As if there weren't already enough hype, what do I come upon but this
article? Polling in Hawaii has Kerry at 47 and Bush at 41, but this is close enough that the Republicans are spinning this as a battleground state. Nice try. Still, this does lead to what is potentially a more real problem.
Ordinarily, my main interest in this article would be that the Republican Party chairman (boo hiss) was a year ahead of me at my high school. However, while I don't think Hawaii's in any danger of becoming a swing state, there may be a trend here that's going on under the radar and it would be best not to miss it lest it bite us later.
Many dismiss the election of Linda Lingle (R) to the governor's mansion as a fluke, and in part it was, because the once-popular mayor of Honolulu who was expected to run for governor got caught up in a pay-for-play scandal and the Dems were caught flat-footed. Think of what happened to Dan Rostenkowski's old district which briefly went R, but reverted back to D.
In recent memory there have been a few Republican successes in Hawaii, notably U.S. Rep Pat Saiki. Also, Hawaii's move from nearly being the first state to legalize gay marriage to having a DOMA would seem to indicate that things are not exactly going in a leftward direction. (Although Hawaii was never what I'd consider to be overly socially progressive).
However, Hawaii has been pretty securely in the hands of the Democratic "machine"--that comfortable political entity familiar to many. Is that still true? Although I'm looking at this from a distance, I would argue that the Democratic party in Hawaii is probably due for some new blood. It's not that Hawaii's leanings go naturally toward Republicans in any way, but like many Democratic core constituencies, people in the state feel taken for granted, and people who are taken for granted can express themselves in unexpected ways.
This is an "after the election" topic, to be sure, but Hawaii will be a place to watch to see how and if the Democratic party can revitalize itself.