Skip to main content

So far, no big surprises. Like I wrote below, we need surprises to win the presidency.

Ohio is not out of contention, not as long as the urban areas (like Cuyahoga county) fail to report in. My brother, who has been crunching numbers all night (he likes math), makes a persuassive case that Bush will have a 20K lead in Ohio without absentees after all urban precincts report. The absentees would decide the race.

Florida won't be called tonight, not without so many absentee ballots outstanding (1 million). I don't feel good about Florida, but those absentees are mostly from Dem areas according to MSNBC. It's not over.

NH looks ready to go to Kerry. And early Nevada results look good. Same with the rest of the Gore states except for New Mexico.

If we hold the Gore states, which is quite a reasonable assumption, and flip Nevada and New Hampshire, then we have the dreaded 269-269 results.

But Ohio would be the big prize.

Update: Nevermind Florida. It's been called for Bush. Let's hope it's been called prematurely.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:05 PM PST.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  That's MORE LIKE IT (none)
    Welcome back to the fight.

    We're going to win.

  •  I hate to be a bummer (none)
    But CBS is calling Florida for the idiot boy from my home state, not that I am happy about it.
    •  CNN just did the same (none)
      12:11 EST

      There are two sorts of people in the world, those who are charming and those who are tedious.

      by crawford on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:10:50 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I zipped off a nasty e-mail to CNN (none)
        about 30 minutes ago and I took them to task for not defining their terms in regard to total votes vs. number of precincts.

        I am absolutely furious that the media have "called" this election without giving a real idea of what their numbers mean.  And now they have (in the last 3-5 minutes) said that they cannot call OH and brought up provisional ballots, as if they didn't know that this was going to be a factor.  Stupid as!&@*es.

        I am trying so hard not to have a serious meltdown.  Both my son and I are eligible for the military and/or skills draft.  He's just turned 18 (we voted together today) and I am a 40 year old nurse.  

    •  CBS can do whatever the hell it wants. (4.00)
      The fact is, it's not over 'til it's over.  

      We all have our habits built up from elections in the past.  We expect to see all the states turn one color or another by the end of the evening, and then to hear a victory speech and a concession speech before the next morning.  

      It's a different world now.  We just have to give up our attachments to instant gratification, and not get too depressed if we don't have a clear answer.  Things are still looking reasonably good for our side.  

    •  NPR too (none)
      NPR called FL for bush immediately after reporting that there are still people voting in miami-dade and hence no results for that county have been reported.  it's only the biggest county in the state, and heavily dem.


      courage, faith and truth my brothers and sisters

      by zeke L on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:16:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Early Votes? (none)
      Does the FL total include the early votes, or are all early votes counted as absentee? I've been listening to the networks all night and it either hasn't come up or I've missed it flipping channels.
    •  Yes, with 1,000,000 absentee ballots (none)
      still yet to be counted. As of now, Bush's lead is c. 320,000, so a lot depends on how the absentees vote.

      "You can't talk to the ignorant about lies, since they have no criteria." --Ezra Pound

      by machopicasso on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:17:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Provisional Ballots (none)
    There are alot of provisional ballots floating around out there. ALOT. Florida and Ohio are up for grabs.
  •  What about Maine? (none)
    Did Kerry win the 4th electoral vote or is that one still up for grabs?  
  •  happy thoughts (none)
    You know what would be great? If the Networks screw up again with Florida and the state goes Kerry. Probably won't happen, but I need to think happy thoughts.
  •  they did it again (none)
    calling fla was a big mistake.

    "..The question was, who was going to attack us, when and where, and with what." ..."now, watch this drive."

    by x on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:04:49 PM PST

  •  Florida's been called... (none)
    by all networks and the AP.

    If there really are 1 million absentee ballots left, then this is a huge mistake.  I have only become more and more confused as the night has gone on.

  •  Umm (none)
    Florida just got called.

    Nice try.

    "We're makin' progress. It's hard work. We're workin' hard on freedom. And liberty. Hard work. ... Hard work. . . . um . . . is the light on yet?"

    by DrFrankLives on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:04:51 PM PST

  •  yeah (none)
    I agree lets keep a little optimism here.  Thanks for bouncing back kos
  •  AP called Florida for Bush :( (none)
    Come on Ohio!!
  •  GOP Voter Suppression (none)
    Here's what Laura Rozen sez:

    [quote]ABC calls Florida for Bush.

    As of 11:30pm, Nick Confessore is hearing:

    that John Kerry has run up huge numbers in Ohio that are not yet reflected in the count -- and that's why the Republicans are engaging in scorched-earth challenges at the eleventh hour. Florida looks worse for Kerry, but as far as I can tell the South Florida numbers are not reflected in the totals we're seeing on TV. Given early info on George W. Bush's poor returns among Hispanics, that might be crucial. We'll see.

    Keep in mind, apropos of my earlier post, that the totals you see on TV do not include provisional votes -- and we don't know how many Democratic votes have been forced into the provisional rolls, as per the GOP strategy. Stay tuned[/quote]

    The SCLM isn't covering this.


    Email every media outlet! You're in front of your computer, use it to do something!

  •  Good Call (none)
    I'd also like to point out that CNN's dreadful "X% OF PRINCINCTS REPORTING" are completely ignoring mail-ins, which are going to be critical this year.

    Anyone else getting the feeling that Ohio's being kept out of contention by GOP design, via lawsuits?

    -Fe Wm.

  •  Kos, why do you think (none)
    winning Ohio and holding the Gore 2000 states would be such a surprise?

    Got a gun, fact I got two. That's OK man, cause I love God -- Pearl Jam

    by Muboshgu on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:05:31 PM PST

  •  Kos, (none)
    You the man, no matter what happens.  It's a bit late, but "thanks".

    Visit the Diary of the Lying Socialist Weasels, for commentary from the Original Progressive Web Warriors!

    by Jonathan on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:05:37 PM PST

  •  K - B gap narrowing by about 30,000 (none)
    in OH at 74% (CNN).
  •  CNN and Floride (none)
    CNN has Florida as projected... not calling it.  just projecting it.  

    The early voting was counted, but the absentee wasn't, is that right?

  •  MSNBC called Oregon for Kerry (none)
    their EV count now stands at Kerry 206 / Bush 207
  •  wow (none)
    this shit is looking so rigged right about now.
    i know two people in OH who were forced to vote by provisional ballot when their names were not found on the voter rolls today, even though they had voter registration cards.
    they were both of the youth demographic that supposedly didn't show up today.  what a crock.
    •  Counting early votes and absentees. (none)
      Didn't the FLA Attorney-General hold a press conference at about 7pm EST saying that because of the huge numbers of absentee and other ballots,plus late voting, these would eb counted in the morning and so no FLA result would be available 'on the night'?


  •  Absentee and early ballots (none)
    I am hearing reports of up to 1.5 million absentee ballots from FL that won't be counted for a few days, but I haven't seen a single news organization report on them.  Any links, anything?  I'm stuck watching CNN all night and I haven't heard a word.
    •  The media blows (none)
      They are talking like there aren't tons of outstanding ballots in these states.  Why won't they consider the uncounted votes?

      Got a gun, fact I got two. That's OK man, cause I love God -- Pearl Jam

      by Muboshgu on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:14:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I am honestly feeling that. (none)
    But about Florida: I know it's really bad that I don't know, but when are the early voting ballots being counted?

    "Today there is no substantial challenge to American ideals. The question is this: Where, with all our wealth and capabilities, do we lead mankind?" Gen. Clark

    by theprogressivemiddle on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:06:13 PM PST

  •  florida (none)
    how the fuck can they call florida with 1 million absentee's outstanding...mostly from dem areas?

    I might be Cheney'd up, but I'm not that Georgie!

    by circuithead on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:06:15 PM PST

    •  Here's the problem (none)
      Say Bush is up by 300,000 with 1,000,000 absentee ballots left to count.

      For Kerry to gain 300,000 back, he would have to win those absentees 650,000 to 350,000. Tall order.

      "Animals are my friends--and I don't eat my friends." (G.B. Shaw) Click to read the 'Union'

      by Hudson on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:12:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Is early voting (none)
        considered at all in these projections?

        Got a gun, fact I got two. That's OK man, cause I love God -- Pearl Jam

        by Muboshgu on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:15:56 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes and no (none)
          My understanding is that the early voting counts are added in when the county reports the precinct. They aren't added into the totals before then.

          Sign of the endtimes #532341: I agree with Pat Buchanan about something (Iraq)

          by badtux on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 10:01:54 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Not Just a Tall Order (none)
        That, quite frankly, is a pipedream. It's Ohio, or keep NM and take NV and Colorado, which still has quite a bit of Denver's vote to count.

        government of the people, by the people, and for the people shall not perish from the's just on hiatus for a while

        by IronyAbounds on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:17:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh Great (none)
          MSNBC just called Colorado for Bush. Sigh, people are really stupid.

          government of the people, by the people, and for the people shall not perish from the's just on hiatus for a while

          by IronyAbounds on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:18:35 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yep, work the math... (none)
            even though Boulder hasn't reported, that plus the few remaining Denver precincts only pick up 70,000 votes for Kerry, and Kerry needs to pick up 100,000 votes.

            Sign of the endtimes #532341: I agree with Pat Buchanan about something (Iraq)

            by badtux on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 10:04:10 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Keep Hope (sob) Alive! (none)

    Hey Crawford! You're about to get your idiot back!

    by jazzmaniac on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:06:24 PM PST

  •  thump,thump (none)
    my heart is pounding
  •  Fat lady hasn't warmed up yet... (none)
    until the, let's keep the faith!

    "Quit covering up your lies with half-truths and gorilla dust!" - Bill McNeil (Phil as Bill)

    by The Free Man on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:06:44 PM PST

  •  Ohio is coming home baby (none)
    The numbers are just beginning to tighten up.

    Watch and learn.

    "The identity of the loser is perfectly clear. It is the Nation's confidence in the judge as an impartial guardian of the rule of law." Bush v. Gore

    by DeanorBust on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:06:52 PM PST

  •  I don't feel good about FL (none)
    But I think Kos' brother is off about OH. I think we'll be able to go to sleep tonight knowing that Cuyahoga County gave Kerry the presidency (unless OH, MI, WI & IA are all so close that the GOP can tie it up in the courts).

    "The revolution starts now / When you rise above your fear / And when you tear the walls around you down" - Steve Earle

    by pHunbalanced on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:06:55 PM PST

  •  Ohio (none)
    We need to get organized on Ohio - I'm reading reports of stall tactics by Republicans to keep people who were on line and have a legal right to vote from doing so!  Now is not the time for any doubts - Ohio will decide this election!
  •  Trying to stay positive (none)
    But as the time passes it is getting harder and harder ... was feeling really good earlier, but this is pretty sobering.

    It's all going to come down to OH, I agree, and OH is not looking good.

