Here's something you seldom see in the SCLM: I will highlight to all what was probably
the most boneheaded analysis I've ever made on Daily Kos. Jeeze, saying the Iowa Caucuses would have little or no effect on the results of the New Hampshire primary has to be one of the dumbest things I've ever written.
Why do I highlight an obscure comment buried within a long-forgotten thread posted ten months ago? Because I want to remember that case of forced humility as I go out on a bit of a limb and make a prediction: Kerry is going to win big.
It's still possible that Bush could pull it off, and it's even more possible that Bush could again win the Presidency through litigation. But the odds are getting more lopsided in favor of at least a solid Kerry win, with improving odds of a Kerry landslide.
I've been open to the possibility of a Kerry landslide since April. Nothing since then has dissuaded me of that possibility. The race, as far as we can tell, has the appearance of being close, but with indications of great early voting numbers coming out of places like Iowa and inspiring stories about people determined to have their votes counted in Florida, the early, admittedly highly anecdotal evidence points to good things. Add the news from Ohio, the tightening polls in places like Arkansas and Nevada, the fact that Kerry is polling better than Gore did on the verge of the election, and that the Dems stand to gain much more from the intensified GOTV efforts, relatively, than should the Republicans, and there is much to suggest that Kerry should do extremely well on Tuesday.
So, I decided to do something I almost never do: make a prediction. Kerry will win big--big as in over 5% (which is big in terms of the last several Presidential races), and big as in 311 or more electoral votes.
This isn't over, and as I clearly stated in April, my confidence in our chances is by no means an excuse for anybody to let up for even 5 seconds. Follow through on the GOTV work, continue to talk to your friends and neighbors, and do whatever we need to do to elect Dems up and down the ballot. But do it with confidence, because we're on the verge of a momentous and deeply satisfying victory.