Election Fallout: What It Means
Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 12:57:20 PM PDT
First off, get the panic out of the way. Second, get the denial out of the way too.
There is no silver lining here, and there is no "yes, but..." This was a conservative win, across the country, and it was a big and important one. And it will have dramatic, and longlasting, repercussions.
I think many of us woke up today to discover what we all should have learned during the House and Senate races two years ago. There are, simply put, less (voting) social liberals than there are social conservatives. By a lot. And social conservatives don't care about foreign policy, or economic issues, or deficits, or education, or even basic competence. They care, primarily if not solely, about making sure that their social values are "defended", which essentially means (1) that their religion will be endorsed, legislatively, over your religion, and (2) their particular social or ethnic bigotries will be legally allowed. Liberalism and Conservatism are most pure when they are applied socially; fiscal and other "forms" of liberal/conservative divisions are decidedly more, well, arbitrary.
So what does this victory mean about America, as a country?
There were so many issues, so many problems, so many mini-disasters leading into this election, and yet the outcome -- and we will wait for the more in-depth analysis, here, but the first analyses seem very, very solid -- indicates voting took place largely among social issues, not national/international events. That, simply put, is astonishing. And the results are going to be dramatic.
A side note: These predictions should surprise no one. They are all amply supported by the facts on the ground, and are not terribly controversial. They will take place not because of the outcome of the presidential race, but because of the outcome of the Senate races, where the Republican Party now, with expected conservative and moderate Democratic support, has the clear votes they need to pass some basic planks of their platform.
- We Hate Gays
In every opportunity, in every state, to pass anti-gay legislation, the voters have done so. Across the board. This isn't a statistical fluke. It is a clear attack on gay Americans. We're not just saying keep it to yourselves, or don't ask, don't tell anymore. We're saying you have no rights, and we are going to explicitly legislate that. Want to visit your partner in the hospital? Forget about it. What to adopt? Not f--ing likely.
You may be shocked I chose such harsh language above; however, it is an accurate reflection of the message America has sent. This is bigotry, pure and simple, and in front of the entire world.
Prediction: Expect it to get worse, not better. The Republican party has found a minority group which can be (legally) scapegoated whenever the "base" needs a push. And, as has been demonstrated, the "base" responds very well to attacks against gays. In the next few election cycles, expect this newfound bigotry to be exploited heavily, with laws against gays adopting children, receiving partner benefits, burning flags, whatever faux issue can be dredged up. Bigotry is back, and it's a movement.
- We Hate Blacks
It should be lost on no one that the Republican "challengers", almost to the precinct, were centered on minority neighborhoods. The Republican party is still the party of racism, pure and simple, and the Democratic party is still feeling the pain of supporting civil rights forty years ago. When the Republicans want to get out their base, they appeal to racism, in terms of ominous warnings about the "Detroit" vote, or "rampant fraud" evidenced by any suspected increase in turnout in minority areas. When Republicans want to suppress turnout on the other side, they specifically target blacks. These are simply facts.
We, as liberals, are loathe to acknowledge it -- perhaps because we generally live among different crowds -- but racism is alive and very, very well in America, and it appeals to a great many people. When people talk about fraud in minority neighborhoods, they are talking about the implicit assumption that minorities shouldn't be voting at all, and certainly can't be trusted to do it "correctly."
The question is, why is it getting worse in the last few years, instead of better? Again, the answer is simple: because it works. Among the Republican base, racism works wonders for turnout. And we now have, at the top of the party, a set of leaders in the House, Senate, and Presidency that have been very willing to play that card when needed.
Prediction: Affirmative action is going to be under serious attack, starting at the next Congressional election cycle. They'll save that issue as election-time red meat for the base, because there is a lot more support for racism, among that hardcore base, than there is even for...
- We Hate Women
Adult women, anyway. Kiss Roe v. Wade goodbye, because the religious base wants to make sure you live by their religion's rules. And they now decisively have the votes to do it.
Bush has already identified the type of justices he wants to put on the Supreme Court -- Scalia and Thomas are his favorites. He will get to appoint a minimum of one, in the next year, and possibly three in the next few years. Democrats to not have the votes to temper these choices; they will be hard-hard-right conservatives in the Scalia/Thomas model.
Prediction: Roe v. Wade will be overturned in the next four years. It's simply going to happen. What the states will do then is up to them, but expect a serious red/blue discrepancy. I doubt abortion will be outlawed, at the federal level, but it will be outlawed in a number of states.
Affirmative action will also be severely curtailed, but expect that fight to be largely under-the-radar until the next Congressional races heat up.
(As a side note, expect a conservative court to also severely relax limits on what corporations can and can't get away with doing to you.)
- We Like Tax Cuts, and Screw The Kids
Though the election was decided -- astonishingly -- on social issues, the repercussions on economic policy will be enormous. The deficit has grown to the point where not even "fiscal" conservatives were supporting the President, this time around.
Bush and Congress have shown absolutely no compunction to stop the ballooning deficit or rein in increasingly indefensible levels of federal spending. They now have a perceived mandate to continue, which means we can expect another round of tax cuts, and further shaping of the tax code into the flat-tax dreams of the upper class.
Prediction: Expect the southernization of America. Spending on education, environmental protections, and other "blue-state" issues are going to be severely curtailed, because that's the only place where a deeply Red Senate and House will be able to agree to cut. The entire country is going to start seeing the educational systems preferred by the deep South -- and I don't mean that in a good way.
Simultaneously, oil prices, steel prices, and other import prices are going to rise substantially in the coming few years, as foreign investors begin running from a dangerously weak dollar caused be these deficits (and the unwillingness of the government to address them.) What that will result in, in terms of the domestic economy, God only knows, but it isn't good.
- Ideology Trumps Competence
It seems appropriate, somehow, that the I didn't do it presidency would result in a clear mandate that, when it comes to competence and accountability from our leaders, we simply don't give a crap.
George Bush was not reelected for his handling of Iraq. He wasn't reelected because of his (horrific) handling of the economy. He was elected on what he said.
When it comes to any significant measure of his presidency, other than strict "social" issues, his presidency has been a failure. But for the majority of America, that's simply not important.
The Plame outing is perhaps the most concise indicator of the national mood. This was and is a case, pure and simple, of treason. There is no "but..." or "on the other hand..." Plame was an undercover CIA agent with covert contacts in the deeply relevant field of weapons of mass destruction, and she was outed, her corporate cover blown, her field contacts exposed, and the complex fabric of the operation completely and utterly destroyed. So that the White House could score a cheap and meaningless political point.
And nobody cares. America didn't care at the time, didn't care a year later, and doesn't care now. Even treason is not considered a big deal, when backed against the scripted ideology that we are all supposed to follow.
Prediction: God help us all. Seriously. When we have members of the Nixon administration going on television to say that this White House is more corrupt. When we have at this point countless investigations, either underway or tenuously blocked, dealing with corporate corruption and favoritism that stretch from Enron/Iraq connections to Halliburton/Iraq connections... dealing with manipulation of pre-war intelligence that at this point is clearly well within the realm of fraudulent... God help us all.
Because fifty-one percent of America is just fine with it. They simply don't find it to be an issue.
Seriously.
Next Installment: What We Do About It
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