  •  Florida has been called.... (none)
    for Bush by ABC, CBS, Fox, and PBS.

    And here's why:

    Currently Bush has 3.6 million votes in FL.  Kerry has 3.3 million.  Suppose you have 1 million early/absentee votes in Florida that go Kerry 55-45.  That leaves Bush with 4.05 million votes and Kerry with 3.85 million.  

    In order to win, Kerry would have to prove, in Jeb Bush's courts, that at least 20,000 of his votes (net) weren't counted.

  •  Any answer on whether they have counted the (none)
    early votes?

    I assume they have in Broward since no one is talking about it.

    "And they call reading a sin, and writing a crime. They will never forgive us for this Somewhere Else." Thomas Bernhard

    by upstate NY on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:07:19 PM PST

  •  heeheehee (none)
    screw florida...

    don't need it :)

    ohio is ours!

    I might be Cheney'd up, but I'm not that Georgie!

    by circuithead on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:07:32 PM PST

  •  help me I can't watch the TV (none)
    My girlfriend is ill and sleeping and I can't watch the TV-- are people talking about the uncounted provisional + absentee ballots??
  •  Absentee ballots in Ohio (none)
    Does anyone know how many absentee ballots in Ohio need to be counted?  And, if so, any info on whether lean democratic?

    I'm so tense!

  •  Maine (none)
    CNN calls all four of Maine votes (they were holding out on 1) and they called Oregon.

    expected, but encouraging.

  •  Kate Smith was from PA and she's warmin' up (none)
    Faith-based. Election. Results.
  •  Kos... (none)
    just out of curiousity, what kinda traffic are you getting now?

    I see the sitemeter link is gone... are you past the point where they can keep count?

  •  instead of mopping... (none)
    we should be drilling msnbc/cnn/etc. about the uncounted ballots! If they haven't been mentioned all night, how can they be sure Bush is going to win?

    To be great is to be misunderstood

    by LordFairfax on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:08:19 PM PST

  •  KPFA liberal radio from Berkely (none)
    has NOT called the election for Bush, not have they thrown in the towel as previously reported.

    Don't give up!!!!!!

  •  CNN just called FL for bush (none)
    what is the story with the early ballots?

    and the absentees?

    •  To win Florida given the current ... (none)
      ...margin, we would need 65% of the absentees and early votes. If all those votes came from Broward, I'd be willing to say we can still do it, but they don't. Florida is lost.

      Don't let the sound of your own wheels drive you crazy.

      by Meteor Blades on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:12:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ohio Crunch (none)
    I was looking at Ohio numbers, too...  Kerry should pick up a net of at least 40K on Cuyahoga county alone.  But Bush will probably come out slightly ahead on the overall count, and we just have to see how the other ballots go.  Ohio is going to be damn close.  

    I'm still in shock over Florida, though.  What the hell happened there?  

    "Keep watch over absent meaning." --Maurice Blanchot

    by Fisher on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:08:26 PM PST

  •  Here's the way it looks (none)
    If we start with Zogby's numbers:

    Bush           Kerry
    213            311
    +27            -27  Florida

    240            284
    + 9                 Colorado

    249            284
    +20            -20  Ohio

    269            264
     +5             -5  New Mexico

    274            269  Total

    That's why kos is pessimistic.

    •  But ... (none)
      we haven't lost NM or CO or OH yet.  Where are you getting these numbers?

      I swear, don't listen to cable news or local channels.  Stick with PBS or CSPAN.

      •  CO is gone (none)
        Most of Boulder and Denver are already counted and Bush has a significant lead.  That one I am pretty confident about.  NM is closer but with 71% counted, Bush is up 51%.  But even if NM doesn't go to Bush, the situation is grim without OH.
        •  Where are you getting this? (none)
          Where are you getting this "most of Boulder County is counted" stuff from?

          I tell you, I just physically got back from dropping off my precinct's ballots at the County Clerk's. They are nowhere near done. Local news is quoting elections officials predicting that we won't see Boulder County's true results until tomorrow afternoon!

          We hand-feed paper ballots to computer scanners. One by one. That takes a while. And it's reported that we're shaping up to see 80% voter turnout in Boulder County. 80%! Of a primarily Democratic/progressive county!

          Screw CNN and their early projections! That's what I say!

    •  impossible? (none)
      274 to 269 is not mathmatically possible.

      I believe that 538 is the total number of electors.

      269 to 269 is possible if Bush wins OH and Kerry wins NV.

  •  CNN calls Florida (none)
    for Bush.   Ohio still a chance to win it.  

    I blog here (sports/pop culture) because man cannot live on politics alone!

    by jdavidson2 on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:09:05 PM PST

  •  and (none)
    welcome to the Lawsuits!!

    At least my county is all in and Kerry won it big.  Too bad it's small.

    And the Trumbull county results!! way to go Kerry!!

    Oh, it's Ohio

  •  Ohio (none)
    when do we think we're going to KNOW about Ohio? this is killing me.
  •  absentees counted? (none)
    If you look at (for instance) the Dade COunty Elections web site you see that they report absentee districts in their totals.

    Right now it shows:

    Precincts in Race: (Geographic) 749 (Absentee) 107 = 856 Precincts Registered Voters:  1,041,918
    Precincts Counted: (Geographic) 739 (Absentee) 100 = 839 Precincts Ballots Cast:  706,100

    Looks like they've counted the absentee ballots to me but I'm not a pro....

  •  Mars, bitches... (none)
    Welcome back!

    This shit is far from over.

    Conservatives worship dead liberals

    by Tripleg on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:13:06 PM PST

  •  I did a little numbers crunching myself (none)
    When Bush was up by about 3.5% in Ohio, I looked at counties who went big to bush in 2000, and looked at the counties who went big to Gore.  This was when over 7,500 of the 11447 precincts were in.

    1,234 precincts that are located in Bush counties were not counted at the time I crunched these numbers
    1,595 precincts that are located in Gore counties were not counted.

    Now, I didn't really take into effect the margin of victory in each county, and I didn't count the counties that could go either way right now.  So take this for what its worth, but Ohio looks pretty good right now, and it should be extremely close.

  •  Hrm (none)
    CBS just called Washington for Bush as per our local affiliate...Im thinking she misspoke.
  •  They called Florida a while ago (none)
    Bush by like 12% w/ 96% repoorting
  •  Look, let's face it, this country is fucked (2.12)
    Rather than winning back the Senate, we're going to end up being set back a few seats.  Rather than winning the House or making up ground, we'll be lucky not to end up set back there as well.  

    This country is a fucking piece of shit.  The American public obviously supports Bush's grandiose foreign policy.  I cringe at the thought of how many more 9/11s we're going to suffer with this idiot at the helm.  

    In Britain they admit to having royalty. In the United States we pretend we don't have any, and then we elect them president.

    by Asak on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:14:42 PM PST

    •  If this weren't election night ... (none)
      ...I would zero you for saying:

      This country is a fucking piece of shit.

      Don't let the sound of your own wheels drive you crazy.

      by Meteor Blades on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:23:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'll do it for you.... (none)

        Aristocracy may appear permanent and timeless, but in reality conservatism must be reinvented in every generation.

        by silentsprawl on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:25:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  asdf (none)
        ...I don't have anything to say about this particular point, but I sure hope someone has something up there sleeve somewhere...this is SO #$%$-ed at this point. Other than disagree with people's negative views, what hope can anyone offer right now...

        "All intelligent people in this country will vote for you,"
        "That's not good enough. I need a majority" - Adlai Stevenson

        by cgilbert01 on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:38:59 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Uh, okay then ... (none)
      ... maybe this will help:

    •  The good news is that (none)
      more updated analysis of OBL's video indicates that he actually said he would not attack blue states (not kidding). So justice, in a twisted way, may be done.
    •  What happened to the youth vote? (none)
      I don't understand. Why didn't the youth vote? Does anyone have any idea?

      We have a lot of work ahead of us.


    •  Regardless of how Ohio turns out, I tend to agree. (none)
      How can 50% of the people in this country support George Bush and Delay's Congress?   The likely explanation is that America is skewing towards facism.

      The Europeans are going to hate us.  Assuming Divine Intervention doesn't manifest a Kerry victoy, the President, regardless of who's warming the chair, is no longer the leader of the free world.

      thanks republicans.

      •  Hate you? (none)
        Get it straight - Europeans aren't going to hate Americans as a people, just wear a Kerry sticker when you go travelling (just kidding). They are going to hate the thought of another 4 years of Bush Neo-Fascism and what he will do to America. Their other concern will be how the rest of the world will be dragged down by him and his gang.
        If OBL's stated ambition was to make America bankrupt, if it isn't already, GWB will sure finish it for him over the next 4 years.
        I heard CNN say the exit polls indicate that "moral values" is one of the key reasons Bush is doing so well. I can only ask "when has Bush ever displayed his moral values?"
        But then as we know:
        - moral considerations are subordinated to the holding and exercising of political power.-- Machiavelli - The Prince

        Go figure!

        Pray for a Kerry win or there will be tough times ahead.

        Since when has ignorance become a point of view - Dilbert

  •  Fuck... I am leaving this country..... (none)
    people will get what they deserved....
  •  nerves nerves nerves (none)
    The laptop is burning up.

    The television is blinking.

    The scotch is almost gone.

    The Pall Malls are running low.

    Goddamnit, Ohio, BRING US HOME.

  •  anyone else think that Karen Hughes... (none)
    looks like the chicken lady from Kids in the Hall?
  •  What's Going On With Lucas County In Ohio? (none)
    Is this a ballot screw-up? How does Cobb get 4685 in Lucas and almost no votes anywhere else in Ohio?

    Are those 4685 votes going to be the difference to Kerry?  Hope not but it's going to be a long night...

    Click here for Ohio results -

    and here for Oliver Willis' post (the Kerry numbers have been updated but the Cobb number is still weird) -

  •  Can we say at this point that (none)
    No matter what happens from here...

    I say Zogby AND Gallup need to have (what remains) of their credibility utterly and totally DESTROYED in the big post mortems on this election sure to follow.

    Polls are voodoo. Exit Polls are even damned worse. I will be haunted by Zogby's stupid little 311 stunt this morning/early afternoon for years even if I get the election results I want.

    Its 2004 now... Sept. 11th was in 2001... Mr. President, why is it that Osama Bin Ladin is still around to run Al Qaida and dole out videotapes?

    by LeftHandedMan on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:16:17 PM PST

  •  Karen Hughes is Eva Braun (none)
    I know of no scarier person in the entire Bush apparachik than Karen Hughes, with the possible exception of the incredibly smarmy and oily Tucker Eskew. I think he may have attempted to sell me a AMC Pacer in '75, but I fended him off.
  •  NV is still close (none)
    Don't fret.  Kerry will pull ahead in OH and it looks very promising, moreso that I originally thought, in NV.  He still needs the Upper Midwest, though, to pull it out.

