The US has lost the War in Iraq and is leaving the country.
That's the reality of the situation. We're leaving. It's not apparent from the rhetoric, but the Administrations and CPA rhetoric makes it all too clear.
The US has lost and is bugging out. But, Bush can win with this strategy, and win in a landslide.
Scenario:
Bush slowly replaces US troops with Iraqi Army troops. Sure they'll be ineffective, dangerous, and targets for the resistance, but that's the point.
We remove most troops under the guise of "Mission Accomplished" to great fanfare timed to coincide with the Election. Bush attends many triumphal marches, congratulates troops on Job Well Done.
Iraq goes to shit, but what do we care? That's been the plan all along, anyway. Our minions will do our bidding, via our puppets and the Iraqi Army. Halliburton's contracts will remain, and everybody will be happy.
Except for the Iraqis, but they don't matter in this equation.
We have lost the War, but Bush could win in a landslide with this strategy. If people see him "bringing the boys home" as a successful leader, they will flock to re-elect him. All he has to do is remain positive, and keep too many more GIs from getting killed, and he's golden.