Happy New Year! I hope it went well for all of you, as it did for me. A new year brings plenty of challenges and opportunities, and we'll have plenty of both to cover in 2005. I apologize for the lack of writing since the beginning of this month, but schoolwork got in the way of my plans (and, quite honestly, my schoolwork is just as important as anything else right now). Still, I have a job to do, and I intend to fufill it. So, without further ado, let's take a look at some of the races that matter in the next two years:
(Article in Extended Entry)
2006 US SENATE
Deleware: Democrat Tom Carper, who won his first term in 2000 with 56% against Senator Bill Roth is running for reelection, and due to his popularity and moderate ideology is a likely winner for another term. Still, it appears that the GOP will not be giving Carper a free ride. State Senator Colin Bonini, a marketing executive from Dover who has served in the State Senate since 1994 is likely to run for Carper's seat. Bonini's name ID is probably quite low (I hadn't even heard of him before he filed papers with the FEC), but based on his experience he would likely be a respectable challenger to Carper, but not enough to beat him. 2004 Lt. Governor nominee Jim Ursomarso, a wealthy auto dealer is apparently considering a bid as well. Stay tuned.
Hawaii: Senator Dan Akaka (D), who has served in the Senate since 1990 is gearing up for another bid, which will likely make this race an off-the-radar one in 2006. While Akaka has generally been in the shadow of his senior Senator, the legendary Dan Inoyue, he still is quite popular amongst Hawaii's voters and should be an easy favorite to win. Should he change his mind and retire, look for GOP Lt. Governor Duke Aiona to run for the seat, along with a host of Democrats.
Michigan: Senator Debbie Stabenow, who outsted then-Senator Spencer Abraham in 2000 by a narrow margin is up for reelection in 2006, and the GOP will be gunning for her. Four potential GOP candidates have emerged, with Congresswoman Candice Miller the top prospect for the GOP. Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard and the DeVos couple (ex-State Chairwoman Betsy and Amway Corporation Founder Dick DeVos) are potential candidates as well. Regardless of who faces Stabenow, this race should be competitive.
New Jersey: With Senator Jon Corzine (D) running for Governor, the 2006 race for Senate is up in the air. Should Corzine (unexpectedly) lose, he would likely run for reelection in 2006 and win, due to his large bank account and popularity amongst New Jerseyans. If, as expected he becomes Governor Corzine, then the plot thickens. Corzine would have to choose his successor, who would serve until January 2007, when the new Senator would be sworn in. Unless, of course, that new Senator is the same person Corzine appointed to the seat, which is why so many Democrats are jockeying for the job opening. Already, Congressman Frank Pallone (NJ-6) is "running" for the seat, actually declaring his interest in the job in a press conference. Other, less agressive candidates who Corzine might appoint are Congressman Bob Menendez (NJ-13), Congressman Rob Andrews (NJ-1) and Congressman Rush Holt (NJ-12). If I were Corzine I would chose Bruce Springsteen (a proud NJ native and activist Democrat) for the seat, if only because nobody will beat "The Boss" in a Senate race, primary or general.
As for the GOP, it will again depend on Corzine. Should he win the Governorship, look for a couple of Republicans to enter, including State Senator Tom Kean, Jr. and Congressman Mike Ferguson (NJ-7). The Star-Ledger confirmed Ferguson's interest today in an article on his campaign contributions. Other potential candidates might include State Senator Diane Allen (who ran for the Senate in 2002, but lost in the GOP primary to Doug Forrester) and State Assemblyman Joe Pennachio. Before his political hari-kari last month, NJ native Bernard Kerik was being touted as a potential US Senate candidate in 2006 as well.
Pennsylvania: Santorum vs. Casey? While it would seem as if Senator Rick Santorum would have a tough race in 2006 no matter who his opponent was, the possibility of him being an underdog exists as well. That possibility rests on one man, and that's State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr. Casey's father (Bob Sr.) was a beloved Governor in the state, who racked up an impressive 68% in his reelection race in 1990 (he carried all but one county), and his son has built on his dad's legacy. After serving as State Auditor from 2001-2005, Casey ran and won in a landslide to become State Treasurer, racking up more votes than any other statwide candidate in history (3,300,000, with 64% of the vote). DSCC leaders are trying to convince Casey to put his plan of becoming Governor on hold for a while, and run against Santorum instead. With his popularity and socially-conservative, economically-liberal views (Casey is pro-life, but also has progressive economic stances), Casey would give Santorum the race of his life, and quite possibly defeat Santorum as well. Certainly he would be a prime example of the "Big Tent" philosophy that Democrats need to accentuate in the upcoming elections.
Texas: Barbara Ann Radnofsky is now an offical candidate, having filed her papers with the FEC to run. Her website is http://www.radnofsky.com , for those who want to know more about her. For those of you new here, I'm a friend of Barbara's, and I'm working hard to get her elected. With Kay Bailey Hutchison running for Governor in 2006, her Senate seat will be competitive, and I think Barbara can win it.
GUBENATORIAL RACES 2006
Arizona: Governor Janet Napolitano (D) has a (very) early lead over her two likeliest GOP challengers, according to a new independent poll done by the Arizona Republic. Against Maricopa County DA Rick Romley, Napolitano leads by 18, and by 19 against Congressman J.D. Hayworth (AZ-5). Napolitano is also subtly leading a charge against a gay marriage ban in Arizona by demanding that the ban's sponsors place it on the 2005 ballot, not the 2006 one (when she would be up for reelection). By saying no, the GOP sponsors are looking awfuly political, and it's hurting them, with the same poll showing 56% of Arizonans opposing the ban.
South Dakota-"Access: Pierre"? With Governor Mike Rounds (R) running for reelection in 2006, Democrats think they may have found the guy to win the Governorship for them-Pat O'Brien, the Host of NBC's "Access: Hollywood" show. O'Brien, a celebrity in South Dakota along with fellow NBCer Tom Brokaw, is considering a bid, and if he ran would likely be a strong candidate. He'd certainly be a colorful one.
If I have time this week, I'll begin outlining potentially competitive House races in 2006, and go further in depth with some of our Senate races as well.