, said Allen County's job losses account for the race narrowing.

If Bush is having trouble in this Republican district, he's in trouble in Ohio (but we already knew that). The fact that the chronically underfunded Konop is making progress against the entrenched Oxley is phenomenally good news. Konop is proving himself a solid candidate.

Update: The poll appears to be for Allen County only, not the district at large. It's the second largest couny in the district, and one of the state's Republican strongholds.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 11:57 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Anyone from Ohio... (none)
    want to shed some additional light? I gather from the 2000 numbers that Allen County is conservative, but how does it compare with other counties in OH? Is Allen the most conservative, among the most conservative, relatively conservative, or what?

    "You can't talk to the ignorant about lies, since they have no criteria." --Ezra Pound

    by machopicasso on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 11:59:00 AM PDT

    •  Strongly leans Republican (none)
      Lima is an urban area, but it's biggest employer is a tank plant. The rest of the county is rural/exurban.
      •  The lean isn't that strong... (none)
        I work for General Dynamics, so I'm out at the tank plant relatively often.  The union office at the plant is very strongly anti-Bush:  I saw my first "Give Crawford villiage its idiot back" posted on the wall of the office.
    •  Conservative for Sure (none)
      Lima is conservative for sure, but I don't know if its the most conservative.  

      Nonetheless, I was amazed to find when I was up that way recently that there was a local, liberal talk radio show, so maybe folks are coming around over there.

    •  my mom (none)
      ...grew up near there and that whole area is conservative. Generally Christian, generallly middle class.
    •  Anyone wanting Ohio 2000 results (none)
      http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos//results/

      A quick Excel analysis showed that Allen Co. was the 11th most strong county in Ohio (out of 88) for Bush.  

      The other top ten in descending order of Bush support ranging from 74% to 65%:
      Putnam
      Holmes
      Warren
      Auglaize
      Hancock
      Mercer
      Union
      Clermont
      Delaware
      Van Wert

      Even in the most Republican voting co. in the state Gore got 23% of the vote.  Of course Bush got 33% of the vote in the most Democratic voting co. (Cuyahoga).  

      Be a patriot, move to a swing state.

      by Sedge on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 02:34:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I worked for Mike Oxley in 1975 (none)
      In his father's law firm, as a receptionist. And I've indulged in illegal substances with his brother, too. Mike's always been an idiot. I'd love to see him defeated. Findlay, his hometown, used to be very much a conservative town. But I moved away in 1977 and have only been back a couple of times since then.

      No, no, no, you can't drag me back east of the Mississippi. I won't go, I tell you. I won't!

  •  Looks pretty good (none)
    but is it enough for me to actively avoid any other polling info today?  
    Is it my fix for the day?????
    Stop me before I go to Rasmussen and electoral-vote.com
    AGAIN!
  •  Chronically underfunded? (none)
    Doesn't have to be that way.
    •  I've given (none)
      I went to his fundraiser in DC.  He's a really great guy.  Smart, young and ready to run.  He was actively recruited to run by Marcy Kaptur who I'd like to see run for Governor and then Senate.

      Ben even did a recent tour of the district by bowling at one alley after another.  

      I'd love to bring a contingent up to do canvassing for him in October.  If you live in the DC area or on the way to the district, drop me a line and we can arrange to pick you up for the weekend trip.  

  •  Yes, he's an excellent candidate (none)
    I was very disappointed that Ben Konop wasn't selected as one of the dKos dozen. He's young, energetic and smart. I hope that he has a bright future in our Party.

    One note, the Lima paper polled just one county from the district which contains all or parts of 10 or 11.

    •  Yes (none)
      I was going to ask: is that poll for the district as a whole, or for Allen county as a whole? It sounds like the latter.

      "We must uphold a familiar commerce together in all meekness, gentleness, patience and liberality."

      by Marshall on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 12:04:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  You sure? (none)
      From the article:
      In the 4th Congressional District, poll results show Democratic challenger Konop within striking distance of U.S. Rep. Mike Oxley, R-Findlay, a 23-year incumbent.
      The implication being the poll covered the whole district. Of course, it could just be sloppy writing.
      •  It also says... (none)
        ... that voters in Allen county gave the numbers cited in your post. It's ambiguous, but I'm pretty sure that the poll only covers Allen county. In other parts of the article, it clearly talks about what Allen county voters want.

