My wife and I have been having nightly discussions on the state of the campaign. She is of the more nervous variety, from the primaries on. When the RNC concluded, and GWB's numbers went up, she was distraught. "Wait until the debates" I said. And the debates showed a surge for Kerry.
So, having done my homework here and elsewhere, it was obvious to me that the poll numbers were getting silly, if they were taken without delving into the specifics. My take is, and has been, than Kerry will win, and I'm guessing by about 60% of the EV, and likely the popular vote as well. I could be wrong, but here's my anecdotal evidence -
Last night was the last opportunity to vote early in NV. Polls were scheduled to stay open until 9:00. My wife had voted earlier in the week, and I needed to go right by the polling place to run some errands. So I went.
First surprise - The parking lot was full. Really full. Drive around it a couple times to find a spot full. May not seem like much, but this polling place is located in a trailer on the parking lot of a large shopping center. And I'm certain it wasn't a rush for a sale at Office Depot next door. I have been by this place many times, usually three or four times a week. I've never seen a car in this particular lot. As we've all discussed here, large turnout favors the Kerry camp. Even in NV.
Second surprise - about 150-200 people in line. Again, large turnout, but keep in mind that the line was outside, and the temps were dropping into the low 50's last night. Yet, folks were in line. And staying there. I arrived at 6:30. Folks were still arriving.
Third surprise - A significant number of minority voters, particularly African Americans. This is not a neighborhood that is dominated by any particular minority group. The area around the polling place is mainly newer homes, and definitely middle to upper-middle class. Again, as we have mentioned before, minorities may be a key to winning. I would guess 25-30% minorities in the line.
Fourth surprise - A whole lot of young voters. In fact, this polling place made it a point to cheer whenever a first time voter was given their electronic voting card. Here, I estimate about 5% of the voters coming in were new. 1 in 20. Doesn't sound like much, but 5% in this race could be enormous. And the younger voter tends to go...you guessed it - towards Kerry.
Fifth surprise - And definitely a pleasant one. A polling place official came out and let everyone in the line know that although the polling station officially closed at 9:00, if you were in line you would get to vote, no matter how long it took. Everyone would get their chance to vote. These folks were committed to letting people exercise their rights to choose.
Last surprise - It took about an hour to get through the line, cast my ballot, and exit. When I walked out, the temp had dropped to right around 50 degrees, and the line was longer than when I arrived. I had asked a worker in the polling station about the lines. She said the lines had been like that all day long. She's never seen anything like it.
As I got in my car, I felt good. Really good. The signs I saw were of new voters, of voters that lean towards Kerry, and of interest in general of my fellow Nevadans in making their voice heard. There were entire families there - Mom, Dad, and kids in tow. I saw multi-generational groups showing up. To me, these all point to something that the polls don't seem to be catching.
I believe these polls are using models based on voter habits of the past. Where the electorate didn't care enough to show up. Where fewer and fewer voters were making the choices for all of us. They're calling the folks that they think are likely to vote. That's where they've gotten it wrong. Their interpretation is too narrow for this race. When I see kids who look too young to need a razor stepping up to the voting machine, I know their opinion hasn't been judged. They don't fit the mold these pollsters are used to.
So, I think we're going to see a race that no one expects. I think we're going to see more votes roll towards Kerry than the pollsters are predicting. And I think we're going to get a change that has been long overdue.