A new
Field poll was released today showing a significant drop in the approval rating for California Governor Schwarzenegger.
Now in February 2005, his ratings are:
=. Approve Disapprove No Opinion
Adults 54% 35% 11%
Voters 55% 35% 10%
In September 2004, his vratings were:
=. Approve Disapprove No Opinion
65% 35% 13%
More people now believe he caters to "special interests" and non-republicans find his "trustworthiness" only about average for governors.
The tide is shifting.
Throughout most of 2004, about two-thirds of the public said they approved of the job
Schwarzenegger was doing, and only about one-fifth disapproved. Now, in a statewide survey just
completed, the governor's former three to one positive assessment has narrowed to 19 percentage
points (54% approve vs. 35% disapprove) among all adults and 20 percentage points (55%
approve vs. 35% disapprove) among registered voters.
The change is coming from Democrats and non-partisans, while Republicans are staying with him.
During Schwarzenegger's first fourteen months in office, one of the more remarkable aspects of
the public's assessment of him was that partisans of all persuasions held a favorable view. Along
with large majorities of Republicans, pluralities of Democrats and non-partisans approved of
Schwarzenegger's performance in office.
Now, Democrats view the governor's performance more negatively that positively by a 54% to
35% margin. In addition, the views of non-partisans are now more divided, with 48% approving of
his job performance and 38% disapproving, down from a 64% to 25% margin in September.
His ratings are now at historical averages for past Governors, which means he can be beat.
Last September after he had been in office about ten months, Schwarzenegger's job ratings
compared to The Field Poll's record high gubernatorial job performance ratings received by
Republican Earl Warren (1947-1953) and Democrat Jerry Brown (1975-1983) early in their
tenures.
Now, Schwarzenegger's job rating (54% approve and 35% disapprove) has declined to where his
profile is more on a par with the early appraisals given Democrat Gray Davis (1999-2003),
Republican George Deukmejian (1983-1991), Republican Ronald Reagan (1967-1975) and
Democrat Pat Brown (1959-1967).
The "special interests" issue is beginning to haunt him. He is becoming vulnerable on his dealings with big money.
Last fall twice as many voters (56% to 27%) believed that Schwarzenegger was motivated more
by his consideration of the broad public interest than catering to special interests. Now, the public
is somewhat more divided about this, with 46% saying that Schwarzenegger is guided primarily
by what he considers the broad public interest and 38% thinking he caters more to what a few
special interests want.
There is also a "trustworhty" issue.
About half of the public (48%) believes Schwarzenegger is about as trustworthy as his
predecessors. Among adults who feel otherwise, a larger proportion believes he is more
trustworthy by a margin of 29% to 17%. Among registered voters, 34% believe he is more
trustworthy and 14% think less trustworthy.
The kicker is that adults and voters are becoming more pessimistic about California, and voters more so than adults.
Californians' assessment of the direction the state is heading has taken a negative turn over the past
five months. Among adults, 51% believe California is seriously off on the wrong track, compared to
40% who feel the state is moving in the right direction. Among registered voters, sentiments are
even more pessimistic - 53% wrong track vs. 35% right direction. This represents a significant decline from the public's more positive than negative assessment of the state's overall direction last
fall.
My conclusions from seeing these figures is that the Governor's task of keeping up his approval ratings will become more difficulkt in the future because of the growing pessimism about the direction California is going.
On top of that is the recognition by voters that the Governor is more concerned with 'special interests" than with the ordinary voter. This is an issue that is working but has only just started. We need to wait to see how far this will go but we also need to push this "special interests" vulnerability.
The Governor's ratings are now at the level where other past Governors were defeated. I like the sound of that so let me repeat it. The Governor's ratings are now at the level where other past Governors were defeated, and he faces some very difficult times ahead.
Let's put pressure on him.