        "We must uphold a familiar commerce together in all meekness, gentleness, patience and liberality."

        by Marshall on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 12:17:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Here's the whole quote... (none)
        "In the 4th Congressional District, poll results show Democratic challenger Konop within striking distance of U.S. Rep. Mike Oxley, R-Findlay, a 23-year incumbent.
           In Allen County, 45.3 percent of those polled said they supported Oxley, while 39.4 percent said they supported Konop. About 15 percent remained undecided.
           Allen County is only one portion of a large, meandering 4th District that sprawls from Findlay to Urbana and from Wapakoneta to Mansfield."

        "We must uphold a familiar commerce together in all meekness, gentleness, patience and liberality."

        by Marshall on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 12:19:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Love Konop. (none)
      Even though his race looked hopeless from the beginning, I gave money because he was an attractive energetic candidate.  Then I kept giving money--he did the walking tour and now he's just done a tour of bowling alleys in the district. He was trying to get Oxley to debate him, and got the newspapers, I think, to urge the debate, but I don't know if anything's come of that.  
  •  OT (none)
    Kos, you're in Time. There's a chart comparing the Democrats and the Republicans and for blogs, the Dems read Daily Kos while the Repubs read Drudge Report.

    just too funny... I won't ever be OT again, sorry.

  •  The last Democrat to carry Allen county was.. (none)
    FDR (1936)

    and FDR was the last to win a majority (in 1932)

    The 1936 results:

    FDR - 16,500 (49%)
    Landon - 15,079 (45%)
    Lemke - 2,002 (6%)

    "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

    by RBH on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 12:08:40 PM PDT

    •  That 6% for Lemke is a Little Scary (none)
      He was the presidential candidate of Father Coughlin's National Union of Social Justice
      (wonder if the GOPers in Allen County in 1940 went around saying "I hope all you Lemke-ites understand that you were responsible for us losing this county last time around.  I don't want to hear any nonsense about Roosevelt and Willkie being exactly the same....")

      In a "safe" state? Consider a vote for David Cobb, the Green Party's candidate for President.

      by GreenSooner on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 12:30:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  LOL! (none)
      Sh*t,  Alf Landon took 45% in this county?

      Landon only won two states.

  •  Ohio Counties (none)
    To compare Allen County with other Ohio counties and Ohio as a whole you can check the Ohio 2000 presidential election results.

    The Democratic part of Ohio is generally in the northeast, plus Toledo, plus Columbus.

  •  What are the chances that (none)
    Kerry wins Ohio and Loses Penn, and what would that do to the whole Electoral College calculus?

    I know that if Kerry nets FL and OH, Losing PA won't matter, but is there a way for him to win, winning OH, but Losing PA and FL?

    "Freedom is Everyday Low Prices" Graffiti 2003, Anonymous

    My newsgroup.

    by dbratl on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 12:27:47 PM PDT

    •  FL, OH, PA (none)
      EVs:

      FL: 27
      PA: 21
      OH: 20

      If Kerry wins 3 of 3, it will be impossible for him to lose.
      If Kerry wins 2 of 3, it will be almost impossible for him to lose.
      If Kerry wins 1 of 3, it's a tossup (think Gore)
      If Kerry wins 0 of 3, it will be very difficult for him to win.

      "George Bush has no strategy for Iraq.  I do." - John Kerry, 9/20/04

      by thirdparty on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 12:34:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Again Kerry ain't gonna lose Pennsylvania (4.00)
      W is going to drown in a sea of Philly area votes.  We may well have a 500,000 margin comin from the Philly metro area, at least 400,000. (Gore won Philly by 350,000 and the suburbs by 64,000, and turnout should be even higher this year.)  W would then have to carry outstate PA by at least 400,000, which is more than double his 2000 margin, which is about 12% of the total outstate vote.  Well, Reagan couldn't even do that, he won outstate Pennsylvania by about 11.5% in 1984(although Reagan carried Philly metro by 20,000 votes as well).  So unless W can reduce the margin in the Philly metro, we will drown W in Philly.

      I'd guess that in reality W will have to win nationally by at least 5 points in order to carry Pennsylvania.  And in that case W won't need Pennsylvania.

