Most of you by now know RealClearPolitics, the winger site that plays well in the SCLM by not entirely lacking any shred of integrity whatsoever.
They tend to play subtle games with their polls over there--which they include, which they toss--but on the whole they give fairly representative overviews.
With that in mind, check out (after the jump) their state poll averages--and this is what they've looked like for days:
- Florida: Bush + 1.7
- Ohio: Kerry +0.5
- Pennsylvania: Kerry +2.6
- Wisconsin: Kerry +1.0
- Iowa: Bush + 1.7
- Minnesota: Kerry +1.7
- Michigan: Kerry +3.3
- New Mexico: Bush + 4.0
- New Hampshire: Kerry +2.5
Ladies and gentlemen, if that holds, we have a new president. And of course it more than holds; Bush is stuck at 45-46% in many of these averages.
For the record (since I didn't make it in to the predictions thread on time), I predict Kerry wins 51% of the popular vote, including all of these states (even New Mexico), for a 300 + EV triumph.