The fantastic
ARG 50-state poll gives us an opportunity to see how Kerry is doing relative to Gore. ARG released a similar poll
September 21, 2000, so we can compare directly between them. At the time of the 2000 ARG poll, Gore was ahead in national polls by 0 to 8 points, depending on the
poll. Kerry is a point behind Bush in the current ARG poll, so we should expect the 2000 polls to be about 5 points better than the current ones. Adjusting for the 5 point bias, we can look at the trend, compare with 2000 election results, and project the winner of each state in 2004 assuming another tied race nationally.
State / 2000-2004 Trend / 2000 Outcome / 2004 Outcome
Illinois: Trend +1 / 2000 Result +12 / Projected: +13
Delaware: Trend -2 / 2000 Result +13 / Projected: +11
Washington: Trend +4 / 2000 Result +6 / Projected: +10
Pennsylvania: Trend +4 / 2000 Result +4 / Projected: +8
New Hampshire: Trend +9 / 2000 Result -2 / Projected: +7
Florida: Trend +4 / 2000 Result -0 / Projected: +4
Ohio: Trend +6 / 2000 Result -4 / Projected: +2
Oregon: Trend +1 / 2000 Result +1 / Projected: +2
Nevada: Trend +5 / 2000 Result -4 / Projected: +1
Wisconsin: Trend +1 / 2000 Result 0 / Projected: +1
Colorado: Trend +7 / 2000 Result -8 / Projected: -1
Maine: Trend -6 / 2000 Result +5 / Projected: -1
Arkansas: Trend +2 / 2000 Result -5 / Projected: -3
Iowa: Trend -4 / 2000 Result +0 / Projected: -4
Missouri: Trend -3 / 2000 Result -3 / Projected: -6
North Carolina: Trend +2 / 2000 Result -13 / Projected: -11
Louisiana: Trend -10 / 2000 Result -8 / Projected: -18
Kentucky: Trend -18 / 2000 Result -15 / Projected: -33
I assume Gore won't actually lose Kentucky by 33, but I think the trend is useful for projecting where Kerry is doing relatively well and relatively poorly. Since Gore got 260 electoral votes (adjusted for reapportionment) in 2000, adding NH, FL, OH, and NV while losing ME and IA would give him 305. Who knows about WV and VA, for which I couldn't find 2000 polling data. Let's hope Maine is a fluke and will come home in November, but right now Colorado, Wisconsin, and Nevada look to be the swingiest of swing states.
(Cross-posted with more details at The Left Coaster)