      •  Polls have become increasingly (none)
        unreliable in picking up inner city votes.  So polls that show PA in play, or even leaning Bush need to be taken with a grain of salt.

        Still, wasn't 2000 a record year for turnout in Phil?  Is it realistic to predict 50-150,000 more votes out of there?  

        Just asking?

        "Freedom is Everyday Low Prices" Graffiti 2003, Anonymous

        My newsgroup.

        by dbratl on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 12:46:53 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not unrealistic at all (none)
          Despite the "record" turnout in 2000, turnout was still around 50%.  I've heard reports of much greater registration numbers, and more importantly, there was decent turnout for off year elections in 2002 and 2003, when turnout tends to really drop in Philly.  In the judicial elections in 2003, it was unexpected massive Philly turnout(with the mayoral race there too) that gave the Dems a sweep in the judicial races.  Granted Philly candidates for office(Rendell in 2002 and Street in 2003) were on the ballot.  So many of these people in Philly are voting consistently to begin with.   But I suspect whatever records on turnout are going to be beaten in 2004. And don't forget the suburbs that are moving even more so toward the Dems.  I'd be surprised if the Dems can't get at least a 75,000 margin out of there this year, and it is likely to be higher.  Nader also got 30,000 votes in the Philly metro area.

          Also even assuming the 2000 turnout, W will need to win outstate PA by double what he did in 2000.  That's going to be tough.  I think 325,000-350,000 is the magic number, W needs to hold the Philly metro margin in that area and improve his own margin to that level in outstate in order to get Pennsylvania.      

          •  What's going to happen to Specter vs Hoeffel race (none)
            IhateBush, assuming large Philadelphia area turnout, how will the Senate race play out?
            What I heard was, Hoeffel is not doing too well in the polls, and Pennsylvania AFL-CIO just endorsed Specter . . .

             

            •  Really tough to say (none)
              It's going to be far closer than the polls indicate, but I'm concerned that there could be a lot of ticket splitting in the Philly suburbs and even in Philly for Specter.  Specter has a reputation(undeserved) as a moderate, and that will play well in the Philly suburbs.  A massive turnout in Philly certainly helps Hoeffel.(which is why the race will becloser than the polls show.)  A massive turnout in the suburbs helps Kerry, but might also help Specter.  

              Hoeffel needs to get better known in the state.  His base is in the Philly area, but that's Specter's home area as well.  A wild card is Jim Clymer, who is running on the Constitution Party banner, who will eat up right-wing votes.  Right-wing 3rd parties have gotten as much as 14% here a couple times in the 1990s. But that would still require Hoeffel to probably get over 45%.  He might do it, but name recognition and money is still a problem.  Gosh this would be much easier if Toomey had won the primary. (I actually volunteered for Toomey in the Rethug primary to try to make this happen.)  

              I think Specter will probably win narrowly unless there is a late surge that has undecideds not only rejecting W but also the entire Rethug cabal.  Which is very possible this year.  

              •  It would have been easy if Toomey won (none)
                IhateBush, I agree with you that if Pat Toomey won the primary (Who lost by only 15,000 out of 1 million votes if I am correct.), Hoeffel would have won easily, but that being said, I agree with you that Specter is "seen" as a moderate, so there might make many voters to split their votes.
                If Hoeffel doesn't win this time, I hope he will try again in 2006 to challenge Rick Santorum who seems too conservative for Pennsylvania (He seems vulnerable since he made the sodomy bigamy polygamy incest adultery comment last year.).
      •  But don't forget... (none)
        ...the Republicans have a secret weapon: The Amish!

        You know, those social conservatives who will be so impressed by Scrappy Doo's aggressive hawkish foreign policy that they will turn out like never before to vote for him.  Probably will be the first to senc their children to Iraq to fight terror. The Lancaster Papyrus has a phone interview with farmer Jacob Yoder, stating that their communities want "a President who kicks ass!"

        Matt Drudge has been blogging the Amish heavily too, so you know there's something to this!

