Wow, just finished talking with my friend who is taking his senior year off from Yale to work for ACT. He has a good job there in DC.
He explained to me what he sees is happening.
He says that Bush is working on a plan that will get him 280 electoral votes thus leaving him very little margin for error. According to him Bush is basically conceding Ohio and Pennsylvania. (I wasn't sure about the accuracy that Bush is giving up on Ohio but I know he has basically given up on PA. My friend says that Bush is not going to Ohio anymore and is camping out in Iowa and Wisconsin for the rest of the week.)
So where does that leave Bush?
The strategy is to win: Florida(27), West Virginia(5), Arkansas(6), New Mexico(5), Colorado(9), Nevada(5), New Hampshire(4),Missouri(11), Wisconsin(10), Iowa(7).
So we are assuming that Minnesota(10) goes Kerry.
So a candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.
IF Bush pulls out all of the states needed in his strategy he will have 280.
So if Kerry pulls off a victory in: Florida(27), Missouri(11) AND wins both Ohio and Pennsylvania, which my ACT contact says he will, then Kerry wins.
Or Kerry could then win if he doesn't pull florida but wins any two of West Virginia(5), Arkansas(6), New Mexico(5), Nevada(5), New Hampshire(4),Iowa(7), Colorado (9), Wisonconsin(10)
I think that Kerry will win New Hampshire so then the question is: If Kerry wins BOTH ohio and pennsylvania, and then wins new hampshire can Kerry capture just one of: West Virginia, Arkansas, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, or Wisconsin?
Of course it would just be easier if Kerry won all three Florida, PA, Ohio.