    But I've got faith.  And six Ziegen Bocks in me right now.  I don't know how much more my heart can take.

  •  It's Over (1.00)
    All Networks are about to call Ohio for Bush.  They are waiting for the Cincinatti & Columbus Precincts to finalize.  Its over.  Bush for another term.
    •  Yep, Kerry hasn't closed the gap (none)
      And there just arent that many big D areas left to count.  Let me put it another way.  There aren't enough big D areas to overcome the deficit that we are facing right now.

      The number needs to come down quick if this is going to turn around.

      Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough. - FDR

      by kamosa on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:31:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  It aint over til the fat lady... (none)
    Earlier I posted I thought this baby was done. I went away, came back, checked the latest numbers AND THIS IS STILL ON BABY!

    Kerry's leading in Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hamshire and Maine. And he's only down 127,000 in Ohio with 2,931 precincts still to report.

    Man, I can't go to bed now. GO JOHN. I BELIEVE.

  •  They just said on CNN (none)
    that there are still people voting in Ohio?


    •  Hell ya (none)
      The precinct I was working at closed after 10pm...around 11 they were saying that some wouldn't close until MIDNIGHT.

      ...whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it...

      by megs on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:46:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  What frigg is up with NH (none)
    They're polls closes almost 5 hours ago, and no one will call it.


  •  FL? (none)
    Are there 1 million absentee/early ballots in FL?  Kerry has to carry those 650k-350k to make up the precinct vote.  Is that why everybody is calling it for Bush?

    Any theories on why the exit polling was off by so much?  In theory they only counted people exiting the polls -- how did they end up off by 8 points (+3/-5)?  Is there some sort of malfeasance going on or do the exit pollers still suck at it?

    •  Both (none)
      malfeasance and supreme suckiness happening.  I mean really!  How do the exit poll-ers know if the people they are questioning (that choose to answer) are being truthful?  There's no factual basis in the exit poll numbers in my view.

      Remember voodoo economics?  This is voodoo election reporting.    

  •  colorado.. (none)
    there are still a lot of votes out of boulder county... i am really shocked that msnbc is calling it for bush! :(  kerry will win 2 to 1 in that county...

    i'm crossing my fingers toward ohio.. otherwise.. it is looking a little less great than those darn exit polls had me thinking.  nevada plus new mexico plus new hampshire gives us a tie.. and a chance.. i think we really need to win the popular vote to have a persuasive case to the house of reps.  


    Bush must not be elected in '04!

    by esherard8 on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:19:53 PM PST

  •  Help me understand WTF happened in Virginia (none)
    Virginia is a red state and went red again today, so it's not like we lost something we were counting on.

    But here's what I don't understand: The voting results for Bush are way, way better than they should be. Over the last six months the polls have never given Bush more than a 5% lead here, and recently it's been like 2 or 3%.  But the VOTE trend is incredible:  with 88% of precincts reporting, Bush has a 10 point lead.  WTF?  Earlier tonight I was hoping that Northern VA results (D.C. suburbs) were just reporting last and would swing things, but it's getting late for that.  Can anyone explain?  

    •  WTF happened in Virginia (none)
      did they have an anti-gay marriage amendment on the ballot?
    •  dsdfad (none)
      a pox on all the chicken littles!

      ahem...regarding VA:

      the college towns are hopeful.  rural communities are 50/50, but i don't know...

      northern virginia (affectionately known as NOVA) is, being suburbs of D.C., well...conservative.  lots of ex-military retire in the area.  lots of government contract jobs.  lots o' yuppies, too.

      i was shocked that this was considered close at all.

    •  No Idea (none)
      I was out all day in Fairfax County.  It looked good from where I sat - and I suppose results will show Kerry going up slightly in Fairfax County, City, Alexandria and Arlington.

      Still, I suppose Virginia is mostly a big hillbilly state.  I guess us young progressives in the semi-urban areas can't outweigh the massive bubba presence.  Still - the numbers are galling.

      -Fe Wm.

  •  Hmm.. (none)
    How smart is the tin-foil hat theory on having everybody vote absentee looking right now?

    I mean, all things being equal (and they're not), a vote's a vote, but I certainly don't recall anyone giving any thought to the election night spin possibilities of massive early and absentee voting. Do you?

  •  Ohio Extrapolation (4.00)
    I have a script which multiplies the candidates' county vote totals by the same counties remaining percentage of precints.  Here're the results, and they aren't great:

    Projected Vote Totals:
    Kerry: 2146257.2434
    Bush.: 2335023.4691

    Adams KERRY=4189 BUSH=7480
    Allen KERRY=15822 BUSH=31629
    Ashland KERRY=7738.8119 BUSH=14421.79
    Ashtabula KERRY=23545 BUSH=20621
    Athens KERRY=14531.9076 BUSH=7955.9452
    Auglaize KERRY=3054.7872 BUSH=6695.424
    Belmont KERRY=15613.8246 BUSH=13828.4388
    Brown KERRY=7058 BUSH=12480
    Butler KERRY=52207.34 BUSH=101734.9776
    Carroll KERRY=6190 BUSH=7531
    Champaign KERRY=6752 BUSH=11432
    Clark KERRY=31195.44 BUSH=34062.57
    Clermont KERRY=14745.9195 BUSH=35400.573
    Clinton KERRY=3551.625 BUSH=7788
    Columbiana KERRY=22884 BUSH=25212
    Coshocton KERRY=4414.8648 BUSH=5232.0706
    Crawford KERRY=7626 BUSH=13667
    Cuyahoga KERRY=246947.712 BUSH=163820.888
    Darke KERRY=7663 BUSH=17869
    Defiance KERRY=5835.7923 BUSH=9947.4609
    Delaware KERRY=24870.239 BUSH=47019.3215
    Erie KERRY=20652 BUSH=18019
    Fairfield KERRY=23467.836 BUSH=40879.9188
    Fayette KERRY=4244 BUSH=7221
    Franklin KERRY=269249.4036 BUSH=236906.1402
    Fulton KERRY=8098 BUSH=13443
    Gallia KERRY=5188 BUSH=8320
    Geauga KERRY=19571 BUSH=29957
    Greene KERRY=26788.2682 BUSH=42245.3424
    Guernsey KERRY=7072 BUSH=9095
    Hamilton KERRY=123663.463 BUSH=128645.0308
    Hancock KERRY=9930 BUSH=24345
    Hardin KERRY=4449.0394 BUSH=7645.1952
    Harrison KERRY=3824 BUSH=4318
    Henry KERRY=5027 BUSH=9770
    Highland KERRY=4614.4488 BUSH=8657.172
    Hocking KERRY=5285.5 BUSH=5978.5
    Holmes KERRY=2622 BUSH=8299
    Huron KERRY=0 BUSH=0
    Jackson KERRY=0 BUSH=0
    Jefferson KERRY=16609.9323 BUSH=15384.5325
    Knox KERRY=8689.5 BUSH=16436.25
    Lake KERRY=57471 BUSH=60615
    Lawrence KERRY=9905.0328 BUSH=11876.0109
    Licking KERRY=27143.6715 BUSH=44348.065
    Logan KERRY=6644 BUSH=14084
    Lorain KERRY=73167.8415 BUSH=58818.682
    Lucas KERRY=48763.0376 BUSH=29393.65
    Madison KERRY=6085.0402 BUSH=10659.1839
    Mahoning KERRY=81389.943 BUSH=49452.8429
    Marion KERRY=11492 BUSH=16729
    Medina KERRY=30696.2611 BUSH=40942.0801
    Meigs KERRY=2116.8504 BUSH=2659.5072
    Mercer KERRY=4209.173 BUSH=11536.9286
    Miami KERRY=10724 BUSH=20807
    Monroe KERRY=4164 BUSH=3370
    Montgomery KERRY=136788.2208 BUSH=134490.7872
    Morgan KERRY=2810 BUSH=3695
    Morrow KERRY=5058.8112 BUSH=9124.7607
    Muskingum KERRY=16050 BUSH=21901
    Noble KERRY=2618 BUSH=3799
    Ottawa KERRY=10915 BUSH=11820
    Paulding KERRY=3023.9244 BUSH=4966.5425
    Perry KERRY=7205 BUSH=7767
    Pickaway KERRY=8388 BUSH=13864
    Pike KERRY=4734.5483 BUSH=5362.5326
    Portage KERRY=37833.5535 BUSH=33350.9742
    Preble KERRY=7165 BUSH=13512
    Putnam KERRY=4348 BUSH=14196
    Richland KERRY=24056 BUSH=36253
    Ross KERRY=13701 BUSH=16940
    Sandusky KERRY=13909 BUSH=17824
    Scioto KERRY=10817.9544 BUSH=11736.2364
    Seneca KERRY=10770 BUSH=15624
    Shelby KERRY=6337 BUSH=15825
    Stark KERRY=67471.5338 BUSH=63405.2485
    Summit KERRY=136940.304 BUSH=100559.0424
    Trumbull KERRY=65321 BUSH=40220
    Tuscarawas KERRY=0 BUSH=0
    Union KERRY=6546 BUSH=15593
    Van Wert KERRY=3600.09 BUSH=9787.3216
    Vinton KERRY=1624.5 BUSH=2002.5
    Warren KERRY=7426.3923 BUSH=17642.9007
    Washington KERRY=7493.7984 BUSH=10910.1952
    Wayne KERRY=19455 BUSH=31433
    Williams KERRY=5884.4448 BUSH=10573.2822
    Wood KERRY=26190.1612 BUSH=29755.9028
    Wyandot KERRY=2320.5 BUSH=4403.75

  •  NM is the backup plan (none)
    Monitor this link:

    Kerry is rapidly running out of options

  •  Here's how it's gonna go down v2 (none)
    According to CSPAN, the current situation is this:
    Bush   237
    Kerry  188
    Bush Wins:
    NV 5
    CO 9
    NM 5
    AK 3

    Kerry Wins:
    HI 4
    IO 7
    MIN 10
    WI 10
    MICH 17
    OH 20

    Total EV: Bush 259  Kerry 278

  •  Cleveland vote (none)
    I think this is why the Dems are hopefull in Ohio. These returns are from Cleveland (Cuyahoga Cnty):

    Vote for 1 (With 741 of 1458 precincts counted)

    GEORGE W. BUSH/DICK CHENEY  130157    

    JOHN F. KERRY/JOHN EDWARDS  224052    



    So Kerry is holding an ~ 90K lead in this one urban county with only 1/2 counted. I'm not sure why Judy Woodruff is saying much of the urban vote is counted. The statewide race is only ~ 120K Bush.

    I'd say the state is still very much in play. I haven't had time to look into Dayton and Cinci.

