A couple of hours ago,
Reuters trumpeted the following headline: "Loss of Georgia Seat for Democrats Could Cost Senate." The scare lede was even gloomier:
Democrats' hopes of retaining a Senate seat in Georgia are fading fast and such a loss could deal a fatal blow to the party's chances of regaining control of the Senate.
I call Bushit.
Yes, we're probably going to "lose" the Georgia seat. On the other hand, given that the present incumbent of that seat is Zell-Out Miller, we're really only going to be recognizing reality. Zell Miller is not a Democrat and has not been for some time other than in name.
Right now the Senate is split 51 Republicans to 48 Democrats, plus Jim Jeffords, the independent who generally caucuses and votes Democratic. Let's be charitable and give the Republicans a three-seat edge, given that Zell votes with them about 98% of the time.
All we need to do to regain control of the Senate is hold on to all of our seats and win four others back, and we're golden. We're guaranteed one pickup in Illinois, where Republican one-termer Peter Fitzgerald is retiring and where Barack Obama currently holds about a 50-point lead over the Maryland Carpetbagger Who Shall Not Be Named. So we still need three seats. (Assuming that Lincoln Chafee doesn't pull a Jim Jeffords, although he is reportedly thinking about it.)
As Kos pointed out last week, even the Republican polls in Oklahoma show Carson pulling ahead of ultra-wingnut Coburn. Carson was also just endorsed by Okie legend Barry Switzer, which can only hurt Coburn's chances further. If things pan out as they seem likely to do, this seat moves from R to D, meaning we only need to pick up two more and hold on to the rest of ours.
Alaska also looks like a good pickup prospect, given that Tony Knowles has never lagged Lisa Murkowski, and the latest DSCC poll at the end of September put him up over Murkowski by six points. All we need is one more.
Colorado could well give us that one more we need. According to a Rocky Mountain News poll from mid-September, Colorado Attorney General Ken Salazar held an 11-point lead over wingnut brewer Pete Coors to take over the seat of retiring Democrat-turned-Republican Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell.
As far as holding our own is concerned, I'm not terribly concerned. The Republicans are pouring tons of money into South Dakota, hoping to take down Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle. But Daschle has held his own in recent tough elections. His Republican opponent, John Thune, was unsuccessful in his 2002 bid for South Dakota's other Senate seat, and just this week allegations surfaced that his campaign had been up to some dirty tricks. That isn't likely to help, this close to the election.
There has been some concern about Inez Tenenbaum's chances of holding on to her seat in South Carolina, but her opponent's surge in the polls has started to erode lately, particularly since he came out in favor of a 23% sales-tax increase. This one's a toss-up, but Tenenbaum isn't out for the count yet by a long shot.
The Louisiana contest to fill John Breaux's seat is still in flux, thanks to Louisiana's peculiar election system. We may not know the winner of that contest until next year, if no candidate wins a clear majority of at least 50% of the voters this November. That would trigger a runoff election in January.
Mel Martinez has gone ultra-wingnut in his Senate campaign in Florida, and it doesn't seem to be going over well with voters. Patty Murray seems likely to prevail in Washington, as does Barbara Boxer in California.
I'm going to go out on a bit of a limb here and predict that the Democrats will win back control of the Senate this November. Out of the nine seats that could potentially change hands, I think the Dems will take at least four of them, if not more. I don't foresee any Dem losses except Zell Miller's seat in Georgia, and that's been functionally Republican for at least the last three years anyway. If every race breaks our way, we could hold a 10-seat majority, and that's without considering the possibility that Lincoln Chafee may yet do a Jeffords.
Reuters either got this one wrong, or was too lazy to do the legwork to put the race in proper perspective.