I cannot say for certain that it is the truth, but conventional wisdom has held at least during my lifetime that the hard core right wing folks have always turned out in much higher percentages than the Dems. This has been the wisdom repeated election after election since I was old enough to follow such things.
Given that there is any truth to this chestnut, any increase in turnout will MASSIVELY run disproportionately dem.
As a matter of fact, it is widely held that the massive negative campaigns of the republicans in years past were NOT intended to attract voters to there guys, but a cold calculation that liberal voters could be sickened enough to not bother to vote, but that the right was going to vote regardless.
I do know that every analysis I have ever seen says that high turnout favors democratic candidates, and low turnout favors republicans.
My head is spinning from all of the ways to try to read this thing, but right know, except for the frauds, there is NO negatives for Kerry, and we could seriously take the house and senate.
Mr Tek