There's a lot of history to be made in the next two weeks, and things are remarkably fluid at the moment, but one real surprise is the reluctant renaissance or Kerry Nation, if one can believe there is such a thing. It was only two weeks ago that JFK 2.0 was written off entirely, but now he's back in the four-way in Iowa, and surging into a statistical 2nd with Clark in New Hampshire. Fascinating.
Clearly, Clark and Kerry are generally battling for the same constituency...vets, seniors, moderates, paleoliberals (in fact, I would say, those precisely in the mold of George McGovern). But I wonder if, in the weeks to come, like men with the same ideals who come to blows (think Bucky Bleichert and Lee Blanchard in James Ellroy's novel) because circumstances demand it, they won't in the end find themselves standing together in arms?
Given how this race is tightening up, maybe a brokered convention is not an impossibility. But regardless of how we get there, there hasn't been much discussion of this eventuality in awhile: Clark/Kerry or Kerry/Clark? Think about it for a moment...
A strong Kerry finish in Iowa (first or close second) gives him quite a bit of movement coming into NH. A first place finish there is not out of the question, though a bunched up second with Clark and Kerry, within single digits of Dean, would seem more plausible.
But after NH, where does Kerry go? The most recent polls from the past two weeks show Dean and Clark tied w/in the MOE in Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma and South Carolina (though the polls are a bit all over the map there). Kerry is far behind. But, should Gephardt drop out, and Lieberman after Feb 3, Kerry could inherit some of that support. Of course Edwards is the wildcard in all this, but it's not implausible to see a threeway jag toward the end with Dean, Clark and Kerry.
In this scenario, should Dean not attain the necessary delegates coming into the convention, I could foresee a shotgun wedding in the works. Or it could happen before all that, tacitly, or actively, in the backroom. Think about it:
- Kerry and Clark have highly compatible (almost indistinguishable) foreign policy platforms. Ditto their tax programs (partial rollbacks, tax relief for middle-class and small business). Ditto their push for alternative energy policy. Ditto most everything else. They would have few differences to reconcile.
- Clark has the better ground operation and would likely exceed Kerry's delegate count, but Kerry would bring superdelegates and additional endorsements, perhaps attaining a majority between them.
- Both men are vets with tremendous national security experience...one within the military, one within Congress. They are Europhiles, intellectuals, travel nuts, both speak several languages.
- One man's from the north, one man's from the south. Regional stability, esp if Clark is at the toip of the ticket.
- Each man openly professes admiration for the other.
In many ways, the two men are natural allies and unlikely combattants. It may be that they'll simply beat the crap out of each other, hastening Dean's rise to the convention podium, but then there's also the alternative.
What do you guys think? I know Kerry has lost a lot of respect around these parts for his arrogant and erratic campaigning, but I'm interested as much in the likelihood or the strength of this ticket as much as I am interested in its potential (un)attractiveness. Please take the poll.