I strongly believe that Edwards is wrong in putting emphasis on a possible win in NY or CA. IMO he doesnt have a chance in either state. By saying that he is cometing there he raises expectations which he will most likely not meet. And this is ALL about expectations.
Conventional wisdom says, that he must win a big state. But this can only be Ohio, hit hard by the loss of manufacturing job and which allows crossover vote (which NY doesnt allow and CA just for independents!).
So what should be his priority and his reasoning for what to expect?
I'd suggest something along the following line:
"John Kerry might have won safely democratic states like NY and CA, but I have won the usually republican state of Georgia and the decisive swing states of Ohio and Minnesota. We need a truly electable candidate, one who can attract independents and even republicans. I have shown today that I can deliver these votes."
If I were John Edwards I would target Georgia, Minnesota and Ohio!!! All of them allow crossover voting.
And if I were serious about attracting Dean supporters I would run a few symbolic tv ads in Vermont where Edwards isnt even on the ballot telling people to vote for the other Washington outsider Dean. The free publicity would have him dominate at least one newscycle and depending on Kerrys reaction more than one.
The media might interprete this as a decision to give up the shot at becoming Kerrys VP. This in turn would make voters think again about supporting Kerry, who thought before that Edwards would end up on the ticket anyway. Sure, its a gamble, but risking it will show that Edwards has guts and make him tougher in the eyes of the SCLM.
What do YOU think?