The Republican right would like you to believe that this election was about moral values, and that they just kicked our asses. The SCLM is ginning up to spread the word.
Don't believe it.
Much has been made of the exit polls that show 22 percent of voters ranked moral values as the #1 issue. Roughly 80 percent of those folks voted for Bush, so it seems sensible to regard this bloc as the core Republican constituency. But compare it to the core Democratic issues: 20 percent of respondents ranked economy/jobs #1, and 8 percent ranked health care #1. And about 80 percent of voters ranking those issues #1 voted for Kerry. (Figures from exit poll results at CNN.)
So what this really looks like is not a Republican landslide but two dueling bases, of roughly similar proportions.
Where Kerry lost was in the middle--among those who didn't rank those core party ID questions as the most important issues in the election. And the paramount issues there were the Iraq war and terrorism.
- 15 percent of those polled ranked Iraq their number one issue, and Kerry won those folks, 73% to 26%.
- a slightly higher percentage--19%--ranked terrorism the #1 issue, and Bush ran even more strongly among them--86% to 14%.
So what conclusions to draw?
Hand-wringing on the left about values plays into the Republicans' interpretation of this election. And to the extent that they're successful in imposing that interpretation, they'll use it to pursue their issues. So we need to be clear in insisting that this election was NOT won and lost on values.
If Dems lost this election, narrowly, over Iraq and the War on Terror, then it shouldn't be the occasion for a major re-think of the party's position on guns, god, and gays. This is true in part, sadly, because many Democratic leaders have already caved on those issues ("marriage is between one man and one woman," anyone?)--a point that seems to get lost by those trumpeting gay marriage bans as "Republican" victories.
Iraq is not likely to be an issue in the next Presidential election, at least not comparable to this year. The War on Terror is likely to fade as well but will surely endure longer. Here Dems need to be guided by the example of the Cold War. It was generally a stronger Republican than Democratic issue, but plenty of Dems found a way to take a strong stance. And in any event, the Cold War didn't decide every election from 1948-88.