A vital question this year... run left? Move to the center? Does Kerry gain or lose by these maneuvers? Bush has nowhere to run, of course, but the Borg don't think like we do. Now, whatever the problems with a Rasmussen survey, at least they've made the attempt to look:
46% of Swing Voters are Politically Moderate; 59% Not Affiliated with Republicans or Democrats
Election 2004 Uncommitted Voters
Conservative 30%
Moderate 46%
Liberal 22%
RasmussenReports.com
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Election 2004
Uncommitted Voters
Republican 19%
Democrat 29%
Other 59%
RasmussenReports.com
March 14, 2004--One of the unusual characteristics of Election 2004 is the very small number of undecided or uncommitted voters this early in the process. More than 90% of voters say they plan to vote for either President George W. Bush or Senator John F. Kerry. The remainder are split between those who say they will vote for a third party candidate and those who are not sure.
There are more Repubs than one would think in this survey. May there be ever more. But most of the small group (all surveys say only 10-15% have not yet made up their minds)are indies. And most swings are moderate. But these are the citizens who will vote, not the half of the country who won't.
In the week ending March 13, Rasmussen Reports conducted telephone survey interviews with 342 Likely Voters who are not committed to either Bush or Kerry at this point. The following is a brief profile of these voters.
- Thirty-eight percent (38%) approve of the job President Bush is doing while 60% do not.
- Forty-eight percent (48%) are men, 52% women.
- Thirty-eight percent (38%) are under 40; 39% are 40-64; and 13% are over 65.
- Seventy-four percent (74%) are white.
- Forty-nine percent (49%) own at least $5,000 worth of stocks, bonds, or mutual funds.
- Thirty percent (30%) are conservative; 46% moderate; and 22% liberal.
- At this point, if they are forced to choose between Bush and Kerry, 23% choose Bush, 35% Kerry, and 42% cannot choose.
- Among this narrow slice of voters, 46% say the President is conservative while 24% say moderate. Thirty-five percent (35%) of that same group identifies Kerry as liberal, while 36% say moderate.
Rasmussen Reports has also provided data on those soft supporters who say that they will vote for Bush or Kerry, but could change their mind.
The national telephone survey of 342 Uncommitted Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 7-13, 2004. The margin of sampling error is +/- 6 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.