This is an update of a previous diary. I have tried to gather the latest voter registration totals by state and estimate the turnout this year. I have utilized individual state websites and a summary by
Michael McDonald. I would welcome your feedback if you feel any state estimate is unreasonable. More recent registration numbers or reports by state officials on expected turnout would also be appreciated. These estimates rely on past voting behavior, personal observation and news reports from Secretaries of State on expected turnout.
GOTV is crucial. 125 million is VERY possible and should mean a Kerry victory.
Values are in thousands. ND and WI do not require registration before election day. Additionally, those states with a plus (+) allow registration on Nov. 2. Columns include number of registered voters 2004, percent of registered voters voting in 2000, my estimate of percent of registered voters voting in 2004, and expected number of votes to be cast in 2004. The registered voter column lists "active" voters, as those are the voters historically used to determine turnout percentages. In some states additional "inactive" voters are certainly part of the potential voting pool.
R.V. 2000 2004 Turnout 2004 Vote
Turnout Projected Projected
AL 2577 66% 68% 1752
AK 461 60% 66% 304
AZ 2643 70% 76% 2009
AR 1686 59% 68% 1146
CA 16557 63% 68% 11259
CO 3065 77% 82% 2513
CT 1900 78% 77% 1463
DE 536 65% 67% 359
DC 369 57% 62% 229
FL 10301 68% 77% 7932
GA 4249 67% 72% 3059
HI 647 58% 67% 433
ID 660+ 69% 70% 476
IL 7300 66% 70% 5110
IN 4200 55% 62% 2604
IA 2064 71% 81% 1672
KS 1650 66% 69% 1139
KY 2790 60% 65% 1814
LA 2901 65% 71% 2060
ME 990+ 74% 80% 824
MD 2950 76% 78% 2301
MA 4000 68% 72% 2880
MI 7164 62% 75% 5379
MN 2950+ 75% 81% 2471
MS 1750 57% 62% 1085
MO 4206 61% 68% 2860
MT 700 59% 62% 434
NE 1100 64% 66% 726
NV 1071 68% 80% 857
NH 870+ 66% 76% 692
NJ 4800 68% 72% 3456
NM 1092 62% 78% 852
NY 11837 62% 68% 8049
NC 5503 57% 70% 3852
ND * * * 298
OH 7980 62% 75% 5905
OK 2300 55% 65% 1495
OR 2150 79% 86% 1849
PA 8316 63% 78% 6486
RI 670 62% 64% 429
SC 2257 64% 70% 1580
SD 491 67% 85% 417
TN 3336 65% 69% 2335
TX 12900 62% 68% 8772
UT 1170 69% 70% 819
VT 425 69% 72% 306
VA 4179 74% 80% 3343
WA 3480 75% 84% 2923
WV 1169 61% 76% 888
WI * * * 3038
WY 232+ 97% 95% 233
125167