        AP: Bush Intelligence Links Kevin Bacon to Al Qaida!

        by AdmiralNaismith on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 01:42:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Impossible to poll Amish (none)
          I think I heard a month ago about Republicans trying to get Amish to vote for Bush.
          Perhaps impossible to poll them (Like young cell-phone only users.).
          Do rural Pennsylvania polling stations use some kind of technology to vote?
          If a touch-screen voting machine is used, they may not want to vote at all.
  •  Hamilton County registrations? (none)
    This is encouraging news, and I am heartened by the record-breaking voter registration drives here in Lorain County and high registration in Cuyahoga County.  Can anyone report on how registration in Hamilton County is faring in comparison to past presidential election years?  That's Bush's core.
    •  Related post two entries down (none)
      I recall reading that Hamilton County registration was up. For a hopeful indicator from the heart of Republican Ohio, see "It Can Be Done," below. (If you and I hadn't been typing simultaneously, I'd have linked to your comment.)
    •  Hamilton County Registration (none)
      I've been to a lot of political events (had to leave Edwards' talk today before he got there - can we stop running on Democratic Standard Time, people?), and everyone is talking about 40,000 - 50,000 new registrations in Hamilton County. Apparently, most of those are from progressive groups (ACT, etc.), so I remain hopeful that the Dems will make inroads in Hamilton County. Of course, all the GOP scandals help, plus the fact (WARNING: SHAMELESS PLUG) that we have good candidates such as Steve Brinker for the downticket races.

      WF

      Walk In Brain - the finest blogging in my apartment building.

      by Wes F on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 06:47:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Angel's a dope (none)
    What's up with that Angel dude? Look, pal, when a former Democratic candidate did really poorly in your area, DON'T BRING UP HIS NAME IN CONNECTION WITH THE CURRENT CANDIDATE!

    Also, while it's nice to prop up your local guy, don't say he's "carrying" the national guy. Say something like, "Well, I really think they're both doing well because there's a certain energy being created with the combination of a really strong presidential candidate and a bright, energetic guy running a good campaign for Congress. The Democrats are looking in better shape in the district than at any time since FDR."

    You see, you get to praise everyone and you get to associate them with a national hero.

    Sheesh.

  •  It can be done (4.00)
    My parents are rock-ribbed Republicans from Ohio's solidly Republican 2nd District. This weekend, I asked them to consider not voting for George Bush. Generally, we don't talk about politics. I love my parents, but they voted for Goldwater, for heaven's sake.

    To my astonishment, my mother said, "Your father is already a Kerry man." My father--a Marine who was wounded on Okinawa, then went on with his life (hello, Tom Borkaw)--believes that Bush either didn't know or didn't care about the gravity of taking us to war.

    I realize this is a single, anecdotal example, but it does lead me to believe that Ohio is far fom hopeless.

    •  Borkaw (none)
      I like that....

      "We must uphold a familiar commerce together in all meekness, gentleness, patience and liberality."

      by Marshall on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 12:43:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  A 4 for you for bothering to ask! (none)
      I have asked my dental hygienist, who isn't "a political person usually" to vote for Kerry. I have discussed politics with a few college students I know. I just talked to a good friend who shamefacedly admitted he did not vote in 2000, but will vote for Kerry this year come hell or high water.

      I know, there are some people you can't ask. Like your boss. But you won't believe how great it feels when someone says, "I don't know who I'm voting for" and you convince them that Kerry is worth the drive to the booth. I think some people just want to know that there is someone they know who's ALSO voting for Kerry, because the Bush people are so loud and aggressive.

      Just ask, "Have you decided whom you're voting for this year?" See where it leads.

      There were lies, damn lies and statistics. Now the Republicans have added a category: speeches.

      by gogaddy on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 12:47:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Or just wear a button... (4.00)
        It's amazing the number of unsolicited conversations I've had with folks just because I'm wearing a Kerry/Edwards button.  One of the neighborhood parents that I'd pegged as a solid Republican starting talking to me about how he couldn't vote for Bush.

        Oh, and if you really want to make friends, give them the button off your shirt.  I've gone through dozens already (I usually keep a few spares in my pocket and glove compartment.)

  •  Cleveland PD had statewide numbers on Sunday (none)
    They compared their results to poll from late May and also reported some favorable/unfavorables.  The results were broken down by region.


