Why are republicans worried about Washington?
Check the current recount numbers
I took a snapshot at Noon PST.
As of now, the recount has added 144 votes to Dems and 190 votes to Repubs. This brings the Repub lead to 42 (original lead) + 46 (gain in recount)= 88.
If you look at the recount pattern, nearly 0.061 percentage of votes are added to Dems, and nearly 0.059 percentage for Repubs. Both percentages are so close that we should be able to assume this to be the trend and assume 0.06% as the increment for the rest of the counties. This should be true to a single digit extrapolation.
Calculations
- 144 additional Dem on the base of 235,794 = 0.061 %
- 190 additional Repub on the base of 322,677 = 0.059%
Now, the remaining counties are Dem heavy, and applying the pattern on them gives an additional 682 votes to Dems and an additional 630 votes to Repubs. That's an additional 52 for Dems.
That still does not bring Dems to victory. It reduces the republican margin from 88 (current) to 36.
More below the jump:
This is where the 561 King county votes come in picture. These votes are not spoilt, but lack matching signature. And the reason they lack matching signature is because the signatures were not loaded in county systems. King county has gone 59-41 for Dems. Assuming that half of these votes are countable. That gives Dems 165 and Repubs 115.
Calculations:
- Total 561 * 0.59 / 2 for Dems = 165
- Total 561 * 0.41 / 2 for Repubs = 115
This takes Dems over the edge and to the governership. A victory for the Dems by 14 votes.
Of course, the repubs will fight hard. If they can disqualify these votes, they have won. The question is "will we fight hard too?"
So, let's remember the Al Gore Mantra.
All votes must be counted, and every vote must count.