    •  Hamilton also out (none)
      Hamilton is also out. It's Cincinnati, which is generally more conservative than Cuyahoga, BUT thus far it is within a single percentage point either way, and I doubt the more populous districts within Cincinnati have been counted, yet.

      This is good for us.

  •  CNN = Evil (none)
    They are no better than F*x.  I was stuck watching them for the last couple of hours, and every last one of them except Carville makes you want to puke.
  •  Ok FL called on MSNBC for GWB... (none)
    and now only a few left.  Not happy.
  •  which numbers? (none)
    Dumb question this point in the evening are the networks using actual votes or still using a mix of projected numbers + real numbers?  
  •  OH (none)
    B - 51.41
    K - 48.09
     8751 of 11477 Precincts Reporting
  •  the tide is turning (none)
    McKinney wins back GA

    Score another one for truth to power.....

  •  how? (none)
    FL has 27 EV and OH has 20.  FL is needed.
  •  The answer is interviewer bias (none)
    and the general fact that we Democrats still want to win "nice".  Rove doesn't care about "nice", and the Republicans don't care about "nice".  The only way to beat these fucks is to start attacking them from the day they take office, and not let up until we carry their cold, dead political bodies into the crematorium.

    I pledge to you now.  The only good Republican is an unemployed (and indicted) Republican.  The only good outcome is one in which Republicans are bleeding and sodomized in prison.  

    Wouldn't it be great to have a President who did the right thing as the automatic choice instead of a grudging last resort?

    by DemInTampa on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:25:48 PM PST

  •  Please, please, please (none)
    WTF??????  Who the hell is voting for Bush????  Why can't we just WIN????  I was feeling so good earlier....voter turnout was high......Kerry was smiling and working hard.  Now fucking Bush has made his unprecidented appearance and Rove is flashing victory signs.  WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED?????
    •  They stole Ohio (none)
      Plain and simple.  The bad guys used thugs and lawyers to suppress turnout in Dem areas in Ohio, that will more than account for the final margin.  

      As usual, the Dems played tiddlywinks like a bunch of f***ing wussy goody two shoes while the Repubs were playing rugby and wielding long knives.

      I am Victorian!

      by MJB on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:31:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  people are stupid (none)
      religious nuts voted and our people didnt.


      "We're makin' progress. It's hard work. We're workin' hard on freedom. And liberty. Hard work. ... Hard work. . . . um . . . is the light on yet?"

      by DrFrankLives on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:32:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Hawaii absentees - Kerry 55% (none)
    I think this may be just the absentee ballots with no actual precincts reporting, because it says "0 of 353", but hopefully this is a good indication of things to come here in Hawaii:

    (D) KERRY, John F. For PRESIDENT 69,661 54.8%
    (R) BUSH, George W. For PRESIDENT 55,445 43.6%

    Follow the returns here.

    From another country under U.S. military occupation ... FREE HAWAII!

    by scottmaui on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:27:45 PM PST

    just to count. Kerry needs +150K votes or more- or 450K uncounted.  There are probably only about 250K uncounted at best.  JFK will be 50K or so short.

    If he picked Geppy instead of Edwards, he would have won MO- kind of sad hindsight now.    

    •  Step away from the crack pipe (none)
      If he'd picked Gephardt, we'd all be in bed by now cuz Bush would have won a bunch of other states.

      "Isn't life disappointing?" "Yes it is."

      by ubarquat on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:31:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Sorry, no way Gephardt turns MO blue (none)
      I'm from MO and Gephardt's district is already solid blue. The red parts don't like Gephardt any more than Edwards. Probably less since they know Gephardt better. So I don't see Gephardt helping to overcome the MO deficit.

      The problem is moral values plus terrorism. That combo kills the Dems in rural and strongly religious areas [like SW MO (Springfield/Branson)].

  •  Without Ohio (none)
    Can Kerry still carry the win?

    Is there such a scenario?

  •  Florida (none)
    Miami Dade is not all in.  County Website shows 839 of 856 precincts counted, and that does not include all absentee "precincts" (N101-107 aren;t shown on the counted list).
    There are still a million absentee ballots to be counted. From the view on the ground, the early voting and the exit polls, there is no way we lose Florida unless the machines were rigged and our absentee ballots weren't counted. This is not over.
  •  I think it's over (none)
    I just looked at the precincts still out in Cuyahoga and unless there are still big numbers out in Franklin and around Toldeo, there are not enough votes left to have Kerry ahead

    I don't think we are going to win a battle on provisional ballots.

    We have lost Colorado.

    Even were we to win both NV and NM that only gets us to 269, assuming we win all 4 votes in ME, which may not happen.

    Granted, we have one elector in WV who will not voe for Bush, but unless we are at 270, we cannot win, and we can no longer get there without Ohio.

    And that presumes we hold WI --  I have not seen enough data from various counties to know for sure.

    Unless FL does not include early voting (and at this point I think id does -- I can't believe so many networks would be wrong), the absentees are NOT goingg to break heavily for Kerry.

    nethinks the difference was the anti-gay iniatives and amendments   -- that may be where some of the additional massive turnout came from, that clearly will have flipped races in several states --  KY Senate, probably the presidential in Ohio.  

    BTW  it is still possible Bush will lose the national ppular vote, and maybe even money that even if he wins a plurality he will fail to get a majority  --  the national figurs still lack most of Oregon, Wa and CA.

    I've got to teach tomorrow, so I am going to go to bed soon.   Depressed, sad, sorry for the future of this nation.

    Those that can, do. Those that can do more, TEACH!

    by teacherken on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:28:56 PM PST

  •  How can they call Florida (none)
    when so many of the counties are showing Kerry winning and they've called them for Bush??

    This is CNN's county list for Florida.

    I just don't get it! Major counties are showing Kerry leads. Can someone shed some light on this?

    Bad officials are elected by good citizens who do not vote - George Jean Nathan

    by awnm on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:29:07 PM PST

  •  Ohio (none)
    79% of the vote is in and we're behind by 130,000. It will be tough.

    Canada - where a pack of smokes is ten bucks and a heart transplant is free.

    by dpc on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:29:09 PM PST

  •  OH now (none)
    B - 51.24
    K - 48.26
    9015 of 11477 Precincts Reporting
  •  it's over... (none)
    Cuyahoga County in Ohio & Palm Beach in Florida had to deliver the presidency to Kerry.

    Palm Beach didn't deliver, and Cuyahoga didn't enough: the two states have shown a bush lead of 330,000 in Florida and 125,000 in Ohio, and they aren't BUDGING.

    IT'S ALL OVER...

    And to top it off, it seems as if the GOP won every single open Senate seat in the South. Maybe we can keep Daschle as a consolation prize, but even then...

  •  I like to crunch numbers too (none)
    I wrote a program to extrapolate the county by county vote reports from Ohio, and I get
    Bush: 2,881,348; 50.8%
    Kerry: 2,764,435; 48.7%
    Diferrence: 116,913

    Three counties with no report: Jackson, Huron, Tiscarawas

    When new numbers, will repost new number.
  •  Ohio is it... (none)
    without it, we can't win.  Bush has Alaska and he's up 246 to 207... we need ohio.
  •  Ohio (none)
    If we assume the precinct counts equal vote counts, there are still 150,000 votes in Cuyahoga county, and 45,000 in Franklin county.  Any chance we get 80% of the remaining votes in these two counties - this would erase the current deficit.
  •  It's Over (none)
    Bush is up by 120k votes in Ohio.  In Cuyahoga county Kerry is up 150k but with 76% of the the precincts already reporting.  This means he'd have to get a 120k advantage in just the remaing 24%.  
  •  Ohio getting closer.... (none)
    Kerry down by 120,000 now, with 79% reported, Kerry has been closing the gap steadily for a while now.  Will it be enough?  Christ, my stomach hurts....
  •  Let's hope.. (none)
    We can take Ohio. If not, we could still bring it in with the smaller states. It looks like this thing is going to get litigated and recounted some!
  •  HOW? (none)
    Can they project FL for Bush if the 1.5 M votes have yet to be counted?  

    What about the early OH votes?

  •  40k for GWB in OH (none)
    I like math too, and with all due respect to your brother, I crunch out a 40k lead for GWB in OH, prior to counting absentees, provisionals, and such.

    I'm afraid the best we can hope for right now is a dirty, ugly post-election ground battle in OH.

  •  Fox calls NH for Kerry (none)
  •  ohio (none)
    what a nightmare.  what a nightmare.
  •  Start the P.R. Campaign now (none)
    My suggestion is the blogsphere start to  write Letters to the Editor RIGHT NOW demanding that in the event of a 269-269 split the House of Representatives support the candidate who wins the popular vote.

    It's crucially important that we win the public relations battle that will ensue as the many close states begin to count, recount and certify their votes.

    "If they don't do their duty by the Democratic Party, they are the most ungrateful people in the world!" -Harry Truman

    by DWCG on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:36:31 PM PST

  •  Ohio closing still (none)
    Gonna be close in Ohio.  Ugh.
  •  Holding Out for Ohio (none)
    I believe, I believe, I believe
  •  That's it--it's over (4.00)
    I've been crunching numbers on Cuyahoga forever tonight and other counties (and precincts) yet to report. Unless those counties go disproportionately higher for Kerry than the counties that have already reported by a margin of +4.5%, Kerry can't do it.

    It's done. Mathematically, we're hosed. Bush for four more years. Certainly one, likely two, possibly three Supreme Court appointments. But, on the flip side, I don't have to listen to Freepers complain about how "Kerry can't get Iraq cleaned up, and the problems there are now all his fault."

    Part of me--a very cynical part, says, "fine. You clean up your room, you messed it up. You see how well you do getting our boys back home. You take care of the deficit, because you can't, not with your plan. Let's see how you answer to the shit Kerry was going to have to deal with. You have all of Congress, the White House, and the Courts. So go ahead, big guy, fix it. Fix it all. The American people want 'determination' and 'strength'? Fine. Let's see how much you fucking dazzle them. Be my guest.

    And when Ohio loses more jobs, or when Florida's seniors start having to make even harder choices about whether to get food or health care, and when 18 - 29 year olds find that the best jobs they can get are low wage, then I say a pox on all of your houses. Fuck Ohio, fuck Florida, fuck 'invigorated young voters' who sat home, and fuck you, too. In four years--hell, probably much less--they will all regret their choice.

    I'm done, I'm fed up."
    •  The fucking problem is (none)
      that it won't be them to clean up the mess.
    •  I am with you on it (none)
      they get what they want...
      •  My 3 new causes (none)
        1. The draft. We need to support our president as he strengthens America.

        2. War on Iran and Syria. We need to fight them there, so we don't have to fight them here.

        3. Death penalty for women who have abortions. Murder is murder.

        America: to quote an old Toyota commercial, you asked for it, you got it.
        •  Cross-posted Redux (none)
          for your viewing pleasure:

          Already got you covered... (none / 1)

          on this front.

