2004 Delegate Race
13 November 2003
Notes the intent of this exercise is to determine the delegate count at the end of the large group of primaries on February 3. Totals at this point should go a long way toward determining which candidates might have the momentum and money to survive until Super Tuesday. Where possible, I've used the latest polling data in determining how the delegates are distributed. Democratic party rules dictate that candidates are distributed proportionately based on popular vote. However, this doesn't mean there's a general 1-1 mapping of polling percentage to delegate percentage. Historical votes tend to be a little more lopsided than pre-election polls would indicate. Also, DNC rules mandate a "floor" of 15% of the vote to acquire delegates. In states where polling is old, I've swallowed my assumptions and put the numbers up pretty much as the old polls would dictate.
In some few states, I have no polling information. In these cases, I've tried to extrapolate from past trends or neighboring states. For example, I made North Dakota over in the image of Iowa (sorry Dakotans).
19 January
Iowa, 45 delegates+
Gephardt 20
Dean 16
Kerry 09
27 January
New Hampshire, 22 delegates
Dean 14
Kerry 08
3 February
Arizona, 55 Delegates
Dean 32
Clark 23
Delaware, 15 delegates
Lieberman 07
Dean 05
Gephardt 03
Missouri, 74 delegates
Gephardt 37
Dean 22
Kerry 15
New Mexico, 26 delegates+
Dean 12
Lieberman 08
Kerry 06
North Dakota, 14 delegates#+
Gephardt 06
Dean 04
Kerry 02
Oklahoma, 40 delegates#
Gephardt 18
Dean 15
Kerry 07
South Carolina, 45 delegates
Clark 29
Edwards 16
Predicted Total after 3 February
Dean 120 (111)
Gephardt 078 (078)
Clark 052 (043)
Kerry 047 (059)
Lieberman 015 (028)
Edwards 016 (017)
+caucus state
# based on very old polls or a lot of guesswork
#+ both of the above
Clark slips ahead of Kerry this week, but the overall positions are little changed. However, if you look at the state by state values, you'll see some big differences this week. Why? A few states, like Iowa and Delware had new polls. And then there's my stupidity. I've been misreading a DNC ruling from the outset. My thanks to Adam in MA for setting me straight.
South Carolina and New Mexico get the award for "states in flux." Either of these states could change radically with the nudge of a percentage point or two.