Ken Blackwell nay be the frontrunner for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in Ohio, a prospect which causes no end of consternation among more moderate Ohio Republicans. And rightward moves by Jim Petro and Betty Montgomery, Blackwell's challenger for the GOP nomination, may alienate moderate Republicans as well.
According to The Other Paper...
http://www.theotherpaper.com/cover.html
It used to be guys like [Tom] Green, a moderate Republican lobbyist, who were the center of power in the GOP. But that was before last November, when evangelicals turned out in record numbers to support the president and Issue 1, a measure that wrote a prohibition of legalized gay unions into the Ohio Constitution.
"I think in many counties, the Christian Coalition and other groups similarly situated resonated with voters," Green said. "And I think the message coming out of that is: We've gotta move as far right as we can without falling off the table, particularly with Ken Blackwell on the ticket."
Blackwell, Ohio's secretary of state, is the reason Green is so worried and [state senator Jim] Jordan is so excited.
Blackwell's challenging two establishment Republicans, state Auditor Betty Montgomery and state Attorney General Jim Petro, for the 2006 gubernatorial nomination.
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To the Republican old guard, the idea that religious folks are deciding the future of their party is maddening.
"That's probably the only group that gives his candidacy any legitimacy," said Republican lobbyist Neil Clark, "and I hope they're proud of that."
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And Republican candidates realize they can't afford to move apart from the likes of [Pastor Rod] Parsley, who heads an enormous congregation and broadcasts his Breakthrough TV program internationally.
Trying to win the GOP primary by beating Ohio evangelicals has ceased to be an option.
Sensing this, Petro abandoned his former pro-choice position before running for AG in 2002. But he fails a newer litmus test for socially conservative Republicans: the gay issue. He spoke out early against Issue 1, as well as the state legislature's 2004 ban on gay marriage, which passed earlier last year. Although he said he opposes gay marriage, he believed the measures to prohibit it went too far.
"I like Jim Petro," said arch-conservative Republican state Rep. Tom Brinkman. "Why he had to make the comments he did on Issue 1, I just can't understand it. I can't understand it."
By choosing far-right Cincinnatian Phil Heimlich as a running mate, Petro might persuade religious conservatives to reconsider him, Brinkman said.
Likewise, Montgomery's advisers hope that she can win over the right by bragging about her own support for Issue 1 and keeping God in the state motto.
But in the meantime, the rightward lurches of Petro and Montgomery have the people who already liked them scratching their heads.
"Many of us are concerned about that, but we're also sympathetic to why they need to do that," said Green. "This is a primary, and you've got to compute where those votes are going to come from. They're going to have to have a position to the right of where they feel comfortable."
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[Ohio GOP chairman Bob] Bennett said he thinks any of the three is capable of being elected governor next year, but [Columbus mayor Michael] Coleman's advisers think Blackwell would be the easiest to beat, and many Republicans of various ideologies heartily agree.
If Blackwell is the nominee, Green said many donors who have traditionally given to Republicans might start donating to Coleman or another Democrat.
"I think there's an awful lot of moderate folks out there who would find one candidate too extreme for their taste," Green said. "It does pose a significant dilemma for the Republican Party and an opportunity for the Democratic Party."
On the other hand, there could be consequences if the party bosses succeed in vanquishing Blackwell--especially in a bloody primary. Those enthusiastic evangelicals might not be so enthusiastic about voting next November.
"I think history will show that our people, if they disagree strongly with the individual on the ticket, have a tendency to stay home," said Bennett.
Green and Clark believe much of the blame for this dilemma goes to the Republican Party itself: It was Republican leaders who got values voters fired up about gays and other social issues last year in order to bring them to the polls for Bush. Now they're paying the price.
"I think," said Green, "they saw the Moral Majority and the Christian right to be allies of the Republican ticket, irregardless of who the ticket was. Now they're saying, 'What have we got here?'"
"We're heading for a train wreck in the Republican primary. The Christian Coalition and the far right is going to be a major player."
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Blackwell just might be the best thing that could have happened to Democrats in the Buckeye State.