The just released
Gallup poll doesn't have good news for the President.
NEW YORK A new Gallup poll released this morning finds Americans tilting against the war in Iraq, with 50% now saying it was a mistake to send U.S. troops into Iraq, while 48% say it was not. These results show a slight increase since mid-November in the percentage saying it was a mistake.
Last year at this time, 59% said it was worth going to war in Iraq.
The poll, conducted Jan. 7-9, finds 56% of Americans disapproving the way President Bush is handling the situation in Iraq, up from 51% in November. Just 42% approve.
A truly strange phenomenon seems to be developing in the post-election aftermath.
People are beginning to wake up.
This is odd because historically presidents have enjoyed a "honeymoon" period with Americans after their reelection. Their poll numbers tend to receive a significant bounce for at least the first 100 or so days after the election.
While the president's approval rating is up a bit since the election, these numbers suggest that there is real trouble head for him, especially considering Gallup's notoriously right-leaning tendencies.
It makes me wonder what those numbers would look like if a left-leaning organization were doing them. The Post poll released last mid-December that had similar numbers to this, while at the same time Gallup was reporting slightly higher levels of support for the war. I'll be interested to see what they come up with in their next poll.
In an interesting sidelight, the Gallup organization provided results from past polls showing how the public viewed the Vietnam War while it was still underway, contrasting this with the current view that 50% of Americans feel it was a mistake to invade Iraq.
This chart showed that the share of Americans who believed it was mistake to send troops to Vietnam did not reach 50% until August 1968, about four years into the heavy U.S. troop involvement in Vietnam.
In November 1966 that negative view was only endorsed by 31%, and in July 1967 it reached 41%. After reaching 53% in August 1968, it hit 60% in January 1971.
Polls in 1995 and 2000 found about 70% holding this negative view.
Well that's not a good sign. Support for the war appears to be falling at a much faster pace than Vietnam. At this rate, if things don't improve over the next year, the Bushies could be looking the near 40% support levels for the decision to invade--maybe lower.
Of course, there's probably a base for how low the support level could drop that would support the decision even if Bush came out and told them himself it was a bad decision ("What is he talking about? What about all the WMD we found?").
And jeez, in 25 years, opposition to the Vietnam War had only increased by 10%, for god sake.
Anyway, this issue is killing his credibility and sucking up what he calls "his political capital." The more his honesty and judgment are impuned over this debacle in Iraq, the less likely anyone is going to give him the benefit of the doubt on his worthless domestic agenda.
MoralQuestionsBlog.com