A few weeks ago I was optimisitc that we would pick up the Senate, but things have really deteriorated for the Democrats. We're now looking at losing one or two seats.....
First, the good news:
Illinois. Duh.
Kentucky. We've all been watching. It is very much in play. I think Mongiardo will actually pull this off - we need it.
Alaska. Knowles continues to hold a solid lead. I think he will hang on.
Colorado. Salazar remains solid there and will win unless there is a big Bush surge.
The bad news comes after the break...
The unknown:
South Dakota: Thune has a poll showing him up, but I don't believe it. I think the voter fraud scandle really set Thune back. Daschle will likely hang on.
Florida: Castor needs to hold this seat if we will have any chance. It's a dead toss up right now. I think ACT and Kerry will put this one over the top for Castor.
Now the bad:
Georgia: Duh.
Louisiana. Vitter is going to win this without a runoff. John has run a really lackluster campaign and the DSCC should have been on the air hammering Vitter weeks ago.
North Carolina. 2 months ago, this seemed liked our safest of the contested seats. No longer. Burr has shot past Bowles, who just seems to have a ceiling in the state. The tobacco buyout was a big win for Burr, who will win this race by at least five points.
South Carolina. I still hope Inez can pull off an upset - goodness knows Demint has tried to give her a shot. But it looks like she will fall short.
Oklahoma. I thought Carson would pull away because Coburn is simply crazy. It's not happening. This state is just tooo conservative and Bush's coattails are big here. Coburn is going to win this race, sadly.
Where does that leave us? Dems pick up 4, the GOP picks up 4 with 2 seats, both Dem held, still up in the air. Under this scenario, the best we can hope for is to stay even.
There's still a week left, and hopefully we can turn it around in LA, NC and OK... but it's not looking good