          I'm a newly minted local board member of the SSS.

          Already was asked recently to do a survey of a local post office (USPS), to ensure their registration materials and other ephemera are well-stocked and prominently displayed.

          So unless the paypackets/bennies (your tax dollars at work) somehow increase substantially for the US Army/USAR/National Guard, military altruism shoots through the roof, or the long-promised FTD deliveries from grateful Iraqis start to pile up on the perimeter of the Green Zone, the greater the chance yours truly will have of telling young 20-year-old "red state" XBox players they have the involuntary mandate to play Full Spectrum Warrior IRL.

          Reporting for duty, President Bush!

          "But then I viddied that thinking is for the gloopy ones and the oomny ones use, like, inspiration and what Bog sends." -- Alex de Large

          by rgilly on Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 01:20:21 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Rebluc v. Empire (none)
      Empire won...all hail Ceasar. I'll star by grabbing my ankles....
    •  Why do you say this? (none)
      Lars wrote (and I quote):

      "Unless those counties go disproportionately higher for Kerry than the counties that have already reported by a margin of +4.5%, Kerry can't do it."

      I have no trouble believing this; Cuyahoga County is a lot more than 4.5% pro-Kerry than the rest of the state.

      And many polling places with high D turnout have only recently closed.

      I do not see your reason for despair.  It is not at all hard to bleive that the uncounted votes are +4.5% more Democratic.  Not hard at all.

  •  Uh-oh (none)
    Iowa and Wisconsin are looking awfully tight, too.  Oy.
  •  Hate Amendments (none)
    have won big time tonight.  Disgusting and discouraging.
    The African-American civil rights battle took a long, long time.
    Looks like the battle for gay civil rights will be a long one too.

    Hey Crawford! You're about to get your idiot back!

    by jazzmaniac on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:39:29 PM PST

    •  yeah (none)
      and it really is more than a little ironic that many black voters are against gay marriage and making an issue of it. Perhaps more of them should return to their native religions and finally realize how they got that Christian "religion."

      A free society is a place where it's safe to be unpopular. -Adlai Stevenson.

      by barb in albq on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:46:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  WTF are you talking about? (none)
        Black people voted for Kerry at about 90%.  The reality is that there are a lot of selfish and racist white homophobes in America who voted for Bush.

        "The artist must elect to fight for freedom or slavery. I have made my choice. I had no alternative." Paul Robeson

        by sukeyna on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 10:04:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yep... (none)
's the white homophobes.  African-Americans haven't fallen for that particular GOP trick pony.  Lookit DC.  God, I love those results.  THAT is my damn country.  Bush can't make double digits.
        •  I have (none)
          heard alot about the growing conservative social mores of racial minorities due to their connection to certain sects of Christianity. Many of these are against gay marriage for example. I understand it's a growing trend.

          A free society is a place where it's safe to be unpopular. -Adlai Stevenson.

          by barb in albq on Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 01:06:06 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Yup. And... (none)
      ...hate amendmants won Bush this election.  On the one hand - I'm a little disappointed in the left (honestly - I'm sorry) for giving the GOP this issue just before this critical election.  On the other hand, I am so disgusted that substantial numbers of self-righteous Christians have not only decided to vote for the hate amendmants, but have ignored, ah, every other damn issue and turned out for the president.  I am disgusted that the right wing has successfully explointed this issue, and - I have always been a split the ticket voters - I will never vote for any GOP candidate for so much as poop-scooper-upper until the GOP repudiates hate as an electoral weapon.  

      I am through making excuses for the Christian right.  It's time for real Christians to stand up to the right wing.  I've been up for hours and hours and hours today  and now I'm quite drunk, but...goddamnit.  I'm buying a "Hate is Not a Family Value" bumper sticker tonight and slapping it on my car near about as soon as I get it.

  •  We lost. (none)
    I am fucking devestated.  Un-fucking-believable.

    San Diego Steve WE ARE Winning!

    by SanDiegoSteve on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:39:38 PM PST

  •  CNN is just itching... (none) give Ohio to Bush. It's not looking good folks. Unless the absentee and provisionals are OVERWHELMING for's lost.
  •  OHIO - Franklin County/Columbus (4.00)
    Look, the heavily democratic precincts in OH are not counted yet. I was in Franklin County (Columbus) at a phone bank and then went to a local polling place to check out the scene. People were reporting RECORD turnout in these polling places, up to 5 hours waiting time. And these voters were beyond determined to cast their votes. Stay optimistic about Ohio. And remember, our man is a strong closer. And some people are STILL waiting to cast their votes here!

    I went back to Ohio...

    by hyperstation on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:41:01 PM PST

  •  can AP rig the election? (none)
    Can the AP be trusted? I'm a first time poster and this may all be part of a nutty conspiracy theory but, check this link

    The AP is batting for a Bush presidency.

    In Online Journal, Stephen Crockett and Al Lawrence, the hosts of Democratic Talk Radio, wrote, "...the Associated Press ran a story that was widely published in newspapers and on the Internet, headlined "Bush Leads Kerry In Electoral Votes," that could have been written by the Bush campaign. The assignment of states to candidates, the headline and the conclusions were all simply wrong. The Associated Press should print a retraction and work to see that it is widely published."

    And on WBAY TV in Green Bay, Wisconsin ran an AP article reporting that Bush has won the election, weeks before the election is to take place.  The AP reported, "At this hour, President Bush has won re-election as president by a 47 percent to 43 percent margin in the popular vote nationwide. Ralph Nader has 1 percent of the vote nationwide. That's with 51 percent of the precincts reporting."  According to reports, the AP is now saying the article was a "test article," a never-heard-before journalistic practice.

    Who is the AP?  The Associated Press was founded in 1848.  It is a not-for-profit news cooperative, some would say `monopoly', that rakes in about $500 million dollars a year.  The AP is owned by its 1,500 U.S. daily newspaper members.  Their board of directors is elected by voting `bonds'.  However, it is not clear who controls the bonds.  AP spokespeople would not give out information on who sits on their board, however AP leadership appears quite conservative.

    Burl Osborne, chairman of the AP board of directors, is also publisher emeritus of the conservative The Dallas Morning News, a newspaper that endorsed George W. Bush in the last election.  Kathleen Carroll, senior vice president and executive editor of AP, was a reporter at The Dallas Morning News before joining AP. Carroll is also on the Associated Press Managing Editors (APME)'s 7-member executive committee.  The APME "works in partnership with AP to improve the wire service's performance," according to their website. APME vice president, Deanna Sands, is managing editor of the ultra conservative Omaha World Herald newspaper, whose parent company owns the largest voting machine company in the nation, Election Systems and Software (ES&S).

  •  Bad (none)
    I think we not only lost, we got a drubbing.  Looks, as I write, that Daschle has lost too -- a few more Indian reservation votes still to be counted but probably not enough to make a difference.
  •  Fox Gives Bush Ohio (none)
    It's over folks.  Accept it and work constructively toward 2006 and 2008.

    government of the people, by the people, and for the people shall not perish from the's just on hiatus for a while

    by IronyAbounds on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:42:21 PM PST

    •  NO IT'S NOT! (none)

      CALL FOX NEWS NOW: 212.301.3000


      "If they don't do their duty by the Democratic Party, they are the most ungrateful people in the world!" -Harry Truman

      by DWCG on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:46:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Fox News is wrong (none)
      Cuyahoga is at 63% with a 6-4 advantage to Kerry on 419,280. That means 200,000+ ballots are still out. The last ballots counted will be the poorest areas of Cleveland, guaranteed. I don't see the loss, yet.
    •  partisan media suck (none)
      why does fox call all the bush states first?  argh.

      i think the hate amendments are what killed us... turned out the vote in ohio just enough to beat us maybe.  it ain't over yet though!


      Bush must not be elected in '04!

      by esherard8 on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:55:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Latest on Juan Cole (none)
    CBS is projecting Washington, Oregon and California all for Kerry, and he gets all four electoral votes from Maine. This is excellent news for Kerry, since it makes it less likely Bush can put together an alternative if Kerry takes the upper midwest.
  •  FOX CALLS OHIO FOR BUSH??? (none)
    Nice little trick there. 17% of the precincts still uncounted, 1.5 million absentee ballots uncounted, a margin of 125,000 votes, and they're calling it???  

    Fuckers.  Why do we expect any less of them, after they called Florida in 2000?  Hey, if it worked once, try it again, see what happens.  Bastards.

    •  Well... (none)
      Michael Barone made the call. The numbers and counties aren't there for Kerry.
    •  Where's the 1.5 million absentees from? (none)
      Where's the 1.5 million absentees figure from? Just curious?

      And, I agree. It's b.s. I don't even know that Kerry lost it without the absentee ballots. The last ballots counted in Cuyahoga will be the poorest areas of Cleveland, and there's 200,000 left to be counted in, at least. It is NOT unthinkable that Kerry will get 3/4 of that.

      Think about it -- I'm underemployed, maybe I'm ethnic or African-American, I'm voting for the first time. Who the heck do you think I'm going to vote for?

      Hold on here, folks. It's not over. Especially with 1.5 million absentees.

  •  CALL FOX NOW (none)

    CALL FOX NEWS NOW: 212.301.3000

    "If they don't do their duty by the Democratic Party, they are the most ungrateful people in the world!" -Harry Truman

    by DWCG on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:44:36 PM PST

  •  Wisconsin and Iowa (none)
    Razor-thin leads for Kerry there too. Yow.  I'm fixin' to blow chunks.
  •  Its not just a Bush victory (none)
    Its looking increasingly likely that 269-269 actually will be the result.  With 86% of NH in, Kerry is up two points, and with 17% of NV in, Kerry is up by a hair (like 3000 votes), so NV is the only variable.  If NV goes red, Bush wins.  If NV goes blue, 269.

    As unpleasant and polarized as the past 4 years have been, there's a good chance that the next 4 will be worse.   God help us.

  •  What I don't understand (none)
    is how on earth every exit poll can show a Kerry victory in FL and OH, yet the vote appears to be off by several percent.

    In one state, exit polling of men and women had both genders preferring Kerry, yet Bush had a 5% lead in the vote!

    Are exit polls truly this inaccurate, or is there an enormous fraud in progress?

    "Deposuit potentes de sede et exaltavit humiles." --Luke 1:52

    by Scarpia on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:48:08 PM PST

    •  Last election.... (none)
      exit polls went for Florida and they were right.

      I don't want to don a tinfoil hat just yet, but I WOULD like to see more details in discrepancies between exit polls and reported vote tallies. If they look the same in places with conventional voting but very different in places with Diebold electronic voting no-paper-trail machines, I'd say we have a major fraud problem.

