According to a major Republican pollster, Tony Fabrizio, when minority voters are factored into poll results in the battleground states, Senator Kerry is almost at 50%, with Bush over
5 points behind!
Here is the beginning of the report. You may see the full report online at:
http://www.fabmac.com/FMA-2004-10-27-Battleground-Ballot.pdf
ALEXANDRIA, VA - Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (FMA), a Republican polling and strategic consulting firm based in Alexandria, VA, has just completed their third likely voter survey with interviews
conducted ONLY in the remaining 12 battleground states.*
In the three-way Presidential ballot, the race is dead tied in these crucial battleground states with BOTH President Bush and Sen. Kerry receiving 47% of the vote. Ralph Nader receives 1.6% while just 4% of the battleground state likely voters are undecided.
But the situation changes dramatically when minority voting patterns are factored into the polling equations and weighting models.
However, as the data below illustrates, when the data is weighted to reflect minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Sen. Kerry leads by 3.5% and if minority turnout is weighted to census levels Sen. Kerry's lead expands to 5.2%.
Therefore, my friends, I think we now see the GOP strategy: SUPPRESS THE MINORITY VOTE AT ALL COSTS! We need to adjust the GOTV and general ground game in full recognition of this fact. This may very well be the most important factor in a Kerry victory next Tuesday.