So I took the advice of a few people and updated a few things: My list of swing states, my methodology, the map & the numbers I used to calculate my list. No major changes, but read on if you want the details. And if you'd like to see the map (pretty colors!), please
click through to SSP.
First, I've updated the list of swing states. I've included Washington, and I've also split Maine into its two Congressional districts. (The overall winner in Maine gets two EVs, and then the winner of each CD gets one EV. It's a small distinction, but the election may very well be super-close once again.) The revised list is below.
Second, I've simplified the methodology - or at least, just removed any caveats. I am now including any state where (Gore + Nader) - (Bush + Buchanan) is plus or minus 10 points.
Third, I've switched to what I feel are a more accurate set of numbers, from Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. (Dave's site is totally awesome, by the way.) Previously, I had been using CNN's numbers, but I don't think they did as thorough a job as Dave did updating the numbers after election night. There were no dramatic changes using the new numbers, but MI looks about a point better for us than previously thought, while TN and VA are both about a point worse.
And lastly, I've produced a new (and I think better) map.
Revised list of swing states (blue went for Gore, red went for Bush):
Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Louisiana
Maine (2nd CD)
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Nevada
New Mexico
New Hampshire
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin