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Ok first everyone, let's take a deeeep breath.

Cool, alright sorry I was late to this party, but I was out all Halloween and didn't see the Kos post on New Mexico until right now. I'm a long time lurker on this site (which is wonderful by the way) but this is the first area I've felt confident enough to post in with a great degree of certainty.

First off, if you've never lived in New Mexico or don't know a significant part of it's history don't even try and guess it's dynamics from a few loose polls and bureau statistics. No offense, it's just impossible since this is one of the most diverse and complex states of the union. I've lived in New Mexico my entire life, growing up in the liberal north central Taos and now attending the University of New Mexico in much more moderate Albuquerque as a political science major. My dad is a history major, specializing on New Mexico history, and still teaches at the University of New Mexico Taos branch. I grew up learning about this place.

Next, any outside or national poll taken of New Mexico is worth as much as that one key on you're key chain that you have no idea what it opens. They're worthless. Utterly. They don't know how to take good samples of the various groups and people that make up this state. Do not listen to them. The only pollster that even comes close to capturing this makeup is Brain Sanderoff, the pollster for the Albuquerque Journal. He still leans conservative most of the time, but he has a much more accurate view of the state then any outside pollster.    

Sanderoff gave a presentation in my honors class several weeks back, and he laid out how he polls. He rightly breaks the state into five categories. The north-central part of the state is made up mostly of native Hispanics, who have been there for generations, and liberal whites so that's solid dem territory. The eastern half of the state, a desert hellhole by the way, is called little Texas for a reason. The north-central and eastern half of the state are the same population size, and will cross each other out as always. The southwest and northwest parts of the state are more complex. They have strong Democratic Native Americans who essential make these two regions a draw with the conservative whites. These are the two least populated regions of the state so they matter little anyway. Then we have the most important area, Albuquerque metro, where the race will be decided. 1/3 of the states population lives here, and it is not only a microcosm of the state, but of the nation as a whole. If you follow voting patterns (not registration) it remains an immensely competitive area for both Congress and the President's race.

So if this race comes down to Albuquerque, let's examine the city then. First let's see who's being underpolled. Even on Sanderoff's poll the main miss here is the universal miss: new voters. Particularly young ones. I early voted this year, as most of my friends, all first time voters, and the lines are already enormous. No mistake, people are getting out to vote. Pollers aren't reaching a lot of these new voters, particuarlly younger ones. I live off a cell phone, as do most college students here, and not a single person of the dozens I've asked have ever been polled over the cell phone. All voted, and trust me there lot's more of that.
Then there's the ground game in Albuquerque. City wide, overall, theres no doubt of the majority of Kerry/Edwards bumper stickers and yard signs. It's not even close, even counting the heavily Republican areas, such as the northeast heights. The Kerry office for the city ALWAYS has something going on, and the last week I've driven past there there's literally been swarms of volunteers holding signs or piling into the building.  

Last, there's a few small variables. One is the largely underpolled Native American vote, which will be overwhelming for Kerry in this election. Another, which I discovered when canvassing, is the large number of people who normally vote conservative, but this year are splitting their ticket for Kerry/Heather Wilson. There's lots of other quirks I could bore you with, such as the general mood of the city, but I can sat with a great deal of certainty when Kerry wins this year New Mexico will be closely contested but blue true and true.  

edit: and revisement.

First to answer some of the questions posed on the comment threads, I could go into long boring detail of the history of this state to explain it's diversity. Look at northern New Mexico hispanics. The great majority are not newcomers. They've been settled along down the Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico starting around the mid 1500's (which by the way is much longer then anyone was chilling on our eastern coast). They we're isolated from both US influences and Mexican rule for several hundred years, giving them their very unique little culture. They are overwhelmingly Democrats, even though most are socially conserative. They, like any intellegent indivduals, vote their brains and pocketbooks however, not by their Catholic faith, which is what makes them so Democratic, like they've been since FDR's New Deal, and like they will continue to be.

Eastern Ranchers, the very complex Four Corners regions, and modern immigrants (from both Mexico and more Angelo parts of the US such as Texas) make alot of history I could cover here.

Suffice to say national polling has no idea how to capture these quirks. Hispanics and Native Americans are always underpolled, and the diverse Angelo culture here make them hard to track as well. Throw in the strong military instituions in the state, along with our known independent streak (and general disstaste for Texans who tried to invade this state three seperate time, failing each turn) and you see why it's near impossible to track from the outside. Lastly, it was metioned of the HUGE GOTV effort here, which will make a diffrence as well. It really has been enormous, as even I'm sick of them asking me at least three times a day to go vote. And they are going to vote. To be told their not is a Republican stadegy several of my Repub friend's have already tried to convince me of. It's simply not true. People are not only being pestered, they know they live in a swing state, and a huge number truly do care.

Originally posted to up and atom on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 01:19 AM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  please recommend... (3.95)
    if this helps convince you how sure I am on this matter! New Mexico is John Kerry's folks ! :)
    •  As an occaisional visitor to NM (none)
      I've noticed that outside viewers don't comprehend New Mexico politically. Way to go UpandAtom, red or green? (they won't get the joke).
    •  This morning's weather report for NM (none)
      (apologies for the uppercase. sic)

      WEATHER SUMMARY FOR NEW MEXICO
      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
      530 AM MST MON NOV 1 2004

      ...WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR WINTER WEATHER AND WIND
      HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

      A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
      AFFECTED PARTS OF NEW MEXICO SUNDAY EVENING. THERE WAS A LULL IN THE
      ACTIVITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
      OCCURRED AS DAWN APPROACHED. THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE FAR
      SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WHILE SNOW SHOWERS APPROACHED THE
      PORT OF ENTRY NEAR RATON FROM THE NORTH. A STRONG COLD FRONT  PUSHED
      INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE BY EARLY MORNING WITH NORTH
      WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES VARIED
      BETWEEN THE 20S OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST TO THE 40S OVER THE
      SOUTHEAST. HIGHS SUNDAY RANGED FROM 44 AT RED RIVER TO 70 AT ROSWELL.

      PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY...
      EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TO ENVELOP MUCH OF THE STATE. THE LOWLANDS OF
      THE SOUTH WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHILE THE NORTH AND THE
      HIGHER TERRAIN EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE CENTRAL AND EAST
      WILL BE A TRANSITION ZONE WITH VARIOUS WEATHER TYPES POSSIBLE WHILE
      THE WEST STANDS THE LEAST CHANCE OF GETTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

      SOME LOCATIONS WILL INITIALLY SEE SNOWS MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE
      GROUND...BUT COLDER CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT WITH
      ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD INTO
      THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.  STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL TEAM UP WITH THE SNOW
      TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE THREAT OF
      STRONG WINDS...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...COLD WIND CHILLS AND
      ACCUMULATING SNOWS HAVE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF VARIOUS WARNINGS
      AND ADVISORIES FOR WINTRY OR WINDY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
      HEAVIEST SNOWS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND ALONG THE
      EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

      TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL AFTER MID MORNING IN
      MANY LOCATIONS TODAY. SOME AREAS WILL SEE THEIR FIRST SIGNIFICANT
      FREEZE LATER TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE
      REGION. THOSE IN THE FAR SOUTH THAT ARE SPARED FROM A FREEZE TONIGHT
      WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE END OF THE GROWING SEASON TUESDAY
      NIGHT.

      In 2000, I drove 90 miles through snowfall to get home to vote; there was almost a foot on my driveway by the time I got home in the early evening.

      don't always believe what you think

      by claude on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 05:23:48 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  New Mexico weather (none)
        In the winter of 1950-51, I was stationed at Sandia Base, near Albuquerque.  On one occassion, while playing golf at the U of NM course, we saw a dust storm, rain, snow, and brilliant sunshine in the space of 4 hours.  

        We usually spend a month in August at Ruidoso or Red River... what a beautiful place NM is.  

        Oh what a tangled web we weave, When first we practise to deceive! Sir Walter Scott.

        by tomathawl on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 06:57:58 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Navajos Key to NM and AZ (none)
      Thanks for this post.  Make sure everyone reads this story and related links of how Navajos could tip NM and AZ in favor of Kerry:

      http://www.indianz.com/News/2004/005095.asp

      •  Navahos have a history of saving (none)
        America.  I remember their help in WWII.  Along with other native American speakers they confounded the Germans.  Now I hope you've come to save us again.  (Although all of us may not be as deserving of your help.)
    •  Great analysis. (none)
      Thanks for breaking down the state for us.  I find the geographic chessboard one of the most fascinating things about politics from a strategic perspective.  I am not from New Mexico, but I believe the numbers point to a Kerry victory.  Simply, this is an election that Bush can't win.  

      "Two daiquiris/ withdrew into a corner of the gorgeous room/ and one told the other a lie." John Berryman -- Dream Song 16

      by Twodaiquiris on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 10:35:36 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Up and Atom is right on (none)
      I'm a pretty seasoned elections person who has been working on GOTV in the more conservative areas of Albuquerque Metro for the last three weeks. This analysis rings true and conforms to my recent, intensive, experience.

      America is a broken promise, and we are called to do what we can to fix it. -- Bill Moyers

      by janinsanfran on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 12:26:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  asdf (none)
    Great diary - I'll definitely recommend.

    If it doesn't make it up top tonight (since it's late), you should definitely re-post tomorrow.

  •  Dead On (none)
    Speaking as another native New Mexican, now living in DC, you are dead on.  Abq metro will definitely decide this race and if my recent visits are any indication, all signs point to K/E.  
    Head to the Frontier on Wed and have a victory breakfast for me!
    •  sounds like a good victory day to me! (none)
      will do! (PS frontier rocks :D)
    •  Another New Mexican in DC? (none)
      Be still my heart!  (Born and raised in Albuquerque, going to grad school in DC.)

      Have you found any decent Mexican food anywhere in DC?  My standards are sadly low at this point...looking for something that does not involve tomato paste or American cheese...

      (Sorry for the OT-ness: please return to discussing my crazy state.  And remember to say three Our Fathers and 10 Hail Bills (Richardson, that is) tonight before bedtime...)

  •  Albuquerque Journal endorsed Bush today. (none)
    What should we take from that?
  •  two sisters-in-law attended UNM (none)
    so we've spent a fair amount of time there.  Also were long-time subscribes to New Mexico magazine ("One of our 505 is missing").   From what I know of watching the state over the past 25 years or so, this analysis is right on.

    Also, from what I have seen, the turnout increase this time should be fairly humongous relative to 2000, and I do not think that outside polls come anywhere near taking that into account.

    Those that can, do. Those that can do more, TEACH!

    by teacherken on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 03:26:09 AM PST

  •  Not the only complex state (none)
    it's just impossible since this is one of the most diverse and complex states of the union.

    yes "one of." it's worth noting that many of the swing states are laid out across region borders and often contain pockets of politically particular peoples - FL, MO, PA, WI, and OH all qualify.

    •  Oregon is pretty damn weird (none)
      Anyone who thinks that this is a "liberal state" hasn't really travelled much here. We have dominant liberal pockets on a conservative landscape. When you throw in the east-west, rural-urban, coast/valley/desert mix, it gets pretty damn funky. We have a high proportion of people willing to vote extreme minor parties on either side.

      Growing up in Roseburg, I was the token liberal in my government class... my best friend was the token moderate.

      In Eugene, my daughter goes to a school where I'd be shocked if one single family was supporting Bush this election.

      BTW... in high school I saw the same damn "anything goes tactics" from the group of my classmates who later became lawyers of the worst sort. Now, I'm married to a lawyer of the best sort, but let's just say I'm never, ever shocked by what the Republican party does. Angered, yes. Shocked. Nah.

      George Bush is Nehemiah Scudder

      by jenrose on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 03:15:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Thank you! (none)
    Glad you decided to hop right in with your first diary. As they say in Englsih classes-write about what you know-you did that very well.
    One factor you did not mention and I wonder if it is a factor-Richardson as Gov. I hear he is very popular. First-is that the case and secondly-is he having an impact?
    •  well... (none)
      I particuarly don't like Richardson that much, but hey's one of the most powerful people in the state. He's known to strong arm a lot of people, including others in his own party, just to get results. I actually can't recall him doing much for Kerry except show up at his rallys.

      In the end Kerry doesn't need him to win anyway.

  •  New Mexico voter fraud/supression (none)
    For the New Mexico experts out there, it's been reported that many native american votes and latino votes tend to be tossed somewhere along the process and therefore not counted. That is, New Mexico is no different than Florida and other states that engage in these practices. How does that sound to you as New Mexico experts?
    •  There have been some purges (none)
      in the Re'Thug controlled counties. (Roswell city and others) The northern part of the state, with the exception of far northwestern NM (Farmington, San Juan County) is solidly controled by the Democratic machine. In my county (San Miguel, Las Vegas city) the entire apparatus of voting and registration is in complete Hispanic Democrat control.  They do allow us anglos to help, however.

      don't always believe what you think

      by claude on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 05:37:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Purges (none)
        Unfortunately a guy I know who was registered in Carlsbad and voted in previous elections somehow got purged.  He only found out last week, too late to correct the problem.  That would have been a Democratic vote in NM.  When he was talking to the clerk over the phone, she said she had fielded several calls like that the same day.
        •  PROVISIONAL BALLOT!!! (none)
          PLEASE make certain to tell your friend who was wrongly purged from the voter registration lists that he has the absolute right, by federal law, to request a provisional ballot.  His vote will be counted (if it's not tossed illegally, of course) once they do the proper investigation to determine that his name should not have been purged from the list.  No one had the right to tell him that it was "too late" to fix it in time for him to vote.

          Everyone, please make sure that everyone you know is aware that they can cast a provisional ballot.  No election official has the right to tell you that you cannot vote tomorrow!

          I do not suffer fools gladly

          by GreekGirl on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 02:34:33 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  unfortunatly... (none)
      that sounds about dead on in some places. we're fighting it now in the places its obvious, but i'm almost certain some votes will go lost on Tuesday.

      Sad...but thats what we're fighting against.

  •  Amen. (4.00)
    First off, if you've never lived in New Mexico or don't know a significant part of it's history don't even try and guess it's dynamics from a few loose polls and bureau statistics. No offense, it's just impossible since this is one of the most diverse and complex states of the union.

    This NM resident (for over a third of a century) who has lived all over the north and in ABQ, has no fears.

    The GOTV efforts here are utterly unprecedented, as is the level of major-candidate courting of our vote. Focus and interest in the election is also unprecedented. The 'thugs are desparate enough to sent their top man (Butch) here today to try to shore up Heather Wilson.  For five (5) EVs.  

    As another poster above pointed out, the Hispanic situation here is unique in the US in that NM has always been their turf and they control a lot of it. I haven't spoken to a single Hispanic who is voting for Butch, although they do exist; there are occaisonal "Viva Bush" bumperstickers, but they are far outnumbered by KE stickers. Ditto for yard signs.  All  my neighbors (95% Hispanic) who have their kids in the service pray for their kids and will vote Kerry, or already have.

    The Dem Party is organized enough to be getting a poll-watcher in every precinct, even those such as in my area, which will give Kerry close to 80% of the vote, based on it's support fot Gore in 2000.  I'll be watching a precinct in Las Vegas, NM, tomorrow.

    Finally, an amazing number of crusty old timers, folks who have never voted or haven't in decades have gotten themselves registered and will vote or have already voted.

    NM stays blue.

    don't always believe what you think

    by claude on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 04:49:45 AM PST

    •  Better (none)
      This quote/analysis:

      The GOTV efforts here are utterly unprecedented

      In my humble opinion, is leaps and bounds more helpful than the entire diary.

      As I note below -- simply pointing out that New Mexico is "diverse" ain't saying much.

      New York is ridiculously divers and its Blue as can be.  Same with Los Angeles.

      I understand that it is quirky and that part of its personality is that it doesn't really have a consistent personality (and, that it celebrates that) doesn't count for much in my book.

      Were I not in Wisconsin this weekend and on Election Day, I'd be happy to fly out to ABQ and canvass / GOTV and fill my tummy with yummy food from The Frontier!

  •  Nader and Richardson (none)
    Any thoughts on how much Nader will be a factor or if Richardson helps the cause?

    "I don't want to wake up on Nov 3 with George Bush still president and ask myself if there was anything more I could have done." -- Moby

    by lapis on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 05:27:43 AM PST

    •  Nader/Richardson ? (4.00)
      Richardson is a big help. He is well-liked here, and won by a huge majority two years ago.  The New Mexico Greens have disavowed Nader (Abe Gutman, on of the founders of the Green Party here has publicly called for Greens to support Kerry.)  My old friend, Carol Miller, who is still the largest single recipient of Green votes in a National-level election back in the late 90s (17%), is rabidly pro-Nader, but she's impossibly hard-core, and somewhat isolated in her community. I've stopped speaking to her lately, as have some of her neighbors. She does work very hard for NM rural health-care facilities, so I will probably forgive her, unless Butch wins here (unlikely).

      don't always believe what you think

      by claude on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 05:50:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Been working in suburban Albuquerque Metro (none)
        and MANY of the most diligent canvassers and phoners have been Greens. For this time, they want the Dems. This seems to go to the state legislative level as well.

        America is a broken promise, and we are called to do what we can to fix it. -- Bill Moyers

        by janinsanfran on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 12:50:11 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks and help (none)
    I completely agree. My wife's family is from southwest NM. I did my part by getting my Conservative Evangelical Christian mother-in-law to move from New Mexico to New York since the last Presidential election. One less Republican in NM and one more cancelled out in NY...

    ...now can someone just tell me how to get her to shut up.

    "Never engage in a war of words with anyone who buys ink by the barrel." - Samuel Clemens

    by thales on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 05:30:06 AM PST

  •  I never believed NM would go for Bush (none)
    I have lived in West Texas most of my life and my parents own a small cabin up in Ruidoso, NM so we have frequently travelled through the state, mostly the southwestern areas. It is a beautiful state so it's hard not to keep returning. Anyway, I had a hard time believing the post on the main site because the overall feeling that I get of New Mexicans is their love for the environment. They're the first place I've seen that offers biofuels at the pump (or have signs that they soon will).

    I attended the Kerry in Las Cruces rally (my diary on it here) on the 23rd and I saw a huge diversity of people. They estimated about 10,000 people attended in a city with around 70,000. They all seemed in great humor. And there's a lot of campaigning going on in the area as well. General Wesley Clark came this past weekend and Deidre Hall and other Days of Our Lives characters were signing autographs and the like for Kerry as well.

    I just won't believe it if New Mexico goes Red...

    More coverage of the Kerry in Las Cruces rally can be found here and here.

  •  I'm out of here until late tonight. (4.00)
    I'll check back in after my poll-watcher training-credentialing tonight in Las Vegas (NM)

    Keep the faith

    don't always believe what you think

    by claude on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 05:54:24 AM PST

  •  We're all here in Jemez right now (none)
    All my sibs and their significant others came out from CA to my Mom's here for our early Thanksgiving (we do it in October annually because we all have infants or toddlers and air travel around Nov 26th is a NIGHTMARE with little ones).

    I'm sorry to see that weather report upthread, 'cause we'll be out today for SAGE and out tomorrow for ACT.

    Any ABQ-specific tips for us eager GOTV'ers?

  •  Devil's Advocate . . . Sorta (none)
    I'm encouraged that you are encouraged, but I'm not terribly moved by several things you state here.

    First, just saying that NM is "one of the most diverse and complex states of the union" doesn't say much.

    Sure, it has "influences" in Eastern NM from Texas.  And sure, there are a mix of Anglo, Native American, and Mexican here.  And, Santa Fe to Taos and many north central parts have their "hippy" democrats.  Finally, there is no doubt that metro ABQ is the most "dense" and it "all comes down to there."

    But is this really saying much?

    Even the analysis of ABQ is a bit mundane.  Its the repeat of what is "CW" on dKos -- that the young, cell-phone UNM kids aren't being counted so that polling disproportionately is counting the defense industry Anglos who live in the NE heights.

    You could probably adapt this analysis for nearly any state.

    Illinois has huge Missouri and Kentucky "influences" in the southern parts.  In the North, we border Wisconsin and have a healthy mix of blue-collar Catholics, but also secular northerners.

    The majority of the population lives in Chicago and the surrounding suburbs -- Du Page Co. Lake Co. etc.

    Now, among those, there are the "Limosine liberals" in Evanston and up the North Shore.  Also, there is the enclave of Liberals in Oak Park.  But, of course, they are counterbalanced by the conservative suburban voters in Naperville, etc.

    Now, adding to the complexity is the fact that Chicago is so ethicnally diverse -- White, Black, Latino (Mexican, Puerto Rican, and Cuban) -- which have different influences.

    But ultimately, they are undercounting folks at Northwester, U of I  . . . .  you get the point.  (Actually, Illinois is not a particularly good example since Chicago proper so, far and away, domiminates the rest of the state).

    But simply saying "Albuquerque" doesn't say much since Albuquerque proper is just one giant suburb stretching from the Airport to Paseo del Norte and from Unser Blvd (have the Unsers campaigned for Bush?) to Tramway.  The fact that we can even describe a "Northeast Heights" is telling.  Its certainly not "urban" there -- and anyone who's been can attest to that.  It is certainly not "urban" in the same way that NY or Chicago is, or even, for that matter, the way Milwaukee is.

    So, like I said, I appreciate your optimism. And, I hope you are right.

    "It comes down to ABQ and whether the young kids will vote," though, isn't a terribly novel theory.

    •  There's data for optimism (none)
      in NM. I dumped this down at the end of a GOTV thread a few days ago but will repeat here.

      As of Weds. Oct. 27:

      ABQ:
      158,531 Dems voted (31% of total registered Dems)
      116, 926 (32% of total registered Reps)
      63,287 (18% of registered "other")
      4091 (20% of Greens)

      Sandoval County (Albuquerque exurb):
      29,227 (24% of total registered Dems)
      22,278 (25% of total registered Reps)
      12,017 (16% of registered "other")
      429 (16% of registered Greens)

      Doña Ana County (Las Cruces)
      47,607 (23% of Dems)
      27,907 (25% of Reps)
      18422 (13% of "other")
      303 (58% of Greens)

      This was just early voting, not including absentee. By now, we are estimating about 55% of potential votes have been cast -- still in these proportions.

      In haste -- got packets to prep.

      America is a broken promise, and we are called to do what we can to fix it. -- Bill Moyers

      by janinsanfran on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 12:55:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Great analysis (none)
    A native Hispanic myself (now living in Mass.), I have made the same observations as the poster.  And while I allowed myself to get a little down by the Albuquerque Journal's 47 Bush -44 Kerry poll rating for the state yesterday, I know that registration is huge this year and that many (many many) recently registered folks have already voted.

    I have been working with Election Protection, and have been assigned a polling site for the election tomorrow.  It's encouraging to see the extents of the GOTV effort this year, and the number of canvassers in the traditionally ignored areas of Albuquerque.  New Mexico will not be lost.  

  •  Hispanic Turnout Key In NM (none)
        I live in Taos (North Central NM) and GOTV operations by ACT, MoveOn and K/E have been in high gear for months. My take on the state is K/E needs a high Hispanic turnout to win here.  Hispanics generally have  registered and voted in percentages below that of the heavily Anglo/Bush Eastern NM and of Anglos in general. I wish that were not the case but  no sense in painting a rosy scenario. It comes down to this in NM:

     If Hispanics vote in record numbers Kerry has a very good chance, if Hispanics just vote a little above average, Kerry loses.

  •  On the ground in Farmington (none)
    Just a bit of second-hand news, from my parents in Farmington, where both Bush and Cheney have visited in recent weeks.

    Things are getting U-G-L-Y there, as the Rethugs are vandalizing/stealing signs, intimidating voters, and generally being annoying. My folks' KE sign was stolen, as was their neighbors' (who then put up a handmade sign that said "Republicans stole my yard sign!"). Another friend of theirs in a similar home (on the edge of a mesa) had signs in front and back of their house; teenage GOoPers tried to take 'em both simultaneously in the middle of the night, but were caught by the owner!

    And then there were the other teenage rethugs sticking pro-Bush flyers on cars in the Catholic church parking lot. My Dad laid into them hard, and they just fled.

    The short of it is the same as just about every other swing area: lots of angst, anger, and activism. I don't doubt that San Juan County will (unfortunately) tilt to Bush, but with a changing and growing population, hopefully it won't be that way for too much longer.

  •  I get my kicks (4.00)
    on Rt. 66.

    The main Kerry headquarters in Albuquerque is on Central Avenue, a.k.a. Route 66.

    About 20 of us stood on the medians with Kerry signs, and no one tried to shoot us, ha ha!

    I never lie. I willfully engage in a campaign of misinformation. -- Fox Mulder

    by Page van der Linden on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 07:26:53 AM PST

  •  Op-Ed in the NYT by Tony Hillerman (none)
    Tony Hillerman has an op-ed in today's New York Times:

    Albuquerque, Found at Last

    Now, with polls showing the race undecided, our puny five-vote delegation looks very important. And New Mexicans are not used to this. We are used to being ignored. We love it that way. One of the most popular monthly features in New Mexico magazine is called "One of Our 50 Is Missing.'' It consists of reports about folks in other states refusing to accept our "foreign" credit cards, asking if one needs a visa to visit a friend in Albuquerque, or demanding a foreign postage charge to send the pair of shoes you've ordered from their catalog. Now, it seems, our fellow Americans finally know what country our state is in. I'm not the only one hoping that after tomorrow, they'll forget.


    I never lie. I willfully engage in a campaign of misinformation. -- Fox Mulder

    by Page van der Linden on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 07:42:15 AM PST

    •  as someone (none)
      who grew up in Hawaii, and got royally tired of being told, "We don't ship internationally", constantly discovering that "nationwide" really means "contiguous 48", being asked what kind of money we use, what language we speak (a frightening number of US Mainlanders have told me how good my English is upon learning I'm from HI), what kind of government we have, and so on, I'm actually pretty glad to hear that we're not the only state to get this treatment :P
  •  I posted this in the other NM thread (none)
    but the Bernalillo County clerk stated on the news last night that 42% of registered voters in her county have already voted either early or absentee!  That's alot!

    The GOTV effort hear seems to be working. Hopefully the weather will be good to us. It's supposed to be clear and cold. Beats raining and cold!  I just saw on KOB-TV's site that schools in the Albuqurque area will be closed tomorrow to prevent crowded parking lots at polling places.

    PS:
    Heh heh. Bush is having a rally here tonight at the Journal Pavillion. It's not an easy place to get to (I've yet to attend a show because there's only one road in/out) it's not a large venue and we're under a winter storm watch. The forecast high today is only 45. It will be interesting to see what kind of turn out that rally gets. Clinton had about 7-10k yesterday on a beautiful, warm Albuquerque day!

    Bad officials are elected by good citizens who do not vote - George Jean Nathan

    by awnm on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 09:05:48 AM PST

  •  diversity (none)
    I guess that ethnic diversity does not have to coincide with political diversity.  You may have 100 ethnic groups in NYC that have a similar pattern of voting preferences.

    Political peculiarity of NM was the strength of Green movement that tipped elections anumber of times to GOP.  Another peculiarity is that Indians are probably very difficult to poll and their turnout can vary a lot -- perhaps even more than in the case of other minorities.

    NM Latinos are peculiar, but politically, how do they differ from Northern Democrats?  Perhaps they do.  What is the political base of Greens, anyway?

    PS.  I visited NM only twice, and I was impressed how much Indian lifestyle is different from Anglos.  Imagine driving through a desert, no house or hogan in sight, and a local guy is walking. Not hiking, not exercising, just getting from A to B.  This is a very different attitude to space, time, everything.

  •  Monahan panel predicts (none)
    Short clips from Joe Monahan's NM prediction roundtable:
    Top Dem NM Lobbyist Scott Scanland ... Kerry wins NM by two points

    GOP Political consultant and state legislative candidate Greg Payne ... Bush in NM

    UNM Poly Sci prof Gil St. Clair leans R ... Kerry will win New Mexico

    Veteran politico Kurt Lohbeck ... very narrow Bush victory in New Mexico

    Former ABQ Mayor Jim Baca ... lifetime Dem ... 52% for Kerry, 47% for Bush and 1% for Nader.

    The Green Party's Steve Cabiedes ... will vote for Nader ... predicts Bush will carry the state by ... one-half of one percent.

    Dem activist and pollster Harry Pavlides ... Kerry--50.71%, Bush--47.0%

    Political junkie and ABQ Weekly Alibi managing editor Tim McGivern ... still likes Kerry

    veteran NM R consultant Bruce Donisthorpe ... Republican ticket wins by 1,000 votes

  •  fellow taosena (none)
    I'm from Taos as well and pretty much agree with the assessment of how the state will be decided in Albuquerque metro. Another consideration that I am aware of from personal converstations is that many American Indians actually vote democrat even if they are registered republicans and even if they contribute to republicans. Plus, we have three NM National Guard units in Iraq right now and many families are affected by the war.

    We had a visit from Teresa Heinz Kerry and the Gov on Saturday in our very liberal democrat town.

    coverage in The Taos News

    a couple of pics (how do I embed / post the images? what code?)

    http://www.taosnews.com/db/dbimages/000283.jpeg

    http://www.taosnews.com/db/dbimages/000284.jpeg

  •  diversity (none)
    In response to other poster's dissatisfaction with the term "diversity" in this context, let me offer a thumbnail sketch of electoral politics in New Mexico.  For a more detailed/ good picture, look up John Nieto Phillips new book on New Mexico's statehood struggle.
    Most of the territory annexed by the US during the Mexican American War was quickly overrun by Anglos and given statehood (see Texas and California).  Lacking both Texas's farmland and California's ports and mineral wealth, New Mexico and Arizona had populations that were mostly Native American and Mexican well into the 20th century.  As territoritorial subjects, New Mexicans were forced to mediate all disputes through central authorities in DC, which you can imagine led to quite a bit of legal hanky-panky on the part of unscrupulous land agents.  
    One of the results of this situation is that in New Mexico there developed a very cohesive group of Hispanos that saw themselves as in a common struggle to maintain land rights.  In addition, this group had to become very legally sophisticated in order to gain statehood, and through that self-rule.  These historical factors make New Mexican Hispanos (blush blush) a lot more politically determined, and sorry to say it Californios and Tejanas, savvy.  The Democratic machine here is descended from the statehood struggle-- we crammed our Hispano selves into the halls of congress, so mere electoral politics is pretty routine.
    What worries me? The number of weirdo Californians moving into the burbs, driving their horrible suv's because it snows once a year here.  Enough of them might throw us... the consequences for New Mexican Hispanos could be much deeper than a mere presidential election.  It would be sea change in New Mexican politics.
    I apologize for leaving out factors like KAFB, the labs, etc.  I especially apologize to real historians.  I just hope that dKos readers understand that New Mexico is a truly exceptional place, and that Zogby's poll is pretty much a funny until the votes are counted.

    Downhill from a Saab liberal.

    by pedant on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 10:10:42 AM PST

  •  After all, doesn't iT just seem unlikely (none)
    that New Mexicans will choose a wealthy Texan for ANYTHING?

    November 2: We're hacking up a hairball.

    by perro amarillo on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 10:11:15 AM PST

  •  also see (none)
    Check out the other top story in the taos news

     "Nearly 40 percent vote early"

    Nov. 1 - Shortly after early voting ended Saturday (Oct. 30), Taos County Clerk Jeannette Rael tallied up 8,720 absentee and early ballots cast by voters who aren't having a problem making up their minds.

    That's 37.6 percent of the 23,146 voters who are registered in the county. Rael estimated that 2,500 of the ballots were from absentee voters.

    "It's way up from the early ballots cast in the 2000 election," Rael said. "We are expecting a lot of provisional and absentee in lieu of ballots to be voted on election day."

    woo hoo!

  •  Hey folks, I made some edits, (none)
    So check out the new information I've added to the diary! Thanks!
  •  Spanish language studies... (none)
    This is a little off topic, but did you know that language scholars from Spain still travel to New Mexico to study the regional Spanish dialect as it has remained relatively unchanged since the late 1500s because of the isolation you mentioned?  It is like traveling back to the beginning of the Renaissance and studying English.

    I used to be paranoid until I lost my self-esteem. Who is going to waste their time following me?

    by Mote Dai on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 02:28:09 PM PST

  •  What about 2000 then? (none)
    If the polls don't cover how close it is, then what about 2000?
  •  I have briefly lived in New Mexico (none)
    New Mexicans know about things many Republicans, particularly those in elective offices, can't even imagine, i.e., poverty, discrimination, shortages of water or power, and so on.

    So I wouldn't think the wise, long-suffering people of such a terrific state would have much sympathy for the policies of this recklessly incompetent gaggle of thieves.

    New Mexico is Kerry country!

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