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From the diaries -- kos)
From the NY Times:
Senator Max Baucus of Montana, a Democrat whose support was essential to the enactment of President Bush's tax cuts in 2001 and his Medicare legislation in 2003, said on Thursday that he would oppose the president's Social Security plan this year.
Mr. Baucus's position will make it difficult for the White House to obtain the Democratic votes necessary for the measure to get through the Senate.
"I seriously doubt I'm going to be the linchpin this time," Mr. Baucus, the senior Democrat on the Finance Committee, said in an interview.
Too bad. Junior's plans for passage are the same as always: GOP solidarity with one or two Dems for 'bipartisanship'. Well, maybe not this time.
The Social Security bill will require 60 votes to cut off debate in the Senate. There are 55 Republican senators, which means that at least five Democratic votes will be needed.
At a meeting at the White House on Thursday morning, Republican leaders emphasized to Mr. Bush the importance of gaining bipartisan support before moving ahead on Social Security. Accounts of the meeting were provided by some of the 18 Republican lawmakers who were there and by some staff assistants who had been filled in by their bosses.
See, the problem is also that the repubs aren't totally united, either.
G.O.P. Divided as Bush Views Social Security
As he begins deciding on details of his plan to add personal investment accounts to Social Security, President Bush is confronting a deep split within his own party over how to proceed.
Two Republican camps are pitted against each other over how big the accounts should be and whether the president should embrace cuts in benefits.
Now, it doesn't help that Bush's political popularity is marginal and his mandate is non-existent:
The American public is deeply ambivalent about President Bush as he begins his second term and his approval rating is lower than any recent two-term presidents, a troubling sign for his ambitious agenda, an Associated Press poll found.
Bush's approval rating is at 49 percent in the AP poll with 49 percent disapproving. His job approval is in the high 40s in several other recent polls -- as low as any job approval rating for a re-elected president at the start of the second term in more than 50 years.
Presidents Reagan and Clinton had job approval ratings near six in 10 just before their inauguration for a second term, according to Gallup polls.
President Nixon's approval was in the 60s right after his 1972 re-election, slid to about 50 percent right before his inauguration and then moved back over 60 percent. President Eisenhower's job approval was in the low 70s just before his second inauguration in 1957.
Bush and Congress are about to tackle ambitious projects -- creating private accounts for those in the Social Security system, overhauling the federal tax code and limiting lawsuit damages. Those tasks will be all the more difficult with the tepid poll ratings for both Bush and Congress.
So, assuming that anything will happen because Bush wants it to happen (or even that he needs it to happen) is problematic, especially with a sadder but wiser Dem party that knows what Bush means by bipartisanship. Junior does have a talent for pulling victory out at the last moment, but past performance is no guarantee of future rewards. There'll be some interesting things to watch in the coming weeks, and phoney Social Security 'reform' is at the top of the list of things to watch.