I know, I know ... everyone on the planet has a prediction. But I figured I'd join in the fun. After all, America seems to have a surplus of professional predictors, so I figured I should add to the surplus now, and thus hasten the collapse of the entire industry.
Plus, there's a poll on what happens next.
Update: Fixed the number of Senators. Someone has suggested going after Mitt Romney or his successor, which would also be a good idea. Bill Owens' successor is also another good target.
Electoral Vote
Kerry 299
Bush 239
Kerry gains Ohio, Florida and New Hampshire, and loses New Mexico and Iowa. In my office pool, someone took this number, so I have 305-233, with Bill Clinton brining home Arkansas on 92% African American turnout and big margins in Little Rock.
Popular Vote
Kerry 50.3
Bush 48.7
This will be the first time since 1988 that a President wins a popular majority of the vote.
Senate
Dems 52
GOP 47
Independent 1 (Jeffords)
Most people seem to be predicting a 50-50 senate or maybe 51-49. I disagree. Democrats win Illinois (shocker!), Colorado, Oklahoma, Alaska, and Kentucky. They lose Georgia and Louisiana. Tennenbaum and Daschle pull out small miracles in their respective states.
House
GOP 221
Dems 213
Independent 1 (Sanders)
That's a net move of five or 6 seats, as the Dems pick up several seats in Pennsylvania and Illinois and Connecticut, plus assorted places like WA-8 and NC-11. Three of the five Texas Dems survive, with Stenholm (poor chuck! maybe we can make him ag secretary) and Sessions losing.
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All in all, Democrats will have lots to celebrate this year. So enjoy the day. Then, in the words of Howard Dean, "you get one month, then it's back to work". We must continue to apply pressure to crack the Republican party. We need to make sure the moderates purge the GOP of Flat-Earth society members in the leadership. Start thinking about how to win back Senate seats from people Rick Santorum, Bill Frist (who will retire to run for President), and George Allen. Turn Tom Delay into Newt Gingrich, only nastier (at least Newt had an intellect, cared about health care, and understoof foreign policy.