Six and a quarter billion doesn't sound like much if you're talking about Bill Gate's fortune, spending on the Iraq War or the Federal budget deficit.
If we rephrase it as six and a quarter thousand million we still don't get a mental picture that accurately describes the number of human beings struggling to survive on this planet.
Back in 1968 a fellow named
Paul Erhlich wrote a book from which this essay draws its title.
Like many authors, Mr. Erhlich made the mistake of predicting when the dire consequences of his research would occur and he turned out to be wrong...about his predictions, not the consequences.
You can still buy the book but broad interest in the subject has evaporated. Conventional wisdom these days is that the population problem will eventually sort itself out.
Mr. Erhlich has come out with a sequel to his original work that point's out some examples of how dependent the current global population is on cheap abundant energy.
Our current global culture is based on the ability to move food to where it's needed in a cost-effective manner.
With this as a given, let us take another look at the `tri-fecta' of Globalization, Peak Oil and the huge Trade Deficit.
The true threat of peak oil is the law of diminishing returns. At some point in the not too distant future it will require more energy to extract what oil remains than the energy that oil will produce.
Long before that happens the energy to transport this expensive oil to market will make it cost prohibitive.
Contrary to Mr. Erhlich's predictions the world's production of food has kept well ahead of demand...
Just keep in mind that this feat was accomplished with cheap, abundant energy and petroleum based fertilizers.
Beginning to see the problem?
When energy is no longer cheap or abundant this kind of food production will cease.
Why connect population increase to the Peak Oil problem? As the number of users drive up demand the faster the supply dwindles.
If there were a way to radically decrease the number of users the supply would last longer.
At the current rate of growth the world's population will number nine and a half billion by 2050. Some scientists predict that we will run out of fossil fuels in the next fifty years due in no small part to this increased demand.
The US consumes 80% of the world's fossil fuels.
At this point in the diary I'm required by dKos law to warn you to put on your double thick, screw down tin foil hat:
If oil = energy and energy = power how far do you think the people that control the world's oil will go to retain their power?
Let's take a look at what's been happening not only here in the US but around the world.
Globalization has eviscerated our manufacturing base. The white collar types among us are probably happy to see this kind of work go but you have to keep in mind that is you don't `participate' in the production of goods it's damn near impossible to innovate in those areas.
The people who do the work create the innovations. I can't count the number of times I've had to take a blueprint back to the engineer and patiently explain that the part was unproducable as drawn...and had to explain why as well.
It's no coincidence that the world's leading companies are establishing design centers in the countries where their products are being produced, while closing their design centers here. {IBM, Intel & Microsoft are but a few examples}
The `process' of off-shoring started some twenty-five years ago and continues to this day with the off-shoring of anything that can possibly be done elsewhere cheaper.
Thus as our population continues to grow the number of employment opportunities shrinks.
Our currency is being propped up by a huge influx of foreign investment. If not for this bizarre practice our currency would be virtually worthless.
The term `trade' is quite literal. When people trade with you they expect to get at least equal value back...how the hell can we give back equal value when we don't make or do anything ourselves?
We are giving people worthless paper in exchange for hard goods, hard goods that we can no longer make ourselves.
Currently seventy percent of the world's production output flows through the US Treasury and we give them...interest-bearing bonds, bonds backed by...nothing!
Wholesale food prices are so (artificially) cheap that we could ship our entire production for the next century and not put a dent in what we owe.
Then there's the creation of the EU and with it, the Euro.
Is this also a coincidence? How lucky would the affluent be to have an alternative to the dollar should something dire happen?
Imagine the panic if energy prices spiked and as a result the dollar was revalued to...well, worthlessness.
Our nation has been converted into one big shopping mall. When the consumer can no longer afford to go shopping because their discretionary income was vaporized by a stiff increase in energy costs our economy will shut down.
We won't have the money to buy stuff and we don't have the ability to make our own, and won't for a very long time.
Can you put two and two together? The die off will be staggering...and totally unnecessary.
So I guess what I'm asking here is if we're being set up for a fall?
It sure looks that way and more than a few of our politicians were in on it, they had to be to let this situation go on for twenty-five years and not lift a finger to stop it.
Are the powers that be capable of killing a few billion of us off to maintain the status quo?
Absolutely!
Consider the economic devastation wrought by the world's multinational corporations over the past twenty-five years and the steady progression of events leading up to the pending Tri-fecta of Doom.
Where would we be today if our corporations/government pursued a responsible energy policy twenty-five years ago when this problem first surfaced...Peak oil isn't new.
Consider the fact that the newest oil refinery in the US was built in...1973, and tell me they didn't know.
When a dearth of oil makes it no longer possible to feed the world, a significant portion of the world's population, mostly poor, will die.
And the rat race will start all over again...with new and far more oppressive rules.
You can hope for a `soft' landing but it looks like Mr. Bernanke is going to get his chance to drop worthless hundred dollar bills from helicopters after all.
Thanks for letting me inside your head,
Gegner