Looks like America is finally getting a clearer picture of what is going on in Iraq. According to an AP poll, confidence in the stability of Iraq's future is fading. Many secondary members of the Republican coalition are turing against Bush's blunder.
Fewer than half, 47 percent, think it's likely Iraq will be able to establish a stable government, according to the poll conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs. A little more than half, 51 percent, said they think it's not likely.
In April, 55 percent said they believed a stable, Democratic government probably would be established in Iraq, and 44 percent thought it was not likely.
Unlike a presidential horse race poll, the trend in this poll will probably be more steady. In the absence of "big news", the stream of negative reports will slowly turn more and more people off to the Iraq war.
Look at the groups leaving Bush first,
Those most likely to have lost faith in the chances of a stable, democratic Iraq are those with college degrees, Southerners, city-dwellers, homeowners, Catholics, independents and Democrats.
Catholics, independents, and southerners (VA, AK, FL) are exactly the type of people we need to win, if we want to win elections.
Bush's approval rating numbers haven't moved, yet. People are still holding out hope for democracy, and are not yet ready to blame the president. If/when Iraq goes badly, these numbers will follow.
We have an opportunity to appeal to a new demographic, the nascent anti-invasion population. Howard Dean is the only politician, who can credibly captialize on the anger. Anyone else is only a Johnny-come-lately.