    •  checking for fraud (none)
      In fact, exit polls are the method that foreign observers use to gauge the extent of tampering in third-world countries like Pakistan, but not yetr Texas. Were we to compare the variation between prediction and result in this location, I am certain the variation would all originate in those polling venues using unauditable, self-mystifying digital polling machines.
    •  You are right, Scarpia!! (none)
      Your quote:
      "What I don't understand
      is how on earth every exit poll can show a Kerry victory in FL and OH, yet the vote appears to be off by several percent.
      In one state, exit polling of men and women had both genders preferring Kerry, yet Bush had a 5% lead in the vote!

      Are exit polls truly this inaccurate, or is there an enormous fraud in progress?"
      There IS an enormous fraud in-progress.

      That is an f'n slam-dunk.

      Now, what do we do about it?

  •  KE wins Minnesota (C-Span sez) (none)
    C-Span has given Kerry the win in Minnesota. We're still alive! We've won Wash and Oregon as well.
    It all comes down to Ohio.

    Remember the Red Sox!

    (And that's being said by a lifelong Yankees fan)

  •  via UK Guardian (none)
    based on fox giving W Ohio, the election is over.

    Warning scary pic.

  •  Provisional votes in Ohio? (none)
    One netword said that there are 200,000 provisional ballots estimated in Ohio.

    I have no idea how they would break - Kerry would need to get 75% and have them all accepted to get 100,000 vote edge from these.

    Anyone else here anything?

  •  I'm not finished yet (none)
    I think what's happened is that we were so pumped that we can't shift from inflation to the war of attrition. Provisionals and absentees could make the difference. And fuck fucking fox. Yeah, we're crestfallen, but we're not out yet. Get over it! I feel calmer, personally.
  •  NEW STRATEGY (none)
    The strategy is more then clear for 06 and 08... BE LIBERAL. All this crap about "electability" is clearly not helping us. If the moderates can't win, maybe it's time to give the real democratic party a chance.
    •  B.S. (none)
      The strategy is to fight through the courts if need be to get EVERY BALLOT COUNTED IN OHIO!

      Fox News doesn't call the election for us! Neither does some friendly limey paper!

      People, Ohio is within reach.

      I hope to God Kerry and his team have bigger balls than most of what I'm seeing on display here. Absentees, Cuyahoga, even Hamilton, provisional ballots -- any of these things could swing it to us. Ohio is NOT over.

  •  you forgot NM (none)
    With OH, NM and Alaska it would be over

    "Democracy is coming to the USA" - Leonard Cohen

    by taonow on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:50:33 PM PST

  •  MSNBC sez... (none)
    Cuyahoga County.  Kerry needed to pick up about 180,000.  Cuyahoga gives him 190,000.

    I'm not giving up until it's mathematically impossible.  And right now, that's not the case.  OH makes things MUCH easier, but it's not the end.

  •  Does anyone know what votes in OH Kerry means? (none)
    OK, I'm good at math, and even after Cuyahoga county is done at the rate on the websites now, we're behind in Ohio. Less behind than now, but probably a full 100K.

    Over at TAPPED, Nick C. wrote "I hear that John Kerry has run up huge numbers in Ohio that are not yet reflected in the count -- and that's why the Republicans are engaging in scorched-earth challenges at the eleventh hour."

    What's he talking about?

  •  Guess who gives Ohio to Bush (none)
  •  Oh, man... (none)
    This is a nail-biter...  But I'm getting discouraged.  I'm afraid that Kerry can't pull this off.  We live in Texas, which we knew would go to Bush (what the hell is it with these people down here), but to see so much of the rest of the country eagerly embrace his idiocy.  If he wins, we won't recognize this country in 4 years.  If you read the 2004 platform of the Texas Republican Party, they are in favor of 1) withdrawing from the UN and evicting it from the US, 2) abolishing the minimum wage 3) abolishing the US Department of Education, 4) getting rid of all gun registration and gun control laws, 5) dispelling the "myth" of the separation of church and state, 6) overturning Roe vs. Wade, 7) eliminating the IRS and all taxes on income, dividends, corporate taxes, property.
    Welcome to your new world.
    •  No kidding. (none)
      I've been sitting here wondering what rights I can expect to lose in the next four years if things continue to go as badly as they are now.

      "How do you ask someone to be the last man to die for a mistake?" -John Kerry

      by tryptamine on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 10:12:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ohio (none)
    Forget Florida.  Kerry keeps gaining in Ohio. We're going to win 283-255.

    linked text

  •  New Mexico (none)
    it went to gore last time - barely (closer than florida).  if we lose it, we lose the country.
  •  can Kerry get (none)
    285,000 of the remaining 485,000 votes to be counted in OH?

    Bush lead down to 100,000.

  •  Regardless of what happens... (4.00)
    Regardless of the results, I think the real enemy here has been made clear.  The majority of Bush voters believe that Bush supports the Kyoto treaty, the land mine ban, the nuclear test ban treaty, and so on, and so on.  Americans don't have an f-ing clue - they have literally become too uninformed to vote responsibly - and I place that blame squarely on big media.  We need strong corporate media opposition and we need to confront rhetoric with facts.  Everything that has been done from the primaries on out (playing Dean's scream 800 or so times in several days on CNN months after he said he would roll back media deregulation, etc) has shown us that the media has not done its job of informing the electorate - its primary responsibility to this democracy.  It serves its own interests. They need to be brought down hard.
  •  It feels like a Vikings game (none)
    Too many times our beloved football team will show all the signs of a march to victory,  only to blow it in the final two minutes.  

    There's always a Hail Mary...

  •  litigation (none)
    OH will come down to provisional ballots and litigation. Either side will litigate OH. Our job is to focus on supporting the fight in OH for those final counts, and getting out the truth about voter suppression there.

    MSNBC just call OH but still....

    From another country under U.S. military occupation ... FREE HAWAII!

    by scottmaui on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:57:08 PM PST

  •  A glimmer of hope (none)
    Kerry gains 40,000 in Ohio in a 1% update

    84% - B: 2,372,000 K: 2,232,000 (minus 140,000)
    85% - B: 2,392,000 K: 2,294,000 (minus 98,000)

    •  More math (none)
      if 85% of the B/K total is roughly 4,686,000

      then the remaining 15% is roughly 827,000

      and Kerry has to have a margin of 98,000-plus within those 827,000 votes

      Kerry needs at least 56% of the B/K votes remaining to be counted, for Kerry to come out ahead in Ohio.

      I am Victorian!

      by MJB on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 10:07:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  FUCKING NBC!!!! (none)
    Why did they just call Ohio?  Results aren't in, provisional ballots, they still haven't called MI which is much wider.

    This is an outrage.

  •  We STILL have Ohio: 271+ win unless they CHEAT (none)
    Kerry-Edwards Online Forum




    If people go to sleep, thinkning Bush won Ohio, it will be hard to contest




    We have enough votes just with MN IA WI MI and OHIO -that is 271.
    That is without HI and NH NEV NM AK

    You want the Truth ? You can't handle the Truth ! ~~~~ See my blog here~~~~

    by lawnorder on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 09:59:14 PM PST

  •  New Mexico (none)

    191,000 absentee ballots there... if Bush wins Ohio, Kerry needs every undecided state except Alaska, but he's also leading in all of them (though only by infinitismal margins, e.g. 3,000 votes in Nev and 500 in Iowa) except New Mexico. I'm going to bed. I hope there is a lot more blue on the map when I wake up!

  •  Was just listening to Air America... (none)
    They were interviewing an Ohio mayor. He said there was a precent that hadn't been counted yet, and the returns are showing a 195k vote IN FAVOR of Kerry. That would put Kerry over Bush, but provisional and absentee's could change that in a week when they're all counted.
  •  Stop the Denial (2.80)
    I hate to say it, but gearing up for "legal battles" and accusations of cheating and intimidation and theft and long knives, etc. is bullshit. You are fighting 2000. This isn't 2000.

    Bush won, or will win the popular vote by 2 million votes. Two million votes. He will win the electoral vote by more than "one" state. He will have won it be Florida and Ohio, both of which gave him--or will give him--margins of victory of 2-4 percentage points, NOT 537 votes.

    This was a close election, but you all have to wake up and realize that this was not the result of stealing an election. So cut that shit out. If you don't like Republican politics, understandable. If you think the American majority is voting based on fear and campaign distortions, well, join the club.

    But this "call Fox and demand satisfaction" and to insist on "electoral challenges" or to accuse them of fraud is not going to cut it.

    I won't be back here, not for a long time. I can't stand to see people I like and respect so much in so much pain. And denial.

    Here's a hard truth we are all going to have to learn to accept:

    You know why we lost tonight? Because we ran a worse campaign or had a worse candidate, or, more likely, had the tide of history against us in trying to beat an incumbent during a time of war.

    But our GOTV efforts yielded us NO more 18 - 29 year-olds than in 2000. The Trippi "internet youth explosion" failed to materialize. We didn't reach out to the center enough. And we spent too much time hand-wringing over goddamned tracking polls.

    We need to get it together as a party. They control the government now, again.

    And I fear we have only ourselves to blame.

    Go to bed. George Bush is our President again.
    •  Okay "Lars" (none)
      Whatever you say 'bro.

      Go to bed and wake up tomorrow to the sound of shit hitting the fan.

      Remember those fat white Republicans screaming and pounding on doors in Broward County last year?

      That was nothing.

      "Isn't life disappointing?" "Yes it is."

      by ubarquat on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 10:07:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  No -- YOU stop the denial (none)
      The popular vote doesn't mean shit.

      On top of that, the Bush lead in Ohio is a scant 180,000 votes, with Cleveland still not finished counting in nor with Hamilton finished counting in, and I guarantee the areas uncounted are the poorest areas -- not going Bush's way. These people prognosticating about the state of Ohio don't know what they're talking about, probably because they haven't been to these cities. Cleveland's not going Republican, Lars, and seeing as Cinci' is in Hamilton and is the most likely one hanging out there. Big cities, slow to count. Then, there's the unappreciated prize, look at this shit people -- LUCAS, less than 36% reporting. This IS Toldeo people. Toledo. This is an extension of Detroit, NOT OHIO. Multiply these numbers by two, roughly, Kerry picks up 70,000 more votes over Bush.

      This one is going to come down to less than 10,000 votes, easy. This will go to the courts to get the provisional ballots and absentee ballots counted. I didn't think it would go this way but it is.

      I'm telling you, too, I bet money the slow count has a LOT to do with a Republican Secretary of State.

    •  We ran a great campaign (none)
      and had a great candidate.

      We didn't run it in a great country. It's time for the blue states to look at the map and see what America really is.

      It's not the greatest country in the world. It's one of the most embarassing, shameful, backward, violent, ignorant and deeply evil.

      God Fuck America.

