...and this time it's
Newsweek (not reported at Polling Report yet).
Bush 42 (45)
Kerry 46 (43)
Nader 4 (5)
Undec. 8 (7)
Without Nader, Kerry leads Bush 50 - 43.
Meanwhile, just 36 percent of those polled say they are satisfied with "the way things are going in this country." More than half (59 percent) say they are dissatisfied. And while President George W. Bush's job approval rating remains steady at 49 percent, where it has been since the end of January, the president's favorability ratings are lower than they've ever been. Forty-eight percent of those polled view Bush favorably, down four points over last month. Kerry's ratings remain unchanged at 51 percent favorable.
Just another poll, perhaps, but those fundamentals are looking poorly for Junior, especially the direction of the country.
For another view on the importance of job approval numbers, this time from the right, check Real Clear Politics, which Kos steered me to earlier today.
As a crude measuring stick for the state of the presidential race, an over 50% job approval for the President should translate into a Bush victory. A 45% - 49% job approval will mean a close race, but I would give President Bush the advantage. A 40% - 44% job approval for the President would translate into a dead heat race, and below 40% and you would have to give the advantage to Kerry.
We both agree that the job approval numbers at this point in time matter the most. Over 50% is indeed favorable to an incumbent, but less than that is more unclear than stated. Less than 45% is advantage Kerry in my book. Incumbents should be doing better than that if they expect to win. Anything else is sheer speculation, but that won't stop us, not to worry.
Wait for the full poll to be on Polling Report before really tearing into it, but the voting public out there is not thrilled with what's going on around them.
Update [2004-4-10 15:41:31 by DemFromCT]:
More on job approval:
[editor's note, by DemFromCT] More on
job approval:
In every reelection attempt by a president since the Gallup Organization Inc. developed modern polling techniques, the incumbent's job approval rating — a crystallization of Americans' attitudes about the country's direction — has been perhaps the single most important variable in the outcome.
Since the mid-1950s, every incumbent with an approval rating comfortably above 50% in the election year has easily won a second term: Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956, Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Richard M. Nixon in 1972, Reagan in 1984 and Clinton in 1996.
Those races also showed remarkable stability, with the incumbent moving out to a lead early in Gallup polls and generally maintaining it.
More volatility was evident in the reelection campaigns of Gerald Ford in 1976, Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992, all of whom lost. Approval ratings for each fell below 50% in the months before the elections. And polling found voters ricocheting between their qualms about the challenger and dissatisfaction with the incumbent.
A similar roller-coaster pattern may emerge in this year's race, with recent polls showing voters alternately tilting toward Bush or Kerry.
"The first question people ask is: 'Are we happy with this guy in office?' " said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, an independent polling organization. "The second question is: 'Is the other guy acceptable?' The two questions feed off each other. A very bad president will make people want to take a chance on the challenger."
Like Bush today, Carter, the elder Bush and, to a lesser extent, Ford made sustained efforts to raise voter doubts about their rivals' competence.
Ford portrayed Carter as an inconsistent flip-flopper who tailored his answers to his audience. Four years later, as a beleaguered embattled incumbent, Carter painted Reagan as an inexperienced, "radical" conservative ideologue who would dismantle the social safety net and heighten the risk of nuclear war. In 1992, the elder Bush assailed Clinton on virtually all fronts, from his honesty and his efforts to avoid the military draft to his record as Arkansas' governor and his readiness to handle a world crisis.
It helps to understand the stages in a voter's mindset that Kerry has to deal with before his numbers can go up. And the twin news stories aren't helping Junior.
As Dick Morris says, if you want to be a war President, you have to be winning the war.