I've spent most of the last twenty-four hours over at MyDD immersed in long-term demographics. I am reposting a summary of my most interesting findings here.
So you think we need to reach values voters, otherwise known as white evangelicals, do you? Well, consider these facts:
- Non-Christians are the fastest growing demographic in America. In fact, 75% of the increase in the adult population of the United States from 1990 to 2001 came from non-Christians (source). Overall, in these eleven years the group almost exactly doubled in size, from 24.2 million people to 48.5 million.
- Those without religion have the highest retention rate of any religious group. Not only are they big, they are not going away. From 1990 to 2001, only 5% of those who said they had no religion found religion. No other religious group, except "non-denominational," had a single-digit drop out rate. (source)
- Non-Christians have a large electoral voice. In 2000, 22.9% of Gore voters were non-Christians. In 2004, 29.4% of Kerry voters were non-Christians. (source)
- Non-Christians are the fastest growing segment of the Democratic coalition. 70% of Kerry's eight million increase on Gore's vote total came from non-Christians. (source)
- Democrats are clobbering Republicans among the new non-Christian voters. Of the 6.5 million non-Christians who voted in 2004 but not in 2000, Kerry won 86% of the vote. (source)
Read this data again and tell me whose faith Democrats need to speak to. Read this data gain and tell me whether white evangelicals or non-Christians will have more influence over national politics in 2012 and beyond.
It is entirely possible, even likely, that by 2012, just seven years from now, non-Christians could make up one-third of the adult population of the United States (up form one-quarter right now). Right now, they vote for Democrats more than 70% of the time. Toss in the Christian African-American vote, and at current voting patterns Democrats would only need 37% of the non-black Christian vote in order to win 350 electoral votes every time. Now you tell me what religious demographics Democrats should be appealing to. You tell me what part of the Democratic base we need to nurture. You tell me the likelihood of "values voters" swinging another election.
Democrats face a choice. We can allay ourselves with easily the fastest growing demographic in America that clearly is willing to support us, or we can take the advice of pundit after pundit who tells us we need to appeal to the shrinking "values voters" white evangelicals who could not be more eager to reject us. I do not think this is a false choice, because I do not think it is possible to do both. I just don't see how you can appeal to Christian fundamentalists and non-Christians--most of whom have no religion at all--at the same time.
Two years from now, the number one topic of conversation on Democratic political blogs is going to be the Democratic Presidential nomination. Electability will inevitably play a huge part in that discussion. Whenever people start talking about which candidate can best express their faith, and possibly therefore who is the most electable, remember these numbers. We are riding a rising tidal wave that could potentially swamp the theocons out of power once and for all, but we can't ignore it and just hope it will continue to go our way. The political future of the country can belong to Democrats as long as Democrats realize who the religious future of America is going to be. We need to realize it too.