  •  I heard one of bush's electors in West Virginia (none)
    won't vote for him. If that happens, and the vote is 269 for kerry, 268 for bush, and 1 for someone else, does it go to the house? I think it does because it isn't a majority plus one.
  •  Cuyahoga County numbers (none)
    We've got a margin of over 210,000 votes in Cuyahoga, with almost all votes tallied (except those still voting and provisional, etc)

    Vote for 1 (With 1447 of 1458 precincts counted)

    GEORGE W. BUSH/DICK CHENEY  214595    

    JOHN F. KERRY/JOHN EDWARDS  430338    



  •  If it's 269-269 don't forget about Richie Robb (none)
    the mayor(repub) in South Charleston, WV, has stated publically that he may not cast his electoral vote for Bush if he takes WV....270-268 Kerry....
  •  Florida Department of State Florida - Count (none)
    why has nobody mentioned that the largest counties in Florida have not finalized their counts according to Florida Department of State
    Division of Elections

    Note that the are all high DEM counties

    Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach... etc.

  •  they're calling OH for bush (none)
    with over 10% of the vote outstanding and kerry surging. premature at best

    Don't you know there ain't no Devil; that's just God when He's drunk. -- Tom Waits

    by johnny vagabond on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 10:06:08 PM PST

    •  Me ... angry (none)
      Kind of reminds me of 2000.  If Bush is "leading" tonight, then any silliness that is exposed tomorrow will look like Kerry is trying to "steal" the election from Bushie.

      Remember this:

      In August 2003, after returning from President Bush's Crawford, TX ranch, Diebold's chief executive wrote a fundraising letter where he stated he was "committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year."

      "Isn't life disappointing?" "Yes it is."

      by ubarquat on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 10:12:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ohio is not lost yet! (none)


      Victory is at hand!

      by Shockwave on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 10:13:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  2004=1928 (none)
    2004 = 1928

    Let Hoover/Bush have his day
    in the sun.

    There's a storm coming.

    And its full force will rain down on the republicans.

    The GOP rightwing dies a terrible death between now and 2008--A death of their own causing.

    •  Sure. (none)
      Say what you want, buddy, but I think we both know which party is about to die a horrible death.  Any party that can't manage a win against this asshole doesn't deserve the respect or votes it gets.

      "I don't believe in banning gay marriage -- EVEN THOUGH I AM VERY RELIGIOUS AND DON'T SUPPORT GAY MARRIAGE."  "I think a woman should have a right to choose -- EVEN THOUGH I AM VERY RELIGIOUS AND I DON'T BELIEVE IN ABORTION."

      Please.  This ridiculous "moderation" tactic has become embarrassing and untenable.

      --- Idealist (n) - An idealist is one who, on noticing that a rose smells better than a cabbage, concludes that it will also make better soup.

      by dspiewak2634 on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 10:12:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  OVER (none)
    unfortunately its time to say gnite gracie
    he let that asshole define him
    we may be looking at another 12 years of republican rule when you consider mccain waiting in the wings with Bush Jr Jr as his running mate

    Mistake number one was nominating a senator

    senators NEVER win presidential elections period

  •  cnn is not calling it (none)

    Lots of people see the world in Black and White. It is mostly just shades of grey.

    by Davinci on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 10:12:56 PM PST

  •  more voting fraud link (none)

    Analysis of the polling data vs actual data and voting systems supports the hypothesis that evoting may be to blame in the discrepancies. Nevada has evoting but with verified receipts. In that state the Exit Polling matches the actual results within .1% accuracy. However for other swing states Bush has unexplainable leads.



    :) :) :)

    •  I know (none)
      this is out of place, but Daschle losing in South Dakota is almost as painful.  I don't love Tom, but losing to that spineless prick Thune is a total embarrassment.  Thune is an empty suit if I ever saw one.    
    •  where? (none)
      which station reversed itself?
    •  Says who? (none)
      NBC hasn't reversed (and JUST explained why they called it), in spite of Hilary Rosen calling them out on it on air. never called it.  Just put it on CBS, and they have not called it either.

      Maybe this is an abberation or a sign of institutional practices.

    •  DAMN STRAIGHT! (none)
      Look, I grew up in Detroit, I know Ohio fairly well. Lots of friends and family went to school there (they seem to have an awful lot of small colleges in Ohio for some reason). Anyway, I know all these major areas, and look at this crap not counted in YET!

      Kerry is within 125,000 votes at this point -- that's it.

      He'll pick up another 37-40,000 votes over Bush in Cuyahoga. That's Cleveland. Bush will lead at 80,000 there.

      Hamilton is an odd one. It's Cincinnati, which I know is conservative, but the town is breaking even right now just about with 6 out of 10 ballots counted. It wouldn't take much -- a single inner city neighborhood left to report in --- to add another 10,000-20,000 to Kerry. Bush leads 60,000, maybe 70,000, or maybe it stays even and it breaks around 80,000 for Bush, still.

      Lucas -- Kerry's not-so-secret weapon. Lucas is Toledo. Ohioans would hate to admit it, but Toledo is a big urban suburb of Detroit. That's breaking 6 to 4 in favor of Kerry, with barely A THIRD of the precincts reporting. This one is big. We're talking 250,000 votes to be counted. It'll go about 225,000 votes to 150,000 votes in FAVOR OF KERRY. That's 75,000.

      At that point, we're within 10,000, for REAL, no b.s. Within 10,000 for REAL, at which point it goes to absentees and provisionals. Assuming those follow the rest of the state's trends, and if there really are 1.5 million of those, people -- IT'S IN THE BAG IN OHIO!!!!

  •  Kerry campaign thinks (none)
    That when tonight is done Bush will be up around 50K.  They say then, that provisional ballots (supposedly 250K) will be enough to make up the lead.  

    The best we can hope for it Bush to not win tonight.

  •  Crying SHAME. (none)
    All my hard work over the past 6 months.. gone.. gone gone.. Our country can NOT survive another four years of this.. NO.. NO.. we can't.. As I said Before.. get the lawyers.. find the sex scandals.. do to them.. what they did to us.. Time to do a CLINTON to them.. take them down.. IMPEACH on the WAR.. IMPEACH IMPEACH.. don't let the fact that everything will be against us.. FIGHT LIKE HELL.. FIGHT FIGHT.. and then we have to wait for another FOUR FUCKING YEARS to get this country back..tears are streaming down my face.. Been up 20 hours. need sleep. can't sleep..
  •  ohio (none)
    i hate to say it.

    but I'm waiting for cnn.

    when cnn says it...

    i'll believe it.

    the precincts left are mostly poor dem areas.

    we'll see.

    I might be Cheney'd up, but I'm not that Georgie!

    by circuithead on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 10:15:04 PM PST

  •  Iowa Heading to the Dark Side as Well (none)
    All the Kerry counties have reported and Bush has grabbed the lead.  Add in NM, NV and possibly Wisconsin and it likely will be 286-296 for Bush.

    Not the right time for recriminations, but having Iowa go for Bush after it gave us Kerry really pisses me off.

    government of the people, by the people, and for the people shall not perish from the's just on hiatus for a while

    by IronyAbounds on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 10:15:22 PM PST

  •  Go to Bed (none)
    You'll need the rest.  Tomorrow we pick up the pieces and create the new foundations for the reinvigoration of the progressive movement.

    The Bush government will have to clean up its own mess, and we can lob grenades, craft agendas, build coalitions and recruit new candidates for local ofice all around the country from among our own ranks.

    This is our baptism.  This is 1964 for the Republicans, only this time, the Republicans are us.  The days of modern conservatism are numbered since it is completeley incoherent:  big government and deficits with international wrecklessness.  Just as the Goldwater movement reinvigorated the right, so now we must build the grass roots and intellectual foundations for the progressive left.  This defeat creates for us a new opportunity, if only we will seize it.

    Look around you.  Look at the community we've built.  Don't shoot at each other.  Stop blaming the youth who did not show up:  we were naive to count on them.  That's life.  We have to be adult and be smarter about winning in the future.

    There will be fights among the Dean people and the Hillary people and so on for the soul of our new movement.  That's fine:  the friction can be creative.  But let's not forget:  we are in this together, and we face a common enemy:  the forces of fundamentalist abuse of power and greed, and an international foe that want to see us all dead or hidden under burkas with no rights.  

    So get some sleep.  Tomorrow we have work to do.

  •  At 89% in Ohio (none)
    The margin is about 119,000 votes.

    Ohio is going to the dark side unless there are a few hundred thousand provisional ballots that are not part of this count.

    And New Mexico is going to the dark side as well.

    Palpatine and Vader for at least four more years.

    •  The Hillary people? (none)
      Those are the same soulless freaks who've lost us the past 2 elections.  Hil is my senator and a damn good one, but what southern/midwestern state will she pull?  I think we almost need a disaster under Bush to change people's minds.  I'll always beleive that we didn't expose Bushie's falling asleep at the wheel prior to 9-11 effectively.  I haven't given up yet, but tonight is a disaster in the making.  
  •  It Ain't Over Yet, Folks! (none)
    Ohio is still in play, as is WI and MN.  NH went Kerry all the way, a pickup.  It's going to be a nail-biter.
  •  How did we lose? (none)

    How did Nader get even a single vote this time? And how did 9% of Dems go for Bush, while only 7% of Repubs go for Kerry? That is totally NOT what we have been hearing for the last couple of months.

    I am shocked... in denial... it must be a mistake... they must have cheated again...

    ...or is America really THAT stupid?

  •  NH (none)
    new hampshire has been called.

    I might be Cheney'd up, but I'm not that Georgie!

    by circuithead on Tue Nov 02, 2004 at 10:20:17 PM PST

  •  The ideology divide.... (none)
    Unfortunately, and I know it is not over yet, for you folks down there, but it is shaping up to look like there is a major ideological/cultural divide that runs down about the middle, which has yawned open in the United States. (Under that influence, the most reactionary elements are being encouraged up here as well, to tell the truth.) On one side is that more progressive, liberal and humanitarian US that certainly many, if not most Canadians like to identify with. On the other though, and "maybe" going to carry the day here tonight, unfortunately, is that U.S. that marches to a more narrowly and jingoistic "nationalist" and militarist tune.

    Most difficult for us to relate to and understand, however, on almost any level, for the mainstream in this country, is that strange religious jingoism as well, and not only amongst white folks, preoccupied with values rooted in a past I would have certainly thought was left behind with the Dark Ages.  It is not only Muslim countries in the Middle East mired in backward "moralist/creationist" thinking. It seems to resounds no less in down home, Bible thumping USA as well, with its own particular hostility to social and moral modernity.

    Which is not to say that we don't have those social elements as well, being fed and encouraged by what is occurring there in the U.S., 'cause we certainly do. It is though, I bloody hope anyway, not anywhere on near the same level of power and influence. Though that "rightward" shift of the last couple of decades, beginning in the US and Britain, is washing up on nearly every shore throughout the capitalist world, here and in Europe, encouraging the stirring of a particularly disturbing Brownshirt mentality at its extreme edges.

