Teixeria just got through with some polling analysis of four major polls. It mostly contained very bad news for the administration. Bush's approval rating is above 50% (bearly) but the other data is so bad, its hard to envision him staying above that for very long.
That part of the polls I want talk about is the portions on Iraq, all of which attests to the idea that support for the Iraq adventure has dropped precipitously since the election.
More after the jump.
Gallup
On Iraq, the mistake watch continues: in this latest Gallup poll, the number saying that the US "made a mistake sending troops to Iraq" is now up to 52 percent, continuing the steady rise in this indicator since right before November's election.
Don't declare victory yet, however. The Journal shows that Americans are still a bit conflicted.
Wall Street Jouranl/NBC
On Iraq, 52 percent say "removing Saddam Hussein from power" was worth the costs of the war, compared to 40 percent who say it wasn't (tied for the most negative reading on this question in this poll).
What's my read? My guess would be that the default position of most Americans at this point is that Iraq was worthless without WMD. However, as a matter of principle, Americans are opposed in theory to tyranny, and for a lot of people they are just not comfortable yet saying we should have let the dictator stay. Nevertheless, without being forced by the pollster to defend their democratic street cred, they come down in the negative. Basically a draw right now, but the wind definitely at our backs.
Things just get worse from here, though.
Times/CBS
On Iraq, the number saying we did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq is down to 45 percent, tied for the lowest ever. And for the first time, a majority (53 percent to 41 percent) say that the war in Iraq will not have been worth the costs if we never find weapons of mass destruction there.
A majority (52-41) also believes that it is not possible for the US to create a stable democracy in Iraq and that Bush is making the situation in Iraq today sound better than it really is (55 percent). Just 15 percent believe violence in Iraq will decline after the election and a mere 18 percent believe Bush has a clear plan for dealing with the situation in Iraq (down 20 points from before November's election).
In terms of the war's effect on terrorist threats against the US, less than a fifth (19 percent) think such threats have been decreased, while 33 percent say they've increased and 47 percent think they've stayed the same.
For me the number here that throws me is the 41% that say the war is still worth it without the WMD. That is the floor for Bush, IMHGO. We really can't reasonably assume anything better than that number for his approval rating to fall below--at least not for very long. In the future, we essentially have only about 59% of the eletorate that are in any way willing to even listen to reason from us.
L.A. Times
On Iraq, by 56-39, the public now says the situation in Iraq was not worth going to war over (62-35 among independents). Only 24 percent believe the war in Iraq has stabilized the situation in the Middle East; only 29 percent believe the US is winning the war in Iraq; only 31 percent believe the impending Iraq election will lead to significant improvement in the Iraq security situation; only 23 percent believe the Iraqis ready to govern their country without US help; and just 10 percent think US involvement has helped the US image around the world, compared to 65 percent who believe our image has been hurt.
And here's an interesting result: 47 percent agree that the invasion of Iraq has alienated many in the Muslim world, which will increase the risk of terrorism against the US, compared to 44 percent who say the overthrow of Saddam and installation of a new government will encourage changes in the Middle East that will reduce the risk of terrorism against the US.
Sounds like tough sledding for the administration's current non-WMD-based rationale for the Iraq war.
The LA Times poll polls in even better for us, though I'd enjoy seeing the internals on this one. I still hold to 59% hypothesis, however.
Any thoughts?