    When compared, the two Plain Dealer polls show that Bush has made slightly more headway in pumping up his base and reaching into Kerry's strongholds than Kerry has in building on his base and swinging voters to his side.
    Voters in the socially conservative southwest, which includes the Republican stronghold of Cincinnati, favor Bush by the widest margin over Kerry - 60 percent to 33 percent - or 7 points better than in the May poll.
    Voters in Northeast Ohio, which includes the Democratic stronghold of Cuyahoga County, make it the only region to favor Kerry, 50 percent to 41 percent. The 9-point spread is the same as in the May poll.
    Bush's support grew significantly in the southeast, a socially conservative but economically fickle region. Bush leads Kerry there, 57 percent to 36 percent. The May poll showed Bush with a more modest lead, 51 percent to 44 percent.
    Kerry gained slightly in the northwest, though Bush still leads this traditional swing area, 48 percent to 43 percent.

    The GOTV in Cleveland and Columbus has to be hugely effective to carry the state. I did canvassing on Saturday with ACT, targeted to women voters in a precinct that's pretty well integrated between repub/dems and black/white. I did not encounter a single Bush supporter among those women.

    The thing that's been worrying me is what I've been hearing about Cincinnati/Hamilton County. Apparently, nearly 100,000 voter registrations have been purged since the 2000 election. It's legal, but the timing stinks to high heaven.

    The SE part of the state is also critical, being an area that trends towards social conservatism, but one that's been hammered by the loss of heavy manufacturing jobs. Edwards has been spending a lot of time along the Ohio River Valley, in both WV and OH, so hopefully the "son of a mill worker" thing will have some resonance. What may swing this voting bloc is the war. With no jobs, these people's kids are serving in the military in high numbers. Last week, Edwards was down there ready to talk about the economy, when some soldier's mom got up wanting to know why her child still wasn't riding in an armored vehicle.

    No matter what these polls are saying, this state is absolutely volatile.

  •  JK is in my building RIGHT NOW (none)
    Secret service swarming all over the lobby... the big black SUV's parked out front... I'm tempted to hang about and try to meet him, but I'm sure he'd be surrounded by a hundred people clamoring to shake his hand.

    Oh well. Someday, I'll have dinner at the White House.


    "It is a common delusion that you make things better by talking about them." - Dame Rose Macaulay

    by Zackpunk on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 12:53:21 PM PDT

    •  Maybe give it a shot (none)
      When JK came to Charlotte last month and gave a speech in a local venue, I didn't go try to meet him because I thought he would be whisked away right away. Instead, he stayed and chatted with people for at least 30 minutes, while I sat up in a balcony and missed my chance...

      There were lies, damn lies and statistics. Now the Republicans have added a category: speeches.

      by gogaddy on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 12:55:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  aoeu (none)
      Wear a sign "I'm Zackpunk, you stole my line!"

      My turtles laughter
      was loud when the Yankees lost
      22 to zilch

      by TealVeal on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 01:42:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Baseball Haiku (none)
        (inspired by your sig file)

        Boos fall like snowflakes
        The closer has blown the save
        Sox 3, Yankees 2


        "It is a common delusion that you make things better by talking about them." - Dame Rose Macaulay

        by Zackpunk on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 02:03:44 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I live in Ohio (none)
    And I see this is a demographic shift... unfortunately there are other areas of Ohio going in exactly the opposite direction
  •  Ohio Poll (none)
    The latest Bush-Kerry Ohio Poll from U of Cincy will be released tomorrow at 10AM.

    I'm particularly interested in the numbers coming out of NW Ohio (Toledo and conservative rural areas) which showed Bush +20 points in the August poll contrary to that region's previous political leanings. I'll post a summary and comparison to previous 2004 polls in the morning.

    A word is not a crystal, transparent and unchanged, it is the skin of a living thought... -- Oliver Wendell Holmes

    by em dash on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 01:30:12 PM PDT

    •  Ohio Poll (none)
      always leans GOP. I don't put much faith in it.
      •  true enough (none)
        but what's that old adage: hold your friends close and your enemies closer?

        Ohio voters are so schizophrenic that I think there's value in balancing the truth and biases inherent in all the polls, whether conducted by UCincy, the PD, Dispatch, Enquirer, or Blade in order to get at something resembling voter ID. I fear there's a bit of poll cherry-picking that goes on here that is persuading typically reasonable people to mischaracterize the real ground game in places that you and I know all too well cannot be neglected: Bowling Green, McConnelsville, Warren, Marietta, and Ashtabula among many others.

        We can't give up an inch to those GOP bloodsuckers in the Statehouse. We should fight in every county as far as I'm concerned. Speaking of which, what's going on with Terry Anderson's Senate campaign in Athens? Haven't heard much.