    This election in the US has not been a pretty or comforting thing to watch tonight. And it is going to make things likely even more difficult for "the left" and that greater broad "progressive" streams that still survives throughout the nations of "advanced" capitalism.

    Too bad, I had hoped to go to bed tonight, comforted in the knowledge that you folks had at least overcome Bush and his PNAC crowd. Instead, it is much less certain than I had hoped. Which is going to make matters even more difficult and problematic going out. And likely a whole lot less peaceful, in Iraq, elsewhere, and within your own country.

    Too bad.

    Maybe I will still be proven wrong. Though, no matter, it's still too damned close for my liking.

    This is shaping up to be a real and serious war within society.

  •  Who are these men? (none)
    If you click on the Ohio state on the CSPAN EV map, there are two other people in Ohio who have received votes for president:

     Bush, George (i) Rep 2,478,134 50.95
     Kerry, John Dem 2,361,524 48.55
     Badnarik, Michael NP 13,158 .27
     Peroutka, Michael NP 11,320 .23

    With Kerry needing to make up 50,000 votes in provisional ballots, who are these men who account for half of those votes?

    just another wtf?

  •  i'm done for the night... (none)
    it's looking like bush has managed to take this one, this one that was so very important.  i have some hope that ohio can turn around, but not high hopes...  i go to bed a sad man, having lost ever more faith in the people of this country.  progressives and freethinkers are overwhelmed by reactionaries and mythmakers.  my dreams have been dashed.

    this hurts.


    •  Buck up (none)
      Look, it's not armageddon.  Get a grip on yourself.

      We worked hard, built some good foundations, etc.  But when Goldater lost in 1964 - a lot more decisively than we will probably lose - he still had laid the seeds for the ascendance of the Republican Party in the modern era.

      This is our 1964.

      And what happened to the man who bested Goldwater?  He left office in disgrace after a failed war.  Now, we have to be even more aggressive in ratcheting up the red meat rhetoric against the Islamist fascists, since that is clearly what America wants to hear, and it happens to be the right (and liberal, as in pro-liberty) thing to do.  At the same time, we fight for liberty all around, and aggressivley and unapologetically pursue a progressive domestic agenda of renewal, especially at the local level (think:  Christian Coalition, Moral Majority).

      Some of us have to get away from our computers and onto our local ballots.

      So put this in perspective.  We have an historic opportunity, if only we will wake up and take it.  Without this defeat, we probably would not do the things we need to do to create a sustainable movement:  we would have been satisfied.  But now we are not.  

      Blessing in disguise?  Even I'm not that pollyannish.  But a new and unique opportunity?  Yes, resoundingly, I think it is.  The other party is bloated, currupt and ripe for skewering, and it's not that hard to do from a position of the minority, since we don't have the direct burden of governing.

  •  The "Absentee" vote (none)
    Does anyone out there realize that the "Absentee" vote includes the early voters.  Almost all of the counties nationwide are waiting until last, or like Florida, later in the week to count the "Absentee" ballots.  We all saw the lines, voter turnout was huge this year!  And yet, that's not showing up in the returns to date.  For most states, there's no way to know when the Absentee ballots are counted, as they are considering themselves reportable once 100% of the precint is in.  Wait for EVERY VOTE TO BE COUNTED.  All of the "missing" Kerry votes are among those Early Voters.

    Check out Mecklenburg County of North Carolina, one tiny example.  Before "Absentee" votes, with 99% reporting from
    Bush  106175    Kerry   108,353

    After Absentee:
    Bush 153900     Kerry 166461
    A pickup of 12,500 votes in one county THAT Voted for Bush last election 51% to 49%.

    Make sure that EVERY VOTE IS COUNTED!!!!!!

  •  A late-night cry (none)
    My husband and daughter are in bed as I sit alone in the dark crying.  I have been to war -- both the Gulf and in Somalia, and it forever changed my image of war.  Americans are full of ignorance and greed, and during a time when we, as the public, are not even allowed to see the flag-draped coffins of our fallen, what are we to expect in this election?  As long as they don't have to see the truth and are free to go to the mall on Saturdays, they will vote to keep this evil man in power -- so we can have oil -- so our oil prices here rise so high, our elderly can't afford to warm themselves this winter.  My heart is broken -- not only because of the loss of an election -- but in the loss of my country that I fought for, and who my friends "think" they are dying for.  To me, Satan is the father of lies and of chaos, and I know where he lives.  I will not give up.  I will never give up -- but first, I have to cry, but I know many of you out there are crying with me and that gives me hope.
    •  Greg Palast (none)
      reported before this began that we had a million vote handicap due to the shit the republicans have been pulling.

      It stinks to high heaven of fraud, but we'll just have to wait and see.

      As I said before we started, if Bush wins, he's the anti-Christ.

      We need to stay in touch so we can create an underground network because I fear the shit is going to get pretty bad here in America for liberals.

      I wish I could have been able to spread a little more Illinois Blue around.

      I wonder what Michael Morre is saying. I'm going to check it out now.

      the world is a freak show and we've all got a front row ticket-George Carlin

  •  recount (none)
    how close does it have to be in any state to demand a manual recount....we know that they are more accurate...
  •  Absentee Vote (Maybe just Grasping at Straws) (none)
    I assume  the absentee vote has not been counted.  In 2000, according to USA today, "In Ohio, 440,456 absentee votes were cast in the 2000 election, nearly 10% of the total."  If there were 500,000 cast this year (and all indications are that the requests were up this year), Kerry would need a 60-40 split to make up the difference.  

    Anyone think this is possible?

    •  It won't be over for another 11 days (none)
      Look, Ohio is too close to call, and will remain so until both provisional votes and absentee votes are counted. Ohio is Florida 2004. Any five voters and an elected official can request a recount in Ohio. Don't think they won't get it. There are 380K provisional ballots to go in Ohio and who knows how many absentee. Iowa was also won by absentee ballots by gore in 2000. This is NOT going to be decided tonight, period. Go to bed, but stop whining about who lost and why. Noone's lost yet, and we WILL NOT know for another 11 days, because that's how long by law you have to wait to count provisional ballots in Ohio. Stop whining and start spinning these facts!
  •  On a lighter note. . . (none)
    I wouldn't want to be John Zogby tonight!
  •  380,000 outstanding in Ohio (none)
    PLUS the provisional....reported by Judy...
  •  what is going on in iowa (none)
    broken down machines, fatigue on the part of the workers....sec of state announces they won't announce winner until Wed?....getting new machines....cnn reporting....

    do we know who the sec of state is in Iowa?

  •  what we need (none)
    Is public support from democrats EVERYWHERE urging Sen. Kerry to fight for all the votes to be counted!  If he goes in with the lawyers without our support he'll be hounded by the media and it will look as though he can't face their reality.  If we stand up and demand he fight for US, then all of the blame is taken off his shoulders!  

    Fight for us Senator!  

  •  Dear Friends (none)
    It's not yet certain that Bush Inc. has stolen another election by a combination of government/corporate control of the media and a variety of election dirty tricks, some of them undetectable (a third of the country voted on electronic machines with no paper trail), but right now it does not look good for an honest election process nor for the future of our democracy and our country.

    If the worst is true, that this fascist junta has retained power, I urge you not to use phrases like, "Bush won," or "Kerry lost."  If we think in this non-factual way, if we buy into the way the corporate media frames the "results," then we will get angry at our fellow Americans and at other innocent targets, and waste an opportunity to help each other turn our anger into good energy that will renew us and that will save our country in the end.

    This was neither a fair nor an honest election.  The corporate news media is neither fair nor honest.  Many election officials are neither fair nor honest.  Many of the election systems they have put into place are neither fair nor honest.  We know these things are true.  The entire political system is stacked heavily against us, and against the fairness, honesty and justice that we hold dear. I still strongly believe that the vast majority of people in this country also want fairness, honesty and justice, and cannot get it.  Their will is systematically thwarted.

    There was a unprecedented mobilization for this election.  It is beyond belief that it resulted in affirming Bush Inc.  Something is wrong.  Something is very, very wrong.  

    We will have to make a decision about this, whether to put our minds and energies to work establishing what is wrong with the numbers, and how shaving off votes here and there combined with other factors to predetermine the outcome.  We will likely find, as in '00, that it was stolen but that there is nothing we can do about it, other than publicize our conclusions.  And beyond the election itself, there are many decisions to be made about what to focus on--what are the most fundamental changes needed to restore democracy, and how can we get them done?  

    But beginning with this "win/lose" terminology, I beg you all not to think in THEIR terms, and not to accept ANY meaning put on this event that makes you feel despair and hopelessness.  Despair and hopelessness and frontal lobotomies for all citizens is exactly what this junta desires.  Don't let them have it.  Don't let them have YOU.

    In our hope for ousting Bush Inc., and putting an honest and intelligent man in the White House, we developed a vision of what a good country would be. That vision is itself a victory.  We certainly did not learn it from the Politburo media.  We developed it each on our own, and collectively, here at dKos and in other forums.  

    Hold onto that vision. Know that it is shared by at least half the people voting in this election, and, I believe, by most of the people in the country.  Care for all those people.  Love them.  Don't abandon them in their great need--out of despair and exhaustion.

    Great progressive movements often take time.  Think of the early suffragettes, the early labor unions, the early black voting rights activists. We have only just begun to save this country and this planet. THIS progressive movement--to oust Bush Inc.--is only about a year old. Some started back in '00, but the movement--the widespread organized discontent and determination to change things, and the cooperation among diverse groups--is very new.

    It's really not surprising that Bush Inc. may have foiled us.  We need to fully understand how they did it, what Bush Inc. is, how it gained power, and how to resist it.  We may decide that resistance should take a different form than political action aimed at elections.  Or we may decide that we just have to try harder, politically, and try again.  Do everything we did this time, or moreso.  We need to figure out what fundamental changes are needed (the cost of campaigns, and that money going to corporate media, is surely one of them), and what changes are possible and doable.  

    But most of all we need to pull together--and maintain this online community as one of the most powerful forces of dissent and change in the world today.

    My love to you all!  You are the greatest of patriots!  You are the American Revolution reborn!

    •  The Fight Goes On (none)
      Dear PeacePatriot,

      Thank you for your contribution...I fully agree with all you say.  My family and I are dejected, shattered by what did happen.  It will take all of us awhile to recover I am afraid.
      In the meantime, I am sure that the roadblocks the junta will be putting in place will make it even harder for us to break their stranglehold on our institutions.

      We wouldn't be the Humanists that we are if the hurting we see all around us will not, again, call us to arms.   We will fight another day.

      Thanks again to all that tried to make this nation a better place.


  •  the big surprise (none)
    will be kerry taking ohio

    Blog this! Visit me at K Street Blues. It will change your life.

    by AggieDemocrat on Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 04:51:31 AM PST

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site