Released: October 31, 2004
Young Mobile Voters Pick Kerry Over Bush, 55% to 40%, Rock the Vote/Zogby Poll Reveals: National Text-Message Poll Breaks New Ground
link here: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=919
Polling firm Zogby International and partner Rock the Vote found Massachusetts Senator John Kerry leading President Bush 55% to 40% among 18-29 year-old likely voters in their first joint Rock the Vote Mobile political poll, conducted exclusively on mobile phones October 27 through 30, 2004. Independent Ralph Nader received 1.6%, while 4% remain undecided in the survey of 6,039 likely voters. The poll is centered on subscribers to the Rock the Vote Mobile (RTVMO) platform, a joint initiative of Rock the Vote and Motorola Inc. (for more information: http://www.rtvmo.com). The poll has margin of error of +/-1.2 percentage points
The poll also found that only 2.3% of 18-29 year-old respondents said they did not plan to vote, and another .5% who were not sure if they would. The results of the survey are weighted for region, gender, and political party.
The Rock the Vote Mobile political poll was conducted using a sample group from Rock the Vote Mobile's 120,000-subscriber base. Participants in the Rock the Vote Mobile (RTVMO) platform, a civic engagement initiative launched last March by Rock the Vote and Motorola, Inc. (NYSE: MOT), responded to this poll between October 27 and October 30.
"The results of this text-message poll mirror what we're seeing in our more conventional polls," said John Zogby, CEO and president of Utica, N.Y.-based Zogby International. "Among 18-29 year-olds, Kerry leads the President by 14 points--55% to 41% in our current daily tracking poll--virtually identical to these results. Our text-message poll seems to have been validated by this experiment. All in all, I think we've broken some new ground in polling.
(Just Added)
It gives Kerry a push (4.00 / 4)
because traditional polls ask for "the adult with the next birthday" when they are polling, generally ruling out the gen-xrs.
Also, the fact that less than 3% of them say that they won't vote is HUGE... the young are known for being apathetic. I would have thought around 50% would say they wouldn't vote, based on my perceptions of that age in my life. I was shocked to read that they almost ALL plan to vote... (and intentions DO matter - intentions create action and results).
I've looked up the census bureau statistics for this age group:
(I, for some reason can't paste the link, but I went to U.S. Census Bureau Factfinder, then People, then Age)
Total population 281,421,906
15 to 19 years 20,219,890
20 to 24 years 18,964,001
25 to 29 years 19,381,336
Leaving out the 15-19 year population, those ages 20-29 are 13.6% of the population!!!! And, chances are, because of polling methods, they are not getting tallied in regular polls, even if they are getting tallieD in a buried Zogby poll.
Any news of support for Kerry is good news. News of SUPPORT FOR KERRY IN A SUBSTANTIAL PORTION OF THE POPULATION THAT HAS NEVER VOTED BEFORE is very, very huge...
Let the positive keep flowing, and the truth be told. We cannot afford "four more years", and I believe that the young will not only vote, but they will influence their parents as well, as has happened in our family...
GO KERRY!