        A word is not a crystal, transparent and unchanged, it is the skin of a living thought... -- Oliver Wendell Holmes

        by em dash on Mon Sep 20, 2004 at 09:28:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  you scared me there (none)
    I am from Oxley's district. If those were the numbers from his whole district I'd be dancing right now.
  •  This is corroborated by the Dispatch Poll (none)
    The Columbus Dispatch recently did a series of stories breaking Ohio down into sections and comparing 2000 results to this year's poll results.

    In staunchly conservative "Western Ohio", of which Allen County comprises the northern border, the 2000 vote was 55%-42% for Bush.  The Dispatch's poll (which I believe was just prior to the R convention) showed 48-45 for Bush.  A 10-point swing since 2000.  The area is pretty sparsely populated to begin with (12.4% of OH pop.) and is actually losing population.

    To give a run down of the other findings of the Dispatch poll:

    Northeast Ohio (Cleveland, Akron, Canton, Youngstown): most reliably Dem part of state and most populous (39% of OH pop).  In 2000, 53-43 Gore; now, 52-39 Kerry.  Kerry really need to increase his margins in this Dem part of the state to win, especially with the large job losses here.

    Southwest Ohio (Cincinnati and suburbs, exurbs):  Most republican part of the state.  In 2000, 59-38 Bush; now, 58-34 Bush.  Clearly Kerry is getting trounced here again.  He needs to hold down Bush's margins in this growing region to win statewide.

    Southeast Ohio (various small appalachian towns, Ohio Universtiy):  Extremely swing-y district.  Went from giving Clinton 15 point margin in 1996 to 3 point margin for Bush in 2000.  Area is very poor and very sparsely populated.  In 2000, 49-46 Bush; now, 52-38 Bush.  Probably swinging away because of social issues: guns, abortion, gay rights.  Kerry needs to emphasize economic message here using Edwards.

    Northwest Ohio (Toledo, rural):  Lean republican area.  In 2000, 50-46 Bush; now, 49-43 Bush.  Again not much has changed here.  Nearly 8% (!) jobless rate, but Kerry has not yet turned this to his advantage.

    Central Ohio (Columbus, outlying counties):  Republicans are slowly losing their grip on this fastest-growing area of the state, mostly do to a growing Columbus.  In 2000, 54-43 Bush; now, 50-44 Bush.  So we're cutting down Bush's margins here but Kerry probably needs to be within one or two points here if he wants to win the state.  I will be working here to turn out D voters and I hope it will be enough to push us over, but Kerry has to seal the deal in the debates.

  •  What do you think Konop's numbers (none)
    in the whole district would be? Better than this? Worse? If this is the most GOP part of the district, or close, wouldn't he be doing better in other parts?

    He's so gorgeous...I guess that doesn't mean much to fundies though.

  •  don't forget about Montco (none)
    The Dayton-Springfield area was left out. It's a swing area because of Dems base in Dayton with GM assembly and Chassis plants, and other factories, and the GOP with Wright Patterson AFB. Right now metro Dayton is swinging towards Kerry. Dayton unemployment is at 10.6%. Springfield (where Kerry had his midnight rally after Bush's convention speech) has a 8.3% rate. Kerry will do much better than Gore in Montgomery and Clark counties, and much better in the outer GOP counties. Unfortunately Jane Mitakides in Ohio 3 will have a tough race. But she will make Mike Turner fight for his political life.
  •  re: Allen (none)
    Btw, the GOP will pay the price for layoffs at the correctional facility in Lima. That's why Konop is within 6 pts of Oxley.
    •  And also for the Medicare stuff (none)
      I grew up in adjacent Indiana.  This part of Ohio and its people are representative of those being screwed most by the Bush policies.  They are net producers of wealth that is then transferred out of state to the South and Southwest.  It is an older population, and they are just now looking at premium increases that will not be matched by any increase in income.  The children all leave.  I don't think any conventional effort to attract industry will work - a soybean factory, which would be a natural there, just started building in my area on the East Coast in spite of enormous taxes and community opposition.  I think they would be open to something unconventional.  I actually think this is the kind of place Teresa Heinz Kerry could do well in - it's not that dissimilar from rural Western PA.  

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