I live in a Democratic stronghold and just spoke with a longtime friend from a Republican stronghold. She described the voters in her area as "holding their nose" and choosing between two unacceptable candidates.
I responded by describing the voters in my area as "holding their nose" to vote out someone who has caused divisiveness, inequality and hatred, and then voting in someone who has engaged in dialogue and wants equal opportunity for all Ameicans.
As I reflected on these differing motivations, that one side was offended by the choice of candidates [Bush v. Kerry] and the other side was offended by one candidate [Bush], I realized that I was changing my prediction of the election outcome. Republicans do not like the choices they face while Democrats have no qualms about the choices they face. This will effect the number of votes cast for each side.
Given that new understanding, I now do not expect the race to be close as has been predicted in the polls. I now expect, recognizing the power of the ground warfare, that the popular vote will have a 5% spread and the electoral vote at least a 30 vote spread, or at least a two critical state difference, so as to make unlikely any post election litigation that might change the result.
Unlike 2000, we want and need to valdiate the next President with both an electoral college victory and a popular vote victory.