Open seats are interesting, but they're often so safe (because of redistricting) that they have little or no chance of changing parties. I mean, there are districts out there (often black- or Latino-majority) that are literally...LITERALLY...90% Democratic. And there are heavily white suburban or rural districts out there, in places like Nebraska, Idaho, and Kansas, that are literally 70-90% Republican. It's so annoying. And because of it, there are only THREE open seats so far that stand a strong chance of changing parties...THREE. See my previous post.
The notable incumbent races are more fun, because there's more mudslinging, more competition, more $ spent, more controversy, more popcorn to eat. Read below the jump...
I'm basing my analysis partially on Larry Sabato here (no, don't flame me!), because I can't find anyone else with a better rundown of these races.
Texas 22 (Suburbs around Houston)
Tom DeLay - R
Yep. Is any race going to be more entertaining than this one? Try to name one if you can. A scandal-plagued, overwhelmingly unpopular 11-term incumbent in a very red district who got only 55% last year against an underfunded DFA opponent is facing a former Congressman he redistricted out of a job. I can hardly stand the excitement!!!! Former Rep. Nick Lampson, a moderate Democrat, is running and has to be considered the scariest opponent DeLay could face. Lampson came closer than many expected to winning reelection last year despite that horrible DeLaymander, and now he's coming back to fight the Hammer in a district where 1 in 5 district residents had Lampson as their Congressman before the new map. Lampson is not as progressive as Richard Morrison, but unlike Morrison he stands a very good chance of winning. He knows this district and he's ready for a fight. Lean ever-so-slightly GOP, just because of the district's heavy Republican bent, but it's almost a Toss-Up given DeLay's unpopularity and Lampson's potential strength.
Pennsylvania 6 (Suburbs around Philadelphia)
Jim Gerlach - R
This is one of the most competitive districts in the nation (the most competitive in Pennsylvania), and Gerlach has yet to do better than a 51-49 win. In both 2002 and 2004, that's what he got. With a little more funding, Lois Murphy could have beaten him last year. Gerlach is way to the right of the district. Lean GOP, just barely.
Pennsylvania 8 (Suburbs north of Philadelphia)
Mike Fitzpatrick - R
Like Gerlach, Fitzpatrick is a wingnut out of touch with his district, which is Dem-leaning and very pro-choice. Ginny Schrader, a Kos darling, lost a close race because of $. But all we need is a well-financed candidate to wake up the people of this district. Lean GOP.
Indiana 9 (Southeast Indiana)
Mike Sodrel - R
I didn't expect this to be competitive, but Baron Hill, the Blue Dog Democrat barely ousted by Sodrel last year, is back, and he wants a good fight. The district, though Bush-friendly, is traditionally one of conservative Democrats, like Tim Roemer's old district was in northern Indiana. Move over, John Hostettler, your neighbor's in for some tough campaigning. Many believe that Hill lost last year only because of the big GOP swing in Indiana and because he took the race for granted. Lean GOP, barely.
Illinois 8 (Northwest suburbs of Chicago)
Melissa Bean - D
Like Sodrel, Bean narrowly ousted an incumbent in a major upset last year. But unlike Sodrel, she faces a politically unfriendly district, one of the most Republican and wealthiest in my new home state. Lean Dem, based on that magic weapon, incumbency.
Connecticut 2 (Eastern Connecticut)
Rob Simmons - R
Simmons won a tight reelection in 2004, and this new round of base closures will badly hurt the 2nd's economy. 2002 challenger Jim Courtney is running. Lean GOP, slightly.
Connecticut 4 (Southwest Connecticut)
Chris Shays - R
Like Simmons, Shays won a tight reelection (52-48...OUCH!). He also faces a Democratic district in what may well be a Democratic year. Lean GOP, slightly.
Georgia 8 (Middle Georgia)
Jim Marshall - D
Oy. You all know how much I love mid-decade GOP gerrymanders, don't you? Yep, Marshall's the main target of this new, "nice and pretty" map. His new district is dramatically different from the old 3rd, now stretching from the southern suburbs of Atlanta to deep in the heart of southern Georgia. It went from 52% Bush to 58% Bush with the new lines, but let's remember that Marshall has a reputation as a conservative Democrat and a knack for winning red areas. He won in a landslide last year. However, there is a wildcard...former Rep. Mac Collins, who ran for Senate last year and lost the primary to Johnny Isakson. Collins' home is in the new 8th...will he go after the Macon Democrat? It's likely. Lean Dem, slightly.
Louisiana 3 (Southeast Louisiana)
Charlie Melancon - D
As many of you recall, Melancon squeaked into office in the December 2004 runoff against heir apparent Tauzin III. But the district is GOP-leaning, and Republicans are sure to go after the Cajun sugar farmer. Lean Dem, because of...say it with me, incumbency.
Colorado 3 (Western Colorado)
John Salazar - D
Much of breathtakingly beautiful western Colorado rests in this very rural, GOP-leaning district won by moderate Democrat John Salazar (possibly off the coattails of his brother, who won Colorado's open Senate seat on the same night). Republicans are going after him, but I have a hunch that says - Likely Dem. I may be wrong, so I'll say Lean Dem for now.
New Mexico 1 (Albuquerque and vicinity)
Heather Wilson - R
Wilson is a perennial target, but so far she's managed narrow wins every time. But this district is very tightly balanced, even won by Al Gore barely, and the popular Attorney General of New Mexico, Patricia Madrid, is considering a run. If she entered the race, it might be a toss-up. For now, Lean GOP.
Louisiana 7 (Southwest Louisiana)
Charles Boustany - R
I considered this one out of reach after Boustany's larger-than-expected 55-45 win in December, but like Georgia 8 and Indiana 9 a retired incumbent may come back. Democrat Chris John, the almost-Senator last year, is considered a possibility to run for his old seat. If he faced Boustany, it would be a toss-up or even lean Dem. For now, Likely GOP, because John isn't in the race yet.
Texas 17 (Exurban Middle Texas)
Chet Edwards - D
Welcome to our lovely President's home district, a rural swathe of nowhere-ness full of cows and conservatives. Somehow, Chet Edwards managed to survive the DeLaymander, but barely. So he is a prime target for Repigs next year. I say Likely Dem because his new constituents will have had two years to get used to him. But I could be very much mistaken. I just think that what with Bush's unpopularity nationwide, it will have effects even in the reddest of places, like Waco, Texas.