I've noted the great interest here on Kos on our upcoming election in Britain, and thought I would put together a little briefing on what to look out for those of taking an interest in British politics for the first time.
In this election we will elect 646 Members of Parliament, with the Prime Minister being the leader of the party which commands a majority of them. These members are elected by the first past the post system in individual districts known as constituencies here. Most of the constituencies are considered safe, so the parties will focus their efforts in the 100 or so which will decide the election, generally known as 'marginals'. Below the fold, I've written a bit about which groups and issues will decide the election in the different sorts of marginals we have in our two-and-a-half party system, and listed a small sample of key marginals of each type which might help you if you're following election night coverage on C-Span or BBC World.
Labour have won two landslide election victories in a row, with almost two-thirds of the seats in Parliament on just over 40% of the vote each time. The Tories have had their two worst election results since 1832, and the LibDems have trodden water in the high teens % since the early 90s, but have gained seats due to ruthless targeting of resources. In the past three elections, Labour and LibDem voters have tended to support for the other party in constituencies where their first choice party is weak, such was the hatred of the Tories among centre-left voters. This is expected to be a much weaker factor this time, as Blair is hated by an awful lot of people in this country. The Tories are more or less where they were at the last election in current opinion polls, and there seems to be a switch of ~5% from Labour to the LibDems.
Election participation, traditionally in the 70s to low 80s % since the late 19th Century, is falling fast and was only 59% in 2001. Expect it to be lower, although probably not much lower, this time. The turnout is lowest and has fallen most steeply in poor white areas (either inner city or small town rustbelt) and among Black Britons, both traditional core Labour groups, although its also low in some wealthy inner city areas like the one I live in! Asians (which in Britain means South Asian, not Chinese!) tend to be loyal, consistent, voters. Muslims, in particular, are reliable voters even in the most depressed and transient inner city areas.
Constituencies have an average population of 100,000.
Most seats are 'safe' seats - people know who is going to win before the starting gun is fired. Labour's safe seats are concentrated in the Inner Cities and rust belt towns, the Tories' are in the rural areas an a few of the really wealthy suburban seats plus the plusher parts of Inner London, the LibDems' (for the first time in 80 years it is possible to speak this way) in some areas which are socially liberal but rich, and in isolated rural areas seaside towns which are quite poor but never had the industrial base to develop strong Labour support.
Add to this the Scottish Nationalist Party, broadly left of centre and probably parallel to the Parti Quebecois in Canada minus the language issue, who will be hoping to pick up a few seats from Labour in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party who are currently wracked by internal dissension and will at best add 1 to their current total of 4 seats in rural, Welsh-speaking parts of Wales.
There are then three types of marginals: Labour-Tory (the largest group), LibDem-Tory and LibDem-Labour.
Labour-Tory marginals are concentrated in the suburbs and the larger market towns. Many of them would have been considered safe Tory seats in the past before the Tory Party took political cocaine in the '90s and alienated itself from suburban Britain. Away from the South East of England and its large middle-class ethnic minority population, these seats tend to be very White. A lot of these places would be considered safe Republican territory in the US, which merely goes to show how different the political universes we inhabit are. Religion and 'values' will not feature in the election in these places where at most 10% of the population attend church and a hell of a lot of those will be mainstream liberal Anglicans. Gay marriage will not feature in the election in these places. The Tory leader has tried to raise abortion as an election issue, but even that was a bit of niche marketing aimed at churchgoing Catholics (all of 2% of the population) and Evangelicals (even less) both of whom bought into New Labour in a big way, especially over issues like trade justice.
Instead the election in these places will be decided on - for Labour: whether they have convinced people that schools and hospitals have really improved under their watch. They seem to have convinced on the former, the latter probably less so. For the Tories: can they exploit middle-class fears of crime and increased levels of immigration? They probably have exploited the immigration issue quite successfully, on the more complex issue of crime they are less convincing.
On election night, the Tories will have to be doing very badly not to take out Melanie Chisholm in Welwyn Hatfield, winning Jacqui Smith's seat in Redditch would mark a return to the sort of wealthy suburban seat they should never have lost, and them winning the socially mixed Northern rustbelt seat of Colne Valley from Kali Mountford would likely be the harbinger of a Hung Parliament.
There didn't seem to be many LibDem-Labour marginals until recently, largely upscale but leftwing constituencies in the big cities or university towns. The LibDems have hammered hard on tuition fees and the war and Labour's policies on detention without trial and non-jury trials did not play well in the sort of seat packed with Amnesty supporters. The LibDems would be disappointed if high profile London Assembly Member Lynne Featherstone didn't take the Museli Belt seat of Hornsey and Wood Green from Barbara Roche in what is likely to be one of the elections nastier fights. Taking Cambridge from Ann Campbell would represent solid progress for them, and if they managed to take out former Cabinet Minister Andrew Smith in Oxford East they would be over the moon.
