Many groups this year have been trying to get America's youngest voters to the polls. Rock the Vote, the League of Pissed Off Voters, and others have been prodding youth to make their voice heard on November 2nd.
An article in the San Francisco Chronicle stated that
According to a Pew Research Center poll, 58 percent of eligible voters under 30 said they have registered to vote -- the highest percentage since 1992. A recent MTV/CIRCLE poll showed that 83 percent of young voters are paying attention to the election, and an unprecedented 80 percent said they definitely planned to vote Nov. 2.
If youth turnout is 80% like the MTV poll suggests, that means 434,000 new young voters in Ohio, 514,000 new young voters in Pennsylvania, and almost 600,000 new young voters in Florida (estimates made from U.S. Census Bureau data).
Update [2004-10-22 13:23:0 by meander]: Additional population and voting rate data added. 45+ data removed.
The table below lists population (thousands) and voter % data for the 18-24 age group For each swing state, I list the total number of people (a), number of U.S. citizens (b), number who were registered to vote (c), number who voted (d), and various voting fractions. The source is Reported Voting and Registration of the Total Voting-Age Population - Table 4b, from the U.S. Census Bureau. See also The Voting and Registration page at the U.S. Census Bureau.
Total Total Reg.to Vote/ Vote/ Vote/ # non-
Citizens Vote Voted total citizen reg. voting
STATE (a) (b) (c) (d) (d/a) (d/b) (d/c) citizens (b-d)
--------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ------
ARIZONA 582 484 167 124 21.3 25.6 74.3 360
ARKANSAS 249 242 123 88 35.4 36.4 71.5 154
COLORADO 432 399 203 121 28.1 30.3 59.6 278
FLORIDA 1410 1176 583 416 29.5 35.4 71.4 760
IOWA 265 243 145 114 43.1 46.9 78.6 129
MICHIGAN 967 930 474 348 36 37.5 73.6 582
MINNESOTA 479 460 255 213 44.5 46.3 83.5 247
MISSOURI 511 502 216 154 30.1 30.7 71.3 348
NEVADA 162 134 50 42 25.8 31.3 84.0 92
NEW MEXICO 170 162 57 39 23 24.1 68.4 123
N CAROLINA 737 653 331 200 27.2 30.6 60.4 453
OHIO 1033 1009 530 382 37 37.9 72.1 627
OREGON 297 246 148 102 34.2 41.1 68.2 144
PENN. 1080 1041 505 330 30.6 31.8 65.5 711
TENNESSEE 606 576 204 139 22.9 24.1 68.1 437
WASHINGTON 565 538 300 215 38.1 40.0 71.7 323
WISCONSIN 465 439 279 222 47.8 50.8 79.9 217
Total U.S. 26712 23915 12122 8628 32.3 36.1 71.2 15287
NOTES: all populations in thousands, all for 18-24 age group, voting ratios in %
The data show a generally abysmal voting rate among citizens for the 18-24 age group in 2000, not even 33%. The turnout rate for 45+, in contrast, is well over 60%. The last column lists the number of citizens who didn't vote. The number of older non-voters is about 2 times higher than the number of 18-24 non-voters (exact ratio varies state by state). However, it is probably easier to increase turnout from 33% to 43% than from 65% to 72%.
Although an 80% voter turnout seems unlikely, but the youth vote is a huge untapped well, and even smaller increases like 10% will be significant. For example, a 10% increase in voter turnout for citizens of age 18-24 in Florida (from 35.4% to 45.4%) would be over 100,000 new voters. Similarly, a 10% increase in Ohio or Pennsylvania among the 18-24 group means 100,000 new voters in each state.