Below the fold is a detailed look at our prospects in CO, based on demographics. I was prompted to make this analysis by the fact that the last five polls were a tie (even in the context of a national "Bush Bubble"):
B K
Rasmussen 9/15/04 46 46
P.O.S. (R) 9/12-9/13 45 44
ARG 9/10-9/13 46 45
Zogby Int. 9/1-9/7 46 46
SUSA 8/14-8/16 47 47
Colorado has 9 EV, hence
Gore 2000 + Colorado + New Hampshire WINS
(260 + 9 + 4 = 273).
Feel free to skip to the
CONCLUSION at the bottom if you're speed-reading.
First, note that Nader is on the ballot in Colorado:
DENVER (Reuters) - A judge ruled on Friday that independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader has the right to be on the ballot in Colorado in November, a move that could help President Bush in a state considered too close to call.
In the Rasmussen, POS and ARG polls (listed above), Nader polled 3%. (The other two polls didn't include Nader.)
Second, note that Kerry was born in a military hospital in Colorado.
Third, Colorado has lost 76,000 jobs since Bush took office, and the unemployment rate has increased from 2.6 percent to 5.1 percent. The Republican-run government has slashed state budgets, including money for social services. The state's problems include the bursting of the high-tech bubble, a tourism drop and drought. (Source: AP/yahoo, Sep 14.)
COLORADO 1992, 1996, 2000 RESULTS
From uselectionatlas.org
1992:
Votes %
Clinton 629,681 40.13
Bush 562,850 35.87
Perot 366,010 23.32
Libertarian 8,669 .55
Other 1,970 .13
Total 1,569,180
1996:
Votes %
Clinton 671,152 44.43
Dole 691,848 45.80
Perot 99,629 6.59
Nader 25,070 1.66
Libertarian 12,392 .82
Other 10,613 .70
Total 1,510,704
2000:
Votes %
Gore 738,277 42.39
Bush 883,745 50.75
Nader 91,434 5.25
Libertarian 12,799 .73
Buchanan 10,465 .60
Other 4,695 .27
Total 1,741,365
For the following, my source for 1996 is CNN exit poll data and for 2000 is MSNBC exit poll data.
ETHNICITY
1996:
Cli Dol Per
86 White 40 50 7
3 Black 0 0 0
9 Hispanic/Latino 85 12 3
1 Asian 0 0 0
1 Other 0 0 0
2000:
Gor Bsh Bch Ndr
81 White 37 56 1 5
2 Black 0 0 0 0
14 Hispanic/Latino 68 25 0 6
2 Asian 0 0 0 0
2 Other 0 0 0 0
Here's how to read this table. The left column tells you what proportion of Colorado voters (in 1996 or 2000) were of a given ethnicity. E.g., 9% Hispanic/Latino in 1996, 14% in 2000. The last 4 numbers in the row tell you, for a given race, how that race voted in Colorado. E.g., in 1996, 85% of hispanics went for Clinton (Cli), 12% for Dole (Dol), and 3% for Perot (Per); in
2000, 68% of hispanics went for Gore (Gor), 25% for Bush (Bsh), 0% for Buchanan (Bch), and 6% for Nader (Ndr).
NADER/PEROT
Here's how Perot '96 and Nader 2000 voters say they would have voted, had Perot/Nader not been running:
Dem GOP
Perot'96 4 5
Nader'00: 6 1
These numbers are the (approximate) ratios: Perot'96 voters would have split 5-to-4 in favor of the GOP (had they voted at all), Nader'00 voters 6-to-1 in favor of Dem (had they voted at all).
AGE
1996:
Cli Dol Per
17 18-29 49 39 7
38 30-44 47 44 6
26 45-59 44 46 6
19 60+ 36 55 7
2000:
Gor Bsh Bch Ndr
20 18-29 46 41 0 12
38 30-44 40 56 1 3
29 45-59 44 49 1 5
14 60+ 40 57 0 3
Example of how to read this: 17% of 1996 turnout was 18-29 year olds, and 20% of 2000 turnout was 18-29 year olds. In 2000, 12% of 19-29 year old Coloradans voted for Nader.
CONCLUSION
Don't listen to the media, to the Conventional Wisdom. Colorado a great oppurtunity in 2004. We don't have to wait until 2008.
- In 1996, 9% of voters were hispanic. In 2000, 14%. Naive linear interpolation suggests around 19% will be hispanic in 2004. They vote at least 2/3rd Dem. Add to that, Dem senate candidate Ken Salazar is latino, currently polling slightly ahead of his GOP opponent Coors (the beer guy), and the reverse coattails could lead to an unprecedented latino turnout.
- 12% of young voters voted for Nader in 2000. I highly doubt anywhere near as many will this time. Add to that that ex-Nader voters split 6:1 Dem:GOP in Colorado.
- The last five Colorado polls were absolutely neck and neck.
- Kerry was born in a military hospital in Colorado. That opens the door to great spin.
- Age 60+ voters in Colorado voted +17% for Bush in 2000. Sad though it is to say it, the reality is that this is the age group where most deaths occur. Meanwhile, the 18-29 age group, very pro Kerry/Nader, are all still around to vote again --- plus with their numbers boosted by those who were aged 14-17 in 2000, who by all accounts are nationally 2:1 pro-Kerry. (Note, however, that some 18-21 college students at Boulder etc may leave to return to their home states, so it's not quite as simple as that.)
- I read a piece somewhere (maybe linked from a dkos diary) about how many East and West coasters, tired with their drab corporate existence, move to be "free" in the mountains in Colorado. They want nothing to do with "the system", and live quietly in isolation in their cute mountain villages. They snub "the system" to the extent that they don't vote. This time, however, they realize their isolationism may not be in their best interests, and they're going to turn out like crazy to vote in 2004. (If someone can tell me the link to this article, I'll edit the diary.)
- [Update] Boulderite Blue the Wild Dog says in a comment below that another intangible factor in Kerry's favor is that a large number of military families in the Springs may not go so heavily for Bush this time around. The 4th Infantry Division, garrisoned partly at Fort Carson, has been deployed in Iraq since the start of the war.
Also, Democratic turnout in Boulder and Denver during the caucuses was approximately 5 times normal levels. These are the same folks who'll be spending time on GOTV this fall.
- [Update] The Libertarian Badnarik factor (thanks to ben masel). The Libertarians are running a much more professional campaign than the last couple cycles, and have targetted Colorado for a major effort ahead. They could draw 3% or so, mostly at Bush's expense. The "anti-Nader" effect.
- Colorado has lost 76,000 jobs since Bush took office, and the unemployment rate has increased from 2.6 percent to 5.1 percent. The Republican-run government has slashed state budgets, including money for social services. The state's problems include the bursting of the high-tech bubble, a tourism drop and drought. (Source: AP/yahoo, Sep 14.)
- Gore 2000 states + Colorado + New Hampshire WINS. And with New Hampshire as blue as it is this time round, that basically means (assuming we hold WI/IA/MN/PA --- which I believe we're likely to, once this fake Gallup-driven "Bush bubble" implodes) Colorado essentially clinches the election. We don't need Ohio or Florida.
- The popular mentality is that Colorado is strongly GOP. Afterall, Bush won it in 2000 by 8% (albeit with Nader at 5%). So we may be able to catch the GOP asleep in this one, rather like they did with us in West Virginia and Tennessee in 2000.
All of the dice are rolling our way in Colorado. Treat it like the swing / lean-Kerry state that it is! (Shhhh --- but don't tell the GOP!)