A different political battle will be fought in a handful of Northern seats where the LibDems have been strong for historical reasons. Rochdale and Oldham East, both riven with racial tensions and both a significant British National Party presence and large Muslim populations, will see ugly fights. If the LibDems take both, they can look forward to a good night. If Labour hold both, they can breathe easy in the third type of Lib-Lab marginal.
It is likely that the Muslim vote will defect en masse from Labour and possible that a large chunk of it will go to the LibDems. If so, Labour can expect a few nasty surprises in seats like Luton South, Manchester Gorton and Birmingham Sparkbrook. Three years ago, these safe Labour seats wouldn't have been on anyone's radar map, but Iraq changed everything and any seat with a big Muslim population will be difficult to call. They are long shots for the LibDems, but I don't think they've started spending money in them for no reason either.
The most difficult set of seats to call will be the LibDem-Tory marginals, in an election which seems to be viewed as a referendum on Blair. These are largely in Southern England, semi-rural and with few big city problems but a lot of low pay and seasonal work. Classic small town England. The LibDems will seek to hammer away on the war (unpopular in these sorts of places too) and public services, the Tories will seek to exploit the LibDems' position on the left of the British political spectrum. Expect lots of "the LibDems will encourage asylum seekers to invade the country and take drugs with New Age Travellers" type leaflets. The Tories have high hopes of taking out Brian Cotter in Weston-super-Mare, where claiming the scalp of Sandra Gidley in Romsey would represent real progress. For the LibDems long-time Tory Minister Virginia Bottomley's now vacant London commuter seat of Surrey South West is the sort of place they need to take if they are to continue to make progress, but the real prize would be to take the scalp of one of three vulnerable big name Tory shadow Ministers David Davis (Haltemprice and Howden), Teresa May (Maidenhead) or Oliver Letwin (Dorset North). Letwin is the safest and 'wettest' (think Rockerfeller Republican), pro-hanging Bush-sycophant Davis the most vulnerable and the sort of Tory most repugnant to the average Kossack.
In Scottish National Party-Labour marginals, much will depend on whether Alex Salmond's return to the SNP leadership can restore lost crediblity to the party. Labour will lose votes in working-class seats in Scotland. The question is whether the SNP will gather them all up or whether they will split among the SNP, LibDems and Scottish Socialist Party. If the SNP don't win Dundee East and Ochil & South Perthshire, Salmond might be in trouble, Perth and North Perthshire would represent real progress, Kilmarnock and Loudoun a real breakthrough of the type the SNP managed in 1974.
A variety of smaller parties will fight the election. The most important of these are the populist-right anti-EU UK Independence Party, the neo-Nazi British National Party, the Greens and the hard left Respect Coalition. None of them have hopes of winning a seat, except in one special case outlined below. There will also be the usual clatter of candidates from the likes of the Monster Raving Loony Party, the Noise Abatement Party and perhaps even Miss Whiplash will make an election comeback.
Northern Ireland (my home turf) will also be very interesting but a parallel political universe to Great Britain. One I could elaborate on if people really want... but expect Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionist Party to wipe out or come close to wiping out David Trimble's Ulster Unionist Party, and Sinn Fein to maintain their lead over the SDLP, but not achieve the crushing victory which seemed likely before Christmas.
Finally, there's the other parallel political universe of Bethnal Green and Bow. An East London seat clinging to the edge of London's financial district, this constituency features extremes of wealth and poverty, a highly transient population the largest Muslim community in the country. Local MP Oona King fought racist prejudice towards her from sections of the Muslim community (she is half black-American and half-Jewish) and seemed to have made herself popular with her constituents, winning comfortably in 2001 after a shaky first election in 1997. However, King is an ambitious careerist, and in Britain Ministers who vote against the government are obliged to resign, so King swallowed her principles and backed the War. Despite taking a hardline anti-Israel stance in an attempt to build bridges since, much of the powerful and well organised local Bangladeshi community have defected from Labour. At the same time, left wing Labour MP George Galloway had been expelled from the Party and seen his Glasgow seat abolished in a boundary review. He saw a golden opportunity to stay in Parliament and decamped to London to fight Bethnal Green and Bow under the banner of the Respect Coalition, which he leads. A 'colourful and controversial' figure (hey, I don't want to be sued) Galloway is most famous for praising Saddam Hussein for his 'courage, strength and indefatigability' in Baghdad after Gulf War.
Respect did well here in London Assembly elections last year, although not quite well enough to win. They will flood activists here from all over Britain, which Labour don't have the luxury of doing although King probably starts slight favourite. This will be a very, very, very, nasty election campaign. Respect will find it easier to motivate their base, but Labour will be trying to convince the seat's growing population of merchant bankers to vote tactically (rather than Tory) to stop Galloway. The question for Respect will be whether Galloway is too extreme and divisive a figure, who will drive moderate anti-War votes to the LibDems and Greens.
This one seat won't determine the colour of the government but it is particularly fascinating, and if King loses it will be pretty humiliating for Blair.
Hope this was of interest.