Okay, let's get it out of the way: All polls suck. And the SCLM's framing of polls sucks even worse.
In a WaPo poll released today, 52% of Americans say they disapprove of how Bush is handling Social Security.
The poll also finds that more Americans oppose privatization today than four years ago, and that fewer think the system is in crisis.
Bad news for Bush, right? Not in the eyes of the WaPo--here's the lede of their story:
President Bush has wide support for his argument that Social Security needs dramatic change to meet its obligations to future retirees, but there remains considerable skepticism about his plan to let people invest a portion of their contribution to the program in the stock market, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Despite the qualifications, the WaPo frames its poll as confirming the basic premise of Bush's case: that Social Security is broke and needs a "dramatic" fix. Karl Rove should be proud....
How we fight the hype is below the fold.
As presented in the on-line version of the story, poll numbers would indeed seem to suggest that BushCo have made inroads in convincing the American public that Social Security is in trouble:
- 74% "think the system faces either major problems or is in crisis-- as Bush has asserted."
- 53% support "the concept of letting people control some of their contributions to invest in the market"
What the WaPo story also doesn't note is that these figures are actually worse for Bush than results from 1998 and 2000. Graphics in the print edition (and "historical data" available via a link on the online story) show:
- the percent saying the system is "in crisis," to use BushCo's favored terminology, has actually declined from 34% in a Jan. 1998 poll to 25% today
- six years ago, 80% thought Social Security was in crisis or had major problems, compared to 74% today
- opposition to privatization has risen from 31% in May 2000 to 44% today
- support for privatization has actually declined, from 64% to 53%. Much of the decline apparently came-surprise!-in late 2000 and early 2001, as the market was tanking
And the really big news: when asked if "you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling Social Security?"
52% disapproved, and only 38% approved. This stat is nowhere in the story; you have to burrow through their polling data to find it (link below).
Dems need to ignore the WaPo's framing and point to that 52% disapproval rating and the historical trends, which work against--not for--Bush.
Another tidbit from the current poll data in which Dems can take heart:
- 62% "would not participate in such a program if it meant their retirement income would go up or down depending on the performance of their stock picks -- which is the essence of Bush's plan."
WaPo story (requires subscription) is here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A17151-2004Dec21.html
Link to their data for current poll is here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/polls/2004351/index.html