A few days ago, I posted a
diary about a paper presented at a global climate change conference called by Tony Blair, that gave details regarding exactly how global warming will affect everything, from global economy, environmental issues, and food production, to wildlife and water availability.
The environmental editor for the online Independent has written another article covering more of the conference, and it includes a bunch of things I think you should see.
First, as before, some pictures, to get you in the mood.
Two images of the Yanamarey glacier show a retreat in only 7 years. The glaciers
in Peru have lost 22% of their area in the last 27 years according to a study
made by the Peruvian Institute of National Resources.
(Photo credit: Greenpeace)
View from the Greenpeace ship Amazon Guardian in the Amazon tour 2000, Purus river, Amazon, Brazil.
(Photo credit: Greenpeace.)
The US based Cargill corporation burns large areas of rainforest to prepare for soya plantations.
(Photo credit: Greenpeace.)
First, how bad are things?
The article starts off mentioning various people who sounded the alarm for global warming, including one very unlikely source:
Finally, the UK head of Shell, Lord Oxburgh, took time out - just before his company reported record profits mainly achieved by selling oil, one of the main causes of the problem - to warn that unless governments take urgent action there "will be a disaster".
So, he's a thinking man... and if he's scared, things are pretty damned bad (you can read more about what he says about global warming and greenhouse gases here).
The feeling at the conference
The author of the article describes the general feeling at the conference. I don't think this is hyperbole:
The conference opened with the Secretary of State for the Environment, Margaret Beckett, warning that "a significant impact" from global warming "is already inevitable". It continued with presentations from top scientists and economists from every continent. These showed that some dangerous climate change was already taking place and that catastrophic events once thought highly improbable were now seen as likely (see panel). Avoiding the worst was technically simple and economically cheap, they said, provided that governments could be persuaded to take immediate action.
About halfway through I realized that I had been here before. In the summer of 1986 the world's leading nuclear experts gathered in Vienna for an inquest into the accident at Chernobyl. The head of the Russian delegation showed a film shot from a helicopter, and we suddenly found ourselves gazing down on the red-hot exposed reactor core.
What everyone here has to understand is that I'm not trying to hit you over the head with this; I know you already believe it, but I can't emphasize enough that our planet is in danger, and we have a crisis on our hands.
Things I didn't cover in the previous diary
The current article has many more details than the article I presented previously.
Professor Mike Schlesinger, of the University of Illinois, reported that the shutdown of the Gulf Stream, once seen as a "low probability event", was now 45 per cent likely this century, and 70 per cent probable by 2200. If it comes sooner rather than later it will be catastrophic for Britain and northern Europe, giving us a climate like Labrador (which shares our latitude) even as the rest of the world heats up: if it comes later it could be beneficial, moderating the worst of the warming.
[snip]
Now a new scientific consensus is emerging - that the warming must be kept below an average increase of two degrees centigrade if catastrophe is to be avoided. This almost certainly involves keeping concentrations of carbon dioxide, the main cause of climate change, below 400 parts per million.
Unfortunately we are almost there, with concentrations exceeding 370ppm and rising, but experts at the conference concluded that we could go briefly above the danger level so long as we brought it down rapidly afterwards. They added that this would involve the world reducing emissions by 50 per cent by 2050 - and rich countries cutting theirs by 30 per cent by 2020.
Summary of the conference, and more new details
I've inserted all of the clickable links in the following excerpts from the article.
WATER WARS
What could happen? Wars break out over diminishing water resources as populations grow and rains fail.
How would this come about? Over 25 per cent more people than at present are expected to live in countries where water is scarce in the future, and global warming will make it worse.
How likely is it? Former UN chief Boutros Boutros-Ghali has long said that the next Middle East war will be fought for water, not oil.
FLOODING
What could happen? London, New York, Tokyo, Bombay, many other cities and vast areas of countries from Britain to
Bangladesh disappear under tens of feet of water, as the seas rise dramatically.
How would this come about? Ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica melt. The Greenland ice sheet would raise sea levels by more than 20ft, the West Antarctic ice sheet by another 15ft.
How likely is it? Scientists used to think it unlikely, but this year reported that the melting of both ice caps had begun. It will take hundreds of years, however, for the seas to rise that much.
RAINFOREST FIRES
What could happen? Famously wet tropical forests, such as those in the Amazon, go up in flames, destroying the world's richest wildlife habitats and releasing vast amounts of carbon dioxide to speed global warming.
How would this come about? Britain's Met Office predicted in 1999 that much of the Amazon will dry out and die within 50 years, making it ready for sparks - from humans or lightning - to set it ablaze.
How likely is it? Very, if the predictions turn out to be right. Already there have been massive forest fires in Borneo and Amazonia, casting palls of highly polluting smoke over vast areas.
THE BIG FREEZE
What could happen? Britain and northern Europe get much colder because the
Gulf Stream, which provides as much heat as the sun in winter, fails.
How would this come about? Melting polar ice sends fresh water into the North Atlantic. The less salty water fails to generate the underwater current which the Gulf Stream needs.
How likely is it? About evens for a Gulf Steam failure this century, said scientists last week.
STARVATION
What could happen? Food production collapses in Africa, for example, as rainfall dries up and droughts increase. As farmland turns to desert, people flee in their millions in search of food.
How would this come about? Rainfall is expected to decrease by up to 60 per cent in winter and 30 per cent in summer in southern Africa this century. By some estimates, Zambia could lose almost all its farms.
How likely is it? Pretty likely unless the world tackles both global warming and Africa's decline. Scientists agree that droughts will increase in a warmer world.
ACID OCEANS
What could happen? The seas will gradually
turn more and more acid. Coral reefs, shellfish and plankton, on which all life depends, will die off. Much of the life of the oceans will become extinct.
How would this come about? The oceans have absorbed half the carbon dioxide, the main cause of global warming, so far emitted by humanity. This forms dilute carbonic acid, which attacks corals and shells.
How likely is it? It is already starting. Scientists warn that the chemistry of the oceans is changing in ways unprecedented for 20 million years. Some predict that the world's coral reefs will die within 35 years.
HURRICANES
What could happen? Hurricanes, typhoons and violent storms proliferate, grow even fiercer, and hit new areas.
Last September's repeated battering of Florida and the Caribbean may be just a foretaste of what is to come, say scientists.
How would this come about? The storms gather their energy from warm seas, and so, as oceans heat up, fiercer ones occur and threaten areas where at present the seas are too cool for such weather.
How likely is it? Scientists are divided over whether storms will get more frequent and whether the process has already begun.
Sarcastic comment alert: Guess Jeb and George will have a few more photo opportunities.
Solutions
Aside from the obvious (quit driving gas-guzzlers, or if you have to drive, think about driving a hybrid), there have been some interesting suggestions regarding decreasing greenhouse gases. One of these ideas is CO2 sequestration, although I think that the first priority should be to just quit driving gas-guzzlers.
Interesting sites
- Check out the website for the British Antarctic Survey, which is where a lot of the research regarding the effect of global warming on the Antarctic ice shelves is going on.
- As always, I think the Greenpeace site has tons of great information and resources. Click around, read stuff, and donate if you can.
- The Sierra Club's "Hummerdinger" site is pretty funny; check out the main Sierra Club site for more serious stuff.
- Neat places to go before they're all screwed up: Antarctica (heh, it's about $10,000 minimum, including plane tickets), Africa (see the animals before they're all gone), Patagonia, for the glaciers...Oh hell... that's all very expensive. Just drive less, and